Auto Club 400: Top Tier Elite Picks Revisited
Matt Kenseth
Starting: 15th
Happy hour 10 lap average ranking: 2nd
Chassis Selection: Using chassis RK-787 which raced at Texas last fall and finished 4th.
Pit stall location: Kenseth is pitting towards the start of pit road. Mike Bliss is pitting behind him and Josh Wise is pitting in front of him. I don’t expect either of these drivers will be on the lead lap come lap 40. I find this pit stall favorable for Kenseth.
What I said about him earlier this week:
I wouldn’t want to bet against this Roush Fenway Ford in the Auto Club 400. Kenseth is a three-time winner at Auto Club Speedway and last year he finished 4th. In 2011 on 2.0 mile ovals Kenseth had the second best average finish (5.3) and the second best average running position (5.0). At Las Vegas Kenseth had a top five car but late problems ruined his day. I would highly recommend Matt Kenseth to fantasy racers this week. Look for lots of experts to be jumping on the Roush Fenway bandwagon for this race.
What I’m thinking now:
Although he’s starting mid pack I think Kenseth will quickly climb towards the front. If you pick Kenseth I promise he won’t disappoint you. I think all the elements are in place for Kenseth to get a top five finish.
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Jimmie Johnson
Starting: 10th
Happy hour 10 lap average ranking: 5th
Chassis Selection: Using chassis No. 681 which won at Kansas last year (similar track).
Pit stall location: Johnson is pitting almost right in front of the start / finish line. Aric Almirola is pitting behind him and Landon Cassill is pitting in front of him. This should prove to be a favorable pit stall for Johnson. I expect Aric Almirola to always be behind Johnson and as a result he shouldn’t be a factor. Cassill most likely will not remain on the lead for to long in the Auto Club 400.
What I said about him earlier this week:
Jimmie Johnson is a juggernaut at Auto Club Speedway. Since 2007 Johnson has only finished lower than 3rd once at his home track. Last year he was leading coming to the white flag but Kevin Harvick passed him in the last set of turns. In the COT races at Fontana Johnson has the best driver rating in the series by a wide margin. His driver rating is 133.2 and Jeff Gordon has the second best (104.5). Some of his other notable loop data Auto Club COT stats are his average starting position (5.4), average running position (3.1), average finish (2.7) and laps led (630). These stats are why many will predict Johnson will win his first race of the season this Sunday.
What I’m thinking now: I think Johnson is a lock for a top five finish. This is his home track and he’s always good here.
Tony Stewart
Starting: 9th
Happy hour 10 lap average ranking: 9th
Chassis Selection: Brand new
Pit stall location: Stewart is pitting between the start finish line and the end of pit road. Regan Smith is pitting behind him and Marcos Ambrose is pitting in front of him. I think Ambrose might prove troublesome for Stewart and increase his difficulty exiting.
What I said about him earlier this week:
Tony Stewart has won the last three intermediate track races in a row. How can you not like that! Seriously. In 2010 Tony Stewart won the fall race at Auto Club Speedway. Last year at Fontana Stewart finished 13th but that’s only really because of how poorly her performed in a late race restart (Yahoo! race chart). Loop data wise last year he had the second best driver rating (117.3) and was the only driver who ran the entire race in the top fifteen.
What I’m thinking now: I think Tony Stewart has a very good chance to win his 4th straight intermediate track race in a row. Following Las Vegas even Jimmie Johnson admitted they have homework to do to beat the #14.
Carl Edwards
Starting: 12th
Happy hour 10 lap average ranking: 12th
Chassis Selection: Using chassis RK-782 which ran at Phoenix and New Hampshire last year.
Pit stall location: Casey Mears is pitting behind him and Paul Menard is pitting in front of him. I think Paul Menard’s pit location will increase his difficulty exiting pit road.
What I said about him earlier this week:
In 2008 Carl Edwards won the first COT race at Auto Club Speedway. Since then he has three other top tens in five races. Carl Edwards is an extremely consistent driver at Fontona. In 14 races at this 2.0 mile oval he has 11 top ten finishes. One slight concern about Edwards is that it appears he’s off his game this year. Regardless though I don’t expect a bad performance out of the #99 team in the Auto Club 400.
What I’m thinking now: I think Cousin Carl will be good for a mid single digit finish. If you pick this team you won’t be disappointed but I don’t think their ready to win yet.
Greg Biffle
Starting:4th
Happy hour 10 lap average ranking: 11th
Chassis Selection: Using chassis RK-786 which ran at Homestead last year.
Pit stall location: David Reutimann is pitting behind him and he has a clear exit out of his pit stall. This is a favorable pit stall.
What I said about him earlier this week:
Greg Biffle is the type of driver who you want on your fantasy team this week. He’s a former winner and Roush cars are always good at Auto Club Speedway. In four out of the last six races Biffle’s finished in the top eleven. Last year he started 32nd and finished 11th. What I really like about Biffle is how impressive he was at Las Vegas. He had the second best driver rating (121.8) and finished 3rd.
What I’m thinking now: I don’t see Biffle being the best of the Elite Top Tier drivers but I think he’s a lock for a top ten finish.
Kyle Busch
Starting: 2nd
Happy hour 10 lap average ranking: 3rd
Chassis Selection: Chassis not reported
Pit stall location: Marcos Ambrose it pitting behind him and he has a clear exit out of his pit stall. I think this will prove to be a favorable pit stall for Kyle Busch.
What I said about him earlier this week:
Kyle Busch absolutely dominated this race until the closing laps of last years Auto Club 400. He led 151 laps and recorded a 143.4 driver rating (best by 26.1). Last year on the 2.0 mile ovals Busch won one race and was the only driver who finished in the top five in all three races. On this style of track in 2011 he had a 2.3 average finish and a 3.7 average running position. In 2005 Busch won his first Sprint Cup Series race here.
What I’m thinking now: Joe Gibbs Racing cars were very quick in practice Saturday. Kyle Busch dominated this race last year and he’ll have another strong showing in the Auto Club 400. Everything I said about him earlier this week applies.
MORE RECOMMENDED READING FOR THE AUTO CLUB 400
[button link=”http://ifantasyrace.com/2012/03/24/fantasy-nascar-predictions-fontana-auto-club-400-post-happy-hour-post-qualifying/”]Auto Club 400 Post Happy Hour Predictions[/button]
[button link=”http://ifantasyrace.com/2012/03/24/average-practice-speeds-fontana-auto-club-400/”]Average Practice Speeds: Fontana Auto Club 400[/button]
