Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Kansas – STP 400

“A mountain green colored race car is a fast race car.”

That quote is from Jimmie Johnson, which he said on Twitter after Happy Hour on Friday (click here to view). Practice speeds were somewhat inconclusive (to say the least) this week, and if you don’t know why you can check out my Average Practice Speeds post from Friday by clicking here. For that reason, you will see me refer to Twitter posts in this article a lot and I’ll be going off of history more than usual. I won’t be making up my mind on my rosters until I read the crew chief notes, either. Hopefully for the race in Richmond next weekend NASCAR.com can get their technical difficulties figured out–although I wouldn’t hold my breath on that. You can buy table runner here for the best camp in mountain race.

If you predicted how qualifying would go, I suggest you go out and buy a lottery ticket. I’m still baffled, as only four of the drivers I thought would start top 10 after practice actually will. A.J. Allmendinger won the pole for Sunday’s race, his first at the track and by-far his best effort (previously 14th). The full starting lineup can be found by clicking here.

Projected Start & Parkers: Joe Nemechek, Scott Riggs, David Stremme, Josh Wise, and Mike Bliss.

My Probable Yahoo! Lineup: Jimmie Johnson, Mark Martin, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., (see below for C group driver)

Notice some drivers missing? Become an ifantasyrace.com member to view this article in its entirety (more information by clicking here).

Final Top Fifteen Ranking For The STP 400:

6. Kevin Harvick – Starts 2nd – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

The old rule of thumb for Kevin Harvick was that if he qualified well, go ahead and put him on your roster. Notice I said old rule of thumb. This team, quite simply, just has this qualifying gig figured out in 2012. Harvick started 2nd in Las Vegas, followed that up with a 7th at Fontana, and most recently started 15th in Texas. The #29 Chevy ended up 11th, 4th, and 9th in those races, respectively, and I wouldn’t expect anything less than a top 10 out of Harvick on Sunday. This is by far his best qualifying effort at Kansas (previous best 10th) and in the last six events here, “Happy” has finished 11th or better in five of them. He was also 7th on the ten-lap average chart in Happy Hour, although was one of the drivers that didn’t register on the speed charts in Happy Hour, so I don’t have a full average speed for him (yes, I know what his one fast lap was). As I said in my Preview this week, Harvick is one of only three drivers this season to have a triple-digit driver rating in all intermediate races.

7. Kasey Kahne – Starts 9th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**

Kahne is in the “High Risk” category for good reason this week, but one key to gaining major points in fantasy racing is to go against the grain at times. I’m starting to get some confidence in Kasey after his top 10 in Texas last weekend, and I think he’s going to have another good run in Kansas on Sunday. The #5 had the best ten-lap average in Happy Hour and Kahne looked pretty good on the overall average speed chart. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.’s spotter tweeted during practice a simple “5 is fast.” Kahne finished 2nd here last fall while still with Red Bull Racing, and has ended up in 14th or better in three of the last four Kansas events. His qualifying lap looked like it was going to be terrible but Kahne recovered nicely.

8. Carl Edwards – Starts 21st – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

If Cousin Carl is going to really break out and get over this “hangover,” this team is going to need to start qualifying better, especially on the cookie cutter tracks. In those events in 2012, Edwards is averaging a start of 18.5, with three of the four (yes, I am including this weekend’s race) being 20th or worse. What is good, though, is that Edwards has finished in the top 10 in all three of the intermediate track races so far this season, and I fully expect him to continue that tomorrow. In nine career starts at Kansas, Carl has recorded seven top 10s and an average finish of 10.7. What I like this weekend is that he had the third-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour, better than even Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth. Edwards didn’t look too bad on the overall average speed chart, either.

9. Martin Truex, Jr. – Starts 6th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Really the only reason that Truex is considered “Medium Risk” this week is because he’s been borderline terrible at Kansas thus far in his career. In seven career starts here, Martin owns an average finish of 26.3 and has finished 20th or worse in five of them. Like I said in my Preview, though, I’m starting to consider Truex as the Brad Keselowski of last season and I’m throwing out all of his previous history on tracks. All of the Michael Waltrip Racing Toyotas sand-bagged in first practice, and it paid off because they’re all three starting inside the top 8 on Sunday. Truex was 6th on the ten-lap average chart in Happy Hour and was also one of those drivers who had most of his statistics missing in Happy Hour. On the intermediate tracks this season, Martin has the seventh-best average driver rating (chart here) and average finish (chart here). Momentum, momentum, momentum. If you visit Jayski frequently, you know that Martin Truex, Jr. has the second-most points in the last ten Sprint Cup races.

10. Tony Stewart – Starts 23rd – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Here’s one driver I’m really not 100% sure what to think about this weekend. Considering the fact at how flat-out terrible he was in Texas last Saturday night, I just may stay away from Smoke all-together. He looked great in first practice, posting the second-best ten-lap average and working on long runs (he ran 41 laps). He ran a bunch of laps in Happy Hour, too (43 total), but Stewart was one of those with the majority of his statistics missing. Tony has finished 15th or better in each of the last four Kansas events, and I consider him to have a top 15 car with a good shot at a top 10 going into the race on Sunday. It’s hard to look past last week, but as I always say, it’s good to have a short memory sometimes when it comes to fantasy racing.

11. Jeff Gordon – Starts 20th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

What is giving Jeff Gordon this ranking is two things: one, how impressive he was in Texas last weekend (despite starting way back), and two, his record at this track. In twelve career starts at Kansas, Jeff has recorded eight top 10 finishes, and he has five top 5s in the last six events here. The lone exception was the fall race in Kansas least season, when the #24 lost an engine while running in the top 5 for much of the race (Yahoo! chart here). He went on to Twitter (read here) after qualifying and basically said they suck at it this year, so I’m not too worried that the #24 will roll off of the grid in 20th on Sunday. Gordon ended up 11th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour and was 3rd in that category in the first practice session on Friday.

12. Clint Bowyer – Starts 8th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

When you look at the ten-lap average charts in Happy Hour, the Michael Waltrip Racing Toyotas look pretty good. Mark Martin looks solid, Martin Truex, Jr. looks solid…and then there’s Clint Bowyer. He’s been the worst of the trio on the intermediate tracks thus far in 2012, as surprising as that may seem, and I’m expecting the same on Sunday. However, I still think Bowyer should be top 15 material and may grab a top 10 with some good strategy. This is his hometown track, so I guess Clint will be putting more effort in than usual, and it is also, statistically, his sixth-best track on the circuit. Bowyer’s average finish here is 12th and he has completed all but two laps in his seven career starts here.

13. Ryan Newman – Starts 13th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

The Rocketman ran 107 laps in the two practice sessions combined on Friday, so they probably tried many different things. He ended up in 13th on the ten-lap average chart in Happy Hour, and I’m still thinking he’s not much better than a teens pick on Sunday. In twelve career starts at this track, Newman owns an average finish of 17.3 and has recorded just four top 10s. This team was real disappointing in Texas last weekend, and for those expecting a top 10 run out of the #39 on Sunday, prepared to be disappointed once again. In the last five races here, Ryan has finished 18th, 15th, 9th, 22nd, and 16th. As far as the B group goes, there are too many other options to waste a start on Newman.

14. Kurt Busch – Starts 14th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

He was my sleeper of the week on Wednesday, and that stays true going into the STP 400 on Sunday. Kurt actually qualified a little better than I thought he would and in this race last season he led 152 laps en-route to a 9th place finish. What’s even better for those thinking of Busch as a sleeper this weekend is that in the last two intermediate races this year (Fontana and Texas) he finished 9th and 13th. Kurt was actually better than Greg Biffle in overall average speed.

15. Brad Keselowski – Starts 11th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**

It’s really hard to put a solid prediction on Brad Keselowski and the Blue Deuce this weekend. He’s shown some speed on the intermediates this year (like last week in Texas when he was running top 10 until his problem) and was great at this track in 2011. As you probably remember, Keselowski won this event on a fuel mileage gamble, but he was running top 15 for most of that race (Yahoo! chart here). He followed that up with a solid 3rd-place effort in the fall, and looked even better in that race than the spring (Yahoo! chart here). What’s concerning to me, though, is the issues that Penske Racing is having this year, especially with fuel (which is what happened to BK last week). This is why I’m considering Brad “High Risk” for Sunday, and that also applies to his team mate, A.J. Allmendinger. They were 14th and 15th, respectively, in ten-lap average during the Happy Hour practice session. You could flip a coin between the two for this ranking.

Who Should I Pick In C Group?

I talked to a few people this week on Twitter on why you shouldn’t even put Aric Almirola on your Yahoo! rosters on intermediate tracks. He’s not going to get a good qualifying position, so why even waste the spot? Instead, I said in my Preview (click here) to choose between David Reutimann or Casey Mears because they will get you almost (or usually more) points than the #43. This week, I went with Reutimann and Sam Hornish, Jr. and I don’t think I could be in a better position. I hope you listened to me, as Hornish will start 10th on Sunday and Reutimann in 16th. So, who should you start? Here’s what I’m thinking:

Those To Avoid For The STP 400:

Joey Logano – There are several reasons why Logano looks like a good pick this week. First, he went out first in qualifying and held the pole for most of the session until he was beat by just A.J. Allmendinger and Kevin Harvick. Second, he had the 10th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour, and wasn’t terrible on the overall average speed chart. Finally, although Joey will start in the rear of the field on Sunday, we saw many drivers last week in Texas drive up through the pack, even without the help of cautions. Don’t be fooled. First, this race is a full 100 miles (20%) shorter than the Texas event. Also, the #20 Toyota has always looked better on Friday and Saturday this year than it actually is on Sunday. Joey has just finished one race this season in a spot better than he qualified, and that was the Daytona 500. He also has a history of qualifying well here but not finishing well. In 2010 fall, Logano started 4th and finished 17th, and in this event last season he started 5th but finished 23rd. There’s just too many better options than him this weekend. Also, if you plan on starting him in NASCAR.com Fantasy Live, please remember that his starting spot in that game will be recorded as 3rd.

Marcos Ambrose – He was on my list of drivers to keep an eye on this weekend, but go ahead and take him off any roster you planned on starting him. Ambrose will start in 28th and when you look at his history (click here), you will notice that when he qualifies poorly on the intermediates, he generally races poorly as well. He didn’t make the ten-lap average chart in either session and his average speed (although it was limited to just first practice) screams “don’t take me!” Maybe next week.

Earnhardt-Ganassi – I don’t know what happened to Juan Montoya and Jamie McMurray in qualifying, but when drivers such as Scott Riggs, J.J. Yeley, and Travis Kvapil end up faster than you, there’s usually something majorly wrong.