Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Loudon – LENOX Industrial Tools 301

Can Stewart-Haas Racing Continue Its Good Run at Loudon?

New Hampshire Motor Speedway is a 1.0-mile short track so that means qualifying is very important here. Kyle Busch won the pole for Sunday’s LENOX Industrial Tools 301, and the full starting lineup can be found by clicking here. Another thing that I find very important at the short tracks is practice, and not just average speeds (click here to see those). Any driver that doesn’t make a ten-lap run in practice is immediately avoided by me for the weekend. There’s no reason for that not to happen, especially this weekend: there were two practice sessions on Saturday after qualifying on Friday. By the way, the average starting position of the race winner at Loudon over the last five events has been 9.4.

My Probable Yahoo! Roster: Denny Hamlin, Clint Bowyer, Jeff Burton, Brian Vickers
My Probable Yahoo! Bench: Tony Stewart, Ryan Newman, Joey Logano, Sam Hornish, Jr.

Want FULL access to this post and see all 3,795 words? Click here to sign up for the ifantasyrace advantage. Use discount code “Twenty” for 20% off!

Final Top Fifteen Ranking For The LENOX Industrial Tools 301:

11. Ryan Newman – Starts 6th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

All you really need to know about the Rocketman this weekend is that he should have a five-race streak of top 10s at New Hampshire, and that he is pretty good here. This is actually one of his better tracks on the circuit (statistically). Newman has three career victories at Loudon (the most recent coming in this race last season) and owns a pretty impressive 13th-place average finish. He has led 720 total laps at this track, which is good enough for fourth-best in the series behind Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, and Jeff Burton. In twenty career starts at Loudon, “No Neck” has finished inside the top 10 in thirteen of them and is always mentioned as one of the favorites on the flat tracks (as you probably know). As usual, however, Newman didn’t look great in practice on Saturday, which worries me a little bit, especially considering he hasn’t had a real top 10 (I don’t count Daytona) since Martinsville back in April, which was where he lucked into his only win, thus far, this season. Ironically, they brought the exact same chassis from Martinsville to New Hampshire this weekend. He’s been disappointing fantasy owners all season long, and while I’m not saying that’s going to happen on Sunday, it’s something to keep in the back of your mind. The good qualifying effort out of Newman shouldn’t have surprised you because he has six poles at this track. The #39 was 8th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour.

12. Brian Vickers – Starts 15th – Yahoo! C Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Whenever Vickers gets into the #55 Toyota, you have to keep him in your mind. He’s made three starts this season and has an average finish of 9.0 and two top 5s, and he doesn’t look terrible at Loudon this weekend, either. He ranked 7th in the first Saturday practice sessions in terms of ten-lap average and ranked 7th on that chart in Happy Hour as well. This car has had engine problems this season but I’m not worried about that this weekend for two reasons: one, Vickers doesn’t run the hell out of the car in practice like Mark Martin does, and two, the more important reason, this race is only 301 miles and definitely isn’t very hard on the motors. Brian isn’t great at Loudon (his career average finish is 21.6) but he finished 5th here last September when driving for Red Bull Racing. I like what I saw out of the #55 on the average speed chart.

13. Kevin Harvick – Starts 12th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

“Happy” is kind of an unknown for me this weekend. His car looks decently fast, which is good. Harvick ended up pretty high on the overall average speed chart and had the 10th-best ten-lap average during Happy Hour. He was 6th on that same chart during the first practice session. Another thing that Kevin has going for him is that he ran 2nd at Phoenix earlier this year after leading 88 laps. What’s concerning to me (and probably only me) is that this is the same chassis that Harvick ran at Martinsville earlier this year. He looked really, really good that weekend and I had him as my top pick for the win, and then he went out there and laid an egg. I really hope that doesn’t happen again on Sunday. In twenty-two career starts here at Loudon, Harvick owns an average finish of 14.1 with one victory and top 10s in eleven of the events. I think he has a possibility of getting a top 10 on Sunday, but it’s all going to come down to how this team keeps up with the track. I think there are better picks that the #29 this weekend, but Harvick always has a knack at surprising me at the times when I don’t see it coming at all.

14. Joey Logano – Starts 16th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Remember what I said earlier this week in my Preview about Joey Logano at Loudon? It’s looking like it might come true. Here’s a refresher: “What’s interesting when you look at Joey’s Loudon stats is that he has been sort of “on-off” his entire career here. In the three July races that he has ran, Logano has finished 1st, 9th, and 4th. In the four September starts, he has finished 32nd, 21st, 35th, and 14th. If you are superstitious like that, go ahead and take the #20 this weekend. He shouldn’t be a bad pick by any means.” He’s nowhere near as fast as his Joe Gibbs Racing teammates this weekend, but that #20 Toyota isn’t too shabby–just look at his ranking on the overall average speed chart. Logano laid down the 11th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour and finished a solid 10th at Phoenix back in February. I’m not saying he’s a lock for a top 10 on Sunday by any means, but Sliced Bread shouldn’t be too bad of a pick at all.

15. Jeff Burton – Starts 25th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

I was considering Jeff Burton a pretty good sleeper pick this weekend and then he went out and qualified 25th on Friday and I changed my mind a bit. However, I’m not terrible worried, and I still think that he could pull off a teens finish on Sunday in the LENOX Industrial Tools 301. When you look at the last eight years (sixteen races) at Loudon, Jeff has finished 18th or better in all but one race. That includes finishes between 12th and 16th in each of the last four events at this track. There’s a reason that Burton has the seventh-best average finish (13.6) in the series at New Hampshire. In both practice sessions on Saturday the #31 was somewhat high up on the chart, and while I don’t see him as a top 10 threat on Sunday, a top 15 is not out of the question at all. Burton had the 12th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour.

Those To Avoid For The LENOX Industrial Tools 301:

Juan Montoya – This team has blown off qualifying all season, so it shouldn’t be surprising that Montoya will start from 31st on Sunday. While that may work at some tracks, it’s extremely difficult to overcome a bad qualifying time at New Hampshire. Sure, Juan finished 9th at this track in the last race after starting 31st, but are you really going to take a risk with a guy that has had only one top 10 finish in the last fourteen Sprint Cup Series races? I know I won’t.

Matt Kenseth – I’ll say this about Matt Kenseth: it would not surprise me one bit to see him get a top 10 on Sunday at Loudon. However, why take the risk–especially in allocation leagues? The Roush Fords typically aren’t very good here (especially in the July race) and Kenseth has just one finish better than 17th in the last eight events at this track. The #17 will roll off the grid in 27th on Sunday and that’s enough for me to lay off of him this weekend. Kenseth may be a “out of the box” pick this weekend, but it’s not worth it in my opinion. He has only five top 5s in twenty-four career starts here.

Greg Biffle – Same story as Kenseth: too valuable on other tracks. Plus, the #16 looks a little off to me.