Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Richmond – Capital City 400

“Epic Swag” Looking Good

We’re going to have some good old fashioned Saturday night racing tomorrow night, so it’s fitting that Mark Martin and that #55 Toyota are fast…again. Just like in Phoenix, “Epic Swag” grabbed the pole for Saturday night’s race. Carl Edwards will start 2nd, followed by Kevin Harvick and the sudden qualifying rocket A.J. Allmendinger. The full starting lineup can be found by clicking here. Once again the NASCAR.com Lap Tracker was messed up in Happy Hour–I could complain for days–and the average practice speeds were a bit messed up. The post still went up, though, and it can be found by clicking here.

Projected Start & Parkers: Mike Bliss, Joe Nemechek, Michael McDowell, David Stremme, and Scott Speed.

My Probable Yahoo! Lineup: Denny Hamlin, Mark Martin, Clint Bowyer, Aric Almirola

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Final Top Fifteen Ranking For The Capital City 400:

11. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 10th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium**

First off, I think that there’s just too many other options that you can take over Junior this weekend. I think he’ll be top 15 on Saturday night, but not much better. He didn’t show up in either practice on the ten-lap average chart–which I always take notice to, on the smaller tracks especially–and Earnhardt was one of the drivers that was missing on the Happy Hour lap tracker. He finished 14th at Phoenix earlier this year and I expect about the same kind of race from the #88 team this weekend in Richmond. Also, in the last eleven races here, Junior has just one finish better than 13th. However, I’ve heard many times today that he loves his car, so that’s good to hear, and it’s hard to go against a guy that hasn’t finished worse than 15th all season thus far.

12. Joey Logano – Starts 18th – Yahoo! B Group

**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

I think people are a little cautious of picking Sliced Bread (only 14% picked him in Yahoo!), and for good reason because he hasn’t finished in the top 10 for nearly two months. While I don’t think we’re going to see him up there this weekend either, I think the #20 team has a good shot at a top 15 on Saturday night. Plus, this is Gibbs’ track, so I like that as well. Logano was able to lay down the 5th-fastest lap in first practice, so I thought he might have a better qualifying effort than he did, but obviously I was wrong. In Happy Hour, Joey put that #20 in 12th on the ten-lap average chart. What I really like with this guy this weekend is how he was at Phoenix earlier this year (Yahoo! chart here) and his four finishes of 16th or better in the last five Richmond races. Joey ran pretty well here last fall until the engine problems hit (Yahoo! chart here).

13. A.J. Allmendinger – Starts 4th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

SLEEPER ALERT!! Once again, Allmendinger qualifies up front. This is the third time thus far in 2012, and in the two previous races (Bristol and Kansas), A.J. has led 54 and 44 laps, respectively. But that’s not why I’m considering him a sleeper, as that’s not a very good reason to pick him. He put the Double Deuce in the top 10 in both practice sessions when it came to ten-lap average, and his record at Richmond here lately has been pretty good. In the last three races here, Allmendinger has finished 11th, 7th, and 8th. Let’s not forget that Kurt Busch finished 5th here last fall in this car. As long as the bad luck bug doesn’t bite him again, Allmendinger could challenge for a top 10 on Saturday night. What worries me is that this team has been terrible at adjusting on the car all season.

14. Brad Keselowski – Starts 16th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Bad Brad caught my eye in both practice sessions simply by looking at the ten-lap average charts. In the first session, Keselowski ended up 10th on the chart, and in Happy Hour he ended up 2nd. His qualifying effort, though, was a little surprising; in five career starts at Richmond, Brad has started in the top 10 at four of them. However, I’m not really worried about it because 16th isn’t too bad. Keselowski is somewhat hit-or-miss here: he has finished 36th and 38th in 2009 and 2011 but also 14th, 15th, and 12th in 2010 and 2011. I think he has the potential to be top 15 again, but if you’re into weird trends you might want to stay away from Keselowski until next weekend, as every other weekend he seems to finish bad (look here).

15. Greg Biffle – Starts 28th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

He’s pretty much getting this ranking because of how great this team has been in 2012. The Biff was one of those cars that–I think–the crew chiefs just weren’t expecting the track to change that much in qualifying. He’ll have some cars to pass, but I still think he could get a top 15. He finished 15th and 13th here last year, and has an average finish of 16.6 in nineteen career starts at Richmond. Greg should be used to not qualifying well here, though: in the last ten races here, he has just two starts better than 20th. I wouldn’t recommend using Biffle if you’re in an allocation league.

Those To Avoid For The Capital City 400:

Paul Menard – In case you didn’t listen to me earlier in the week, Menard’s re-occurring throttle problems in practice should scare you off completely. Here’s what I said on Wednesday in my Fantasy Preview article: “You don’t have to look at the stat sheet too long to realize that Paul Menard simply is not good here. He finished 16th here in his first start, but in the nine events since, Paul hasn’t ended up on the lead lap once and also hasn’t notched a finish better than 26th. In the last three races here, Menard has qualified 15th, 10th, and 7th, but finished those events in 34th, 37th, and 26th, respectively.”

Matt Kenseth – No point in wasting a pick on Kenseth this week when he’s probably going to finish in the teens. The #17 team might be able to pull out  a top 10, but why take the risk in picking Matt at Richmond? His average finish in twenty-four starts has been 17.3 and he hasn’t posted a top 10 finish here since 2007.