Talladega Aaron’s 499: Fantasy NASCAR “Mid Pack Projections” and big name drivers to avoid
Jeff Burton – Burton’s been pretty sporty at Talladega. Since 2008 he has the best driver rating at this wild car track. In this select group of races he’s finished in the top twelve in five of the last eight races. In the 2011 fall race Burton was leading coming to the white flag but teammate Clint Bowyer passed him on the last lap. In this years Daytona 500 Jeff Burton finished 5th and led 24 laps. My main concern about Burton is that since Bristol he’s finished 22nd or worse every race (25.2 avg finish over the last five races in 2012). (Yahoo! B Driver)
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Juan Pablo Montoya – Since 2005 Juan Pablo Montoya has the 8th best average finish at Talladega (17.1). Just because he has the 8th best average finish in this select group of races doesn’t mean you should pick him. He has three top ten finishes and in all of his other races he’s finished 15th or worse. Last year at Dega he finished 30th and 23rd. Look for Montoya to run in the back of the pack for much of the race with Jamie McMurray. These two teammates will make their move in about the final quarter of the race. (Yahoo! B Driver)
Paul Menard – In 2011 no driver scored more points on restrictor plate tracks then Paul Menard. Don’t get to carried away with this stat though. There wasn’t a single driver who finished in the top ten more than twice. At Talladega last season Menard finished 12th in both races. For the most part Menard has been a proficient driver at Dega. He’s only finished in the top ten once but he’s finished in the top fourteen in six of the last eight races (consistent). This year at Daytona Menard finished 6th. (Yahoo! B Driver)
Joey Logano – After Charlotte this 2.66 mile track is arguably Joey Logano’s second best track (14.5 avg finish). In four of his six starts he’s finished in the top ten. In last springs race Logano crossed the finish line in 10th. This year with the new plate racing rules Joey Logano finished 9th at Daytona. I think the two car tandem drafting will come into play at some point and when it does look for Logano to work with Kyle Busch if he’s available. (Yahoo! B Driver)
Regan Smith – In 2008 Regan Smith almost won at Talladega. He crossed the finish line first but NASCAR penalized him for going below the yellow line. Smith is a good restrictor plate driver and I think this is his best track type. Tandem drafting still has its place and Smith is a great pusher. When it comes to for pushing look for him to work with Kurt Busch. (Yahoo! B Driver)
David Ragan – Restrictor plate racing is David Ragan’s strength and it presents a good opportunity for for him to get a good finish. He knows his way around the big tracks and his lone win came on one of them (Daytona last summer). Don’t let his Front Row Motorsports car scare you away in the Aaron’s 499. Last year in the #34 car David Gilliland scored the 4th most points in the series on this track type (David Ragan is currently driving the #34 car). (Yahoo! C Driver)
Big name drivers who you should stay away from
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Top Tier Elite > Front Runners > Mid Pack Projections > Drivers To Avoid
