Texas Samsung Mobile 500: Fantasy NASCAR “Top Tier Elite” Picks

Tony Stewart – I know I wouldn’t want to bet against him in the Samsung Mobile 500. Stewart has now won the last four intermediate track races in a row. Can he make it five? Absolutely. His intermediate track winning streak started last fall at Texas. In the 2011 fall race he led 173 laps and had a second place average running position. I fully expect Stewart to be the top prediction by many experts as to who will win the Samsung Mobile 500.

Matt Kenseth – Kenseth is the defending champion at Texas Motor Speedway. Last spring he started 4th, led 169 laps and had an average running position of 2nd. Since 2007 Kenseth has absolutely dominated the competition. In this time span he has the best average finish (5.7, only driver with a single digit avg finish), best average running position (8.6), best driver rating (109.9), ran the most laps in the top fifteen (84.8% of laps ran), and he’s led the second most laps (441). Kenseth has been really impressive across the board this year and I think there’s no question he’ll be one of the drivers to beat Saturday night.

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Jimmie Johnson – I like Johnson every week but I’m a little luke warm on him this week. Johnson has had awful luck this year. The #48 team still hasn’t put together a full race this year at their best. Another thing that makes me a little nervous about picking Johnson is that he really hasn’t been that good in the last three races at Texas (9th, 8th and 14th). Those aren’t bad finishes but I want more out of a “Top Tier Elite” driver when I pick them. In seventeen races at Texas Johnson has one win and twelve top ten finishes.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. – In 2000 Dale Earnhardt Jr. won his very first race at Texas. With the way he’s performed on the track this year he could very well be poised for a second win. At Las Vegas (1.5 mile track like Texas) Earnhardt Jr. led 70 laps and finished 10th. At California (2.0 mile intermediate) he finished 3rd. Earnhardt Jr. has been really good on long runs this year and at Texas there will be plenty of them. Last year at Texas Junior finished 8th and 9th.

Denny Hamlin – Last year Denny Hamlin finished 15th and 20th at Texas but in the three previous races he finished 1st, 1st and second. The #11 Toyota looked really good at Auto Club Speedway and I think that will carry over to Texas. Since his TMS debut in the fall 2005 race Hamlin has the second best average finish in the series (10.2) and he’s only finished lower than 20th once. That’s the definition of a safe pick.

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