Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Martinsville – Goody’s Fast Relief 500
Should Be Another Good Weekend For MWR
After the Goody’s Fast Relief 500 on Sunday, the Sprint Cup Series will have its first off-weekend of the year for Easter before returning to Texas for some Saturday night racing on April 14. There weren’t many changes in my thoughts for who to pick this weekend from my Preview from earlier in the week (a few minor adjustments here and there). In case you missed my Average Practice Speeds post from Friday, you can view that by clicking here. Kasey Kahne won the delayed qualifying session and him, with Kevin Harvick alongside, will lead the field to the green on Sunday. The full starting lineup can be found by clicking here. Here’s an interesting fact: over the last six years (twelve races), the pole sitter at Martinsville averages a finish of 8.5 but has won the race just twice.
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Projected Start & Parkers: Scott Riggs, Michael McDowell, Reed Sorenson, and possibly Josh Wise.
My Probable Yahoo! Lineup: Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Clint Bowyer, Brian Vickers
Final Top Fifteen Ranking For the Goody’s Fast Relief 500:
1. Kevin Harvick – Starts 2nd – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
I might be the only guy this high on Harvick after practice, but I fully expect him to lead early and often on Sunday and as long as this team can keep up with the track, I think Happy will visit victory lane for the second-straight spring race here. Harvick was 2nd on the average speed chart and had the best ten-lap average during Happy Hour. As I said earlier this week, “Happy” wasn’t great at Martinsville until 2010. In the four races since, Harvick has posted three top 5s (he had brake issues in the other race) and led a total of 195 laps. It should be four straight top 5s at Martinsville for Kevin once it’s all said and done on Sunday. He’s dominating the truck race as I type this, for what that’s worth.
2. Kyle Busch – Starts 8th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
He wasn’t as fast in practice as I would have liked–considering I had him 1st in my Preview–but I’m still expecting a solid top 5 out of Kyle Busch on Sunday, and he should lead some laps as well. Rowdy put the #18 Toyota in 9th on the average speed chart and was in the top 10 during both practice sessions when it came to ten-lap average (3rd and 9th). If he wouldn’t have been put into the wall by Matt Kenseth last fall, Busch would have three straight top 5s at this track, and it’s only a matter of time before he finds victory lane at The Paperclip. It’s a little risky to take the #18 this weekend considering how they have run into some bad luck this season, but their solid run in Fontana is making me think that this team is starting to turn things around.
3. Jeff Gordon – Starts 9th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Virtually No Risk**
Remember a couple of weeks ago in Bristol when Brad Keselowski said he had the best car he’s ever had there and then went on to lead almost half of the laps and win the race? Well, in case you missed practice on Friday, Gordon said that his car this weekend was the best he’s ever had “this early” at Martinsville (he said this in first practice). That’s saying a whole lot considering Jeff has won here seven times and has twenty-five top 5s in thirty-eight starts. His practice speeds this week looked a lot like Denny Hamlin’s last week: first in both sessions, top of the board on the average speed chart, and first and second in the ten-lap average charts. I’d consider Gordon a lock for a top 5—he has finished there in thirteen of the last fourteen races—and should challenge for the win on Sunday.
4. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 14th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
I was watching Junior’s spotter’s twitter feed during practice on Friday and he really had nothing bad to say about this #88 Chevy. It’s always a good sign when the team is fine tuning on the car halfway through the first practice session of the weekend. Earnhardt ended up in 6th on the overall average speed chart and was was 5th on the ten-lap average during Happy Hour. He’s going to have a little bit of traffic to deal with once the green flag waves on Sunday, but I’m not too worried about it, considering he started in 26th and finished 2nd in this race last season. Junior is on a three-race streak of top 10s at Martinsville and I fully expect him to make it four-straight on Sunday. We might see him finally break his win-less streak, but a top 5 is much better possibility out of Earnhardt, Jr. in the Goody’s Fast Relief 500. His crew chief, Steve Letarte, sounded real happy with the car on Twitter.
5. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 22nd – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Hopefully, for Jimmie Johnson’s sake, there isn’t an early wreck on Sunday that he gets caught up in (he will start mid-pack). Because of that chance, I changed Five Time from “Virtually No Risk” up to “Low Risk” for this Martinsville event. Still, he should have a good car once again here and is a lock for a top 10 in my mind with a good chance of a top 5. Johnson ran the most laps of anyone in the two practice sessions on Friday (170 total) and although he was 30th on the average speed chart, the #48 Chevy ended up in 2nd and 6th on the ten-lap average charts. Jimmie’s average finish of 5.5 at this track is the best in the series, as I’m sure you’ve already read many times this week.
6. Denny Hamlin – Starts 3rd – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
I was actually a little surprised by Hamlin’s 3rd-place qualifying effort. The #11 Toyota wasn’t slow by any means in practice (3rd on the average speed chart) but Denny was really complaining about his car. Hopefully Darian Grubb will be able to adjust it, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see Hamlin drop in the first run or two of the Goody’s Fast Relief 500. Still, I’m not worried about a bad run out of Denny this weekend. He has the second-best average finish at Martinsville (6.5) and has won four of the last eight events. The #11 ended up in 14th on the ten-lap average chart in Happy Hour, but that doesn’t worry me a whole lot because of who the driver is–Hamlin will still be a good pick on Sunday.
7. Clint Bowyer – Starts 4th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I’m really expecting another big day out of Michael Waltrip Racing on Sunday, with Clint Bowyer leading the way for the three-car stable. As I said in my Preview on Wednesday, the last five spring races at Martinsville have ended with Clint in 11th, 10th, 5th, 7th, and 9th. He also has the ninth-best average driver rating in the series here over the last two years (90.0). The #15 Toyota ended up in 7th on the average speed chart and 3rd in ten-lap average during Happy Hour. Clint will start the Goody’s Fast Relief 500 in 4th, which will be his second-best start in his thirteen career races at The Paperclip.
8. Ryan Newman – Starts 5th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Newman has had a pretty quiet weekend, in my opinion anyway. However, he’ll start the Goody’s Fast Relief 500 in 5th and has had a very consistent car all weekend. The Rocketman ended up in 4th on the average speed chart and was in the top 10 in both practice sessions when it came to ten-lap average. It’s a flat track race this weekend so Newman is generally a good pick. His average finish here is 14.4 in twenty career starts and he owns ten top 10s finishes. If nothing goes wrong on Sunday, expect the #39 team to notch their third top 10 of the 2012 season.
9. Brad Keselowski – Starts 7th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
One driver that kept sticking out to me during the practice sessions (for some reason) was Brad Keselowski and the Blue Deuce. He ended up 13th on the average speed chart and was 7th in Happy Hour in ten-lap average. BK started in 3rd in the fall race here last season and had a top 10 car for most of the day before falling back late and finishing 17th (Yahoo! chart here). This Sunday, he will start in 7th and I expect the same kind of run for Keselowski, although hopefully he doesn’t fall back in the end and gets the finish he deserves. Let’s not forget that Bad Brad won the most recent short track race and led almost half of the laps in that race. In four career starts here, Keselowski has never finished worse than 19th and has completed all but two laps. If you want to be different in the A group, you might want to take a shot with the Blue Deuce on Sunday.
10. Joey Logano – Starts 10th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Sliced Bread really got the hang of this track in his second career start here and hasn’t really looked back. He hasn’t finished worse than 18th in the last five races at Martinsville and even finished 2nd and 6th here in 2010. Joey wasn’t great on the average speed chart (he ended up 18th) but was in the top 10 in both practice sessions when it came to ten-lap average, and we all know how good the Gibbs cars are when the series stops at The Paperclip. You never truly know what you’re going to get when you pick Logano, but I think he should challenge for a top 10 on Sunday.
11. Paul Menard – Starts 11th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
Sleeper alert! Menard was on my avoid list earlier in the week, but I really think he could get a career-best finish here this weekend. He’ll roll off of the grid in 11th, and I think Paul will run top 15 all race. He was 8th on the average speed chart and ended up 6th and 11th in ten-lap average during the two practice sessions on Friday. He finished 14th and 13th at The Paperclip in 2010 while driving for Richard Petty Motorsports, which are Menard’s two best finishes here in nine career starts. His average finish of 22.7 is what puts Paul in the High Risk category this weekend, as well as the fact that he usually is somewhat of a risky pick.
12. Martin Truex, Jr. – Starts 13th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Speaking of sleeper, here’s my dark horse pick of the week: Martin Truex, Jr. His average finish of 9.6 in the last ten Sprint Cup races wouldn’t put Truex anywhere near the sleeper category, but his record at Martinsville will: twelve starts, an average finish of 22.8, and just three top 10s. However, I’m expecting a solid day out of the #56 team on Sunday, and this ranking could prove to be a little too low once the checkered flag waves. He finished 8th in the fall event here last season and Truex had the 4th-best ten-lap average during Happy Hour. He was also 12th on the overall average speed chart from the practice sessions on Friday.
13. Tony Stewart – Starts 15th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I’m not expecting anything great out of Smoke on Sunday, but he should still be a decent pick. His average finish here in twenty-six career starts is 13.4 and that’s where I think Stewart will end up in this year’s Goody’s Fast Relief 500. He’ll roll off the grid in 15th and could run top 10 if Steve Addington can adjust the #14 Chevy correctly. His teammate should be good on Sunday so hopefully Newman and Stewart can share notes. Smoke was 16th on the average speed chart and was 12th and 25th in ten-lap average during the two practice sessions. These lower numbers are to be expected out of him, though, as Stewart rarely looks good in those categories unless his car is really fast. There are definitely better picks than Tony this weekend, but I don’t see him ending up too bad.
14. Kasey Kahne – Starts 1st – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
With such a terrible start to this season, I expect Kasey to ride around and just get the finish on Sunday (kind of like what he did in Fontana last week). He will start from the pole but I don’t expect the #5 Chevy to lead many laps at all. Kahne ended up in 14th on the average speed chart and hasn’t finished better than 14th in the last ten Martinsville races. His switch to Hendrick should help him at Martinsville, but there are way more better picks than Kahne this weekend. If you want to take the risk, good luck to you, but Kahne won’t find any of my rosters. He was 15th on the ten-lap average chart in Happy Hour.
15. Brian Vickers – Starts 6th – Yahoo! C Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
The Sheriff should your C Group pick no matter what this weekend, as I’m sure you have read all week. As I said before, I’m expecting another good day out of Michael Waltrip Racing, and that includes Brian Vickers and this #55 Toyota. The 6th-place qualifying run was the most surprising to me on Saturday (Jimmie Johnson’s was a close second) and I really think Vickers could run top 15 on Sunday. He ended up 15th on the average speed chart and had the 5th-best ten-lap average in first practice. He has three finishes of 11th or better in his last six starts at Martinsville and let’s not forget about his top 5 run a couple weeks ago in Bristol.
Those To Avoid For The Goody’s Fast Relief 500:
Juan Montoya – I had him as a driver to avoid in my Preview from Wednesday, so I hope you listened to me. If not, please don’t start Montoya. He ended up in 11th on the overall average speed chart, but remember how I said to avoid anyone who doesn’t make the ten-lap average chart in either practice? Juan’s the only driver who didn’t. This team has been searching all weekend and I just don’t see Montoya ending up anywhere near the lead lap on Sunday.
Roush-Fenway Racing – Yes, all three of them (Greg Biffle, Carl Edwards, and Matt Kenseth) shouldn’t find anyone’s rosters this weekend. This has probably been pounded into your head all week if you read fantasy racing articles online, so you should know how terrible this entire organization is at this track. The best qualifying effort of all three was Kenseth with 21st. Any of them will be extremely lucky to finish in the top 10, although a top 15 may be possible. If I had to pick between the three, The Biff would get my vote.
Kurt Busch – Here’s another guy that–with a little bit of luck–could crack to the top 15 on Sunday but there are simply too many other picks that would be better than the elder Busch brother this weekend. He’ll start near the back (40th) due to the oil spill on Saturday morning, but he got to re-do his qualifying run so I was a little surprised Busch was so bad. The last three Martinsville races have ended with Kurt in 14th, 16th, and 16th while driving for Penske.
