Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Texas – Samsung Mobile 500

Can Smoke Win Again In The Lonestar State?

I’m going to go off of history at Texas and how drivers have done on the intermediates this year mostly when making my picks for the Samsung Mobile 500 over practice speeds because I think the practices were somewhat worthless due to the fact that the cars weren’t on the track under any condition that will be what it will be like for the race. I’m still going to use the speeds, though, because I like to have current data, and it doesn’t hurt to be fast in alternate conditions. In case you missed it, my Average Practice Speeds article from earlier can be found by clicking here. Martin Truex, Jr. won the pole for Saturday night’s race–edging out Matt Kenseth–and the complete starting lineup can be found by clicking here.

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Projected Start & Parkers: Mike Bliss, Michael McDowell, Scott Riggs, and Josh Wise, and J.J. Yeley.

My Probable Yahoo! Lineup: Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle, Martin Truex, Jr., Trevor Bayne

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Final Top Fifteen Ranking For The Samsung Mobile 500:

6. Kevin Harvick – Starts 15th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

I’m a little scared to pick Harvick this week after the major disappointment a couple of weeks ago in Martinsville, but as I always say, the key to winning in fantasy racing is to forget about things quick. “Happy” has been good on the intermediates this season–with finishes of 11th and 4th–and he has the fifth-best average driver rating in those two races (chart here). The #29 was 5th on the average speed chart but didn’t end up making a run of ten consecutive laps in either practice, which I don’t like. I’m going to check out the crew chief notes tomorrow to see if Shane Wilson says anything about this Chevy.

7. Denny Hamlin – Starts 13th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Denny said this is the best car he has ever had at Texas. With that being said, this is the same guy that said his car was the best for two months straight last season. After that, I kind of stopped listening to Hamlin, but I still note things he says. Anyway, Denny has eight top 10s in thirteen starts at Texas and won both races here in 2010. His average finish of 10.2 here is second-best in the series. Hamlin was 11th on the average speed chart and ended up in 12th in terms of ten-lap average in Happy Hour. This ranking is probably too high but the next four or five are real close in my mind and Hamlin was pretty strong at Fontana.

8. Ryan Newman – Starts 6th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

The Rocketman still has top 10 potential in my mind even though he hasn’t looked great all weekend (except in qualifying). He was 20th in Happy Hour when it came to ten-lap average and Newman wound up in 18th on the average speed chart. In the two intermediate track races of 2012, the #39 has ended up 4th and 7th, and Newman has the seventh-best average driver rating in those two races (chart here). Also, you know I don’t like to go against the most recent winner. Newman hasn’t finished better than 11th in the last six Texas races, but he also hasn’t finished worse than 20th, so at least he’s consistent.

9. Clint Bowyer – Starts 18th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

Clint and the #15 has been somewhat disappointing this weekend, but his teammates are super fast and this is a good track for him (seventh best on the circuit, statistically). In twelve starts here, Bowyer owns seven top 10s and an average finish of 13th. He’ll start the Samsung Mobile 500 about mid pack (18th), but he started there in the last race here and finished a solid 9th. I could see it happening again. Bowyer was 10th on the average speed chart and was 15th in Happy Hour when it came to ten-lap average. He finished 6th at Las Vegas and 13th at Fontana.

10. Mark Martin – Starts 4th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

When Mark Martin speaks highly about his car, I listen. However, when he says it’s “great,” lately it simply means it has top 10 potential and that’s about it. The #55 turned the fastest lap on Thursday and was in the top 5 for ten-lap average in Happy Hour. On the overall average speed chart, Martin ended up 19th. He struggled here last season, but six of the last eight Texas races have ended with Martin in the top 12. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see him around there on Saturday night, either.  I have him as “Medium Risk” because Martin hasn’t been as good as advertised on the intermediates yet this season (18th at Las Vegas and 12th at Fontana).

11. Kasey Kahne – Starts 5th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**

As I said in my Preview earlier this week, Kahne just needs to get a finish, and he’ll probably do exactly what he did in Fontana and be conservative and bring the #5 Chevy home in one piece. I see him as top 15 material going into the race but he could end up top 10 by the end of it. Kahne was 2nd on the average speed chart but just 17th in terms of ten-lap average.  He’s “High Risk” for obvious reasons. In the last four events here, Kasey has finished 3rd, 21st, 13th, and 5th. His career average finish here is 19.6. If you put Kahne on your roster(s) this weekend, I hope, for you’re sake, he doesn’t wreck…again.

12. Kyle Busch – Starts 17th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

During Happy Hour, it was reported that Rowdy said the #18 was basically junk, but he says that all the time so you can make up your mind on whether he’s serious or not. He put the #18 Toyota in 21st on the average speed chart–which is nothing out of the ordinary–and was 8th in Happy Hour when it came to ten-lap average. As I said in my Preview earlier this week, I wasn’t real sure what to expect out of Kyle Busch this weekend in Texas, and that still holds true now after qualifying. He arguably had the best car in Fontana and owns an average finish of 16.2 here, with just five top 10s in thirteen career starts.

13. Tony Stewart – Starts 29th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

Very rarely will you see a driver go from #1 in my Preview to being on the “Avoid” list in my Predictions, but Smoke almost accomplished that this weekend. Neither of his cars have had any speed at all and going to a backup just put this team behind that much more. Still, the #14 has a new engine in it and this is the same chassis now that Stewart won with at this track last November. Now it’s going to come down to the adjustments by the team, and if they go the wrong way to start the race, Stewart could find himself a lap down quick. I don’t see that happening, though, and I’m expecting a top 15 for Smoke, with a top 10 possible. It’s hard to say how good this car could be due to the limited track time. He had the 9th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour.

14. Carl Edwards – Starts 20th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

I believe DW used the term “devil car” to describe the #99 Ford during qualifying. It’s almost surprising that Edwards, Kenseth, and Biffle are all on the same team because their cars are so much better than Cousin Carl’s. He was 4th on the average speed chart, but that’s to be expected. What kind of worries me is that Edwards never made one single run of ten consecutive laps in either practice session. Although it’s not as bad as on a short track, I take that as the team was searching the entire time. Carl has an average finish of 15.5 at Texas and has recorded six top 10s in his fourteen career starts at this track.

15. Brad Keselowski – Starts 8th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

The Blue Deuce has been a top 15 car at both intermediate tracks in 2012 and I expect that to continue at Texas on Saturday night. He has a good starting spot (tied for the best of his career here actually) and has finished in the teens in two of the last four events here. Keselowski was one of four drivers to go over 100 laps in practice, and judging by his low placement on the average speed chart, they were probably working on the long runs. BK ended up 16th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour. His team mate, A.J. Allmendinger, looks pretty sporty as well, and is coming off some momentum with a 2nd-place finish in Martinsville. Keep an eye on him.

Just Missed The Top Fifteen…A.J. Allmendinger, Paul Menard, Marcos Ambrose.

Three Sleepers For Saturday Night:

1. Kurt Busch – His practice speeds in Happy Hour really caught my eye, and although I’m not leaning on them too much this weekend, this car was driven to a 12th-place finish by Landon Cassill at Michigan last year. Kurt was 7th on the average speed chart and even 7th on the ten-lap average chart in Happy Hour. A top 15 wouldn’t surprise me…but neither would a DNF. Busch has to get some luck soon, right? He won here in 2009.

2.

Those To Avoid For The Samsung Mobile 500:

Juan Montoya – Copied from my Preview on Wednesday: “In the seven starts here that Montoya has finished at least one lap down, he owns an average finish of 26.6. His average driver rating in the first two intermediate tracks this year has been 59.0. I wouldn’t expect much out of the #42 this weekend.” He ran a total of 62 laps in both practice sessions combined and couldn’t find speed at all.

Jeff Gordon – There’s just no reason to take the risk of picking Gordon this week. He hasn’t shown much speed this weekend and has finished 23rd or worse in three of the last four Texas races. Jeff’s average driver rating in the first two intermediate races of 2012 is 86.7 and this team has just seemed a bit off on them once again to start out the season (remember last year?). With the way his luck has been going, just wait until Jeff gets a good run under his belt before picking him on tracks where he isn’t awesome.

Aric Almirola – There are three better options than the #43 this weekend in the C group. I’d rather use Almirola on short tracks because he’s been very disappointing on the cookie cutters thus far in 2012.