Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Chicago – Geico 400 (2012 Chase Race #1)
A Fuel Mileage Race Puts the Burden on the Crew Chief
For the last ten races of the 2012 NASCAR season, you’re going to see a lot of familiar faces up front week in and week out. For whatever reason, the drivers that are in the Chase turn it up another notch. It happens, and I can’t explain why. I call it “The Chase Effect”. We’re at Chicagoland Speedway this weekend, a 1.5-mile race track that opened in 2001. This is the second year in which the Chase has started here. Also, be sure to remember that Tony Stewart won this race on a bit of a fuel gamble last season, and it’s very possible that this year’s Geico 400 could come down to that again on Sunday.
Qualifying tends to be pretty important at this track (the pole sitter has an average finish of 6.3) and Jimmie Johnson will be the one leading the field to the green on Sunday (his second career pole here). The complete results from qualifying on Saturday can be found by clicking here. Also, don’t forget to check out my practice analysis from Friday, which includes average speeds as well as ten-lap averages during the sessions (click here).
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My Probable Yahoo! Roster: Denny Hamlin, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Paul Menard, Sam Hornish, Jr.
My Probable Yahoo! Bench: Brad Keselowski, Kasey Kahne, Martin Truex, Jr., Aric Almirola
Final Top Fifteen Ranking For The Geico 400:
*Chase drivers marked in red*
1. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 1st – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Earlier this season, I mentioned that this year’s Chase could be a domination on all fronts by Jimmie Johnson and the #48 team. Well, they sure got off to a good start this weekend at Chicagoland. Five Time won the pole for Sunday’s Geico 400 and will have the best spot on pit road all day. He’s never won at this track, but to say Johnson’s does run well at this track would be a huge lie. Since NASCAR started keeping track of driver rating in 2005, the five-time champion has yet to have a rating below 100.0 at any race held at Chicagoland despite having an average finish of 13th over that span. Also, Johnson has led 365 in his ten career starts at this track, so he definitely knows how to get up front. One thing that may surprise some people this weekend is that the #48 wasn’t too impressive on the speed charts: 16th in overall average speed), 8th out of 13 in ten-lap average during first practice, and 15th out of 24 on that same chart during Happy Hour. Still, this team has been the absolute strongest on the intermediate tracks this year, and now that it’s Chase time they should bump it up another notch–if that’s even possible. Anyone in my top 5 rankings could have a shot to win on Sunday, in my opinion–they’re all just THAT strong.
2. Denny Hamlin – Starts 8th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Who would have guessed that Denny Hamlin would be fast this weekend in Chicago? Everyone. This team has been putting win-capable cars on the track for what seems like the last two months of Sprint Cup action, and this week isn’t an exception. Denny was the fastest in overall average speed over the two practice sessions on Friday and had the 4th-best ten-lap average during Happy Hour after having the 3rd-best in the first session. His record here isn’t very pretty, though; in six career starts here, Hamlin has an average finish of 19.2 and has led a grand total of zero laps. His best finish came in 2009 when Denny brought the #11 Toyota home in 5th. I fully expect him to better that on Sunday, though. When a team is running this hot, you really have to throw history out the window. And like I said earlier in this article, Chasers seem to have the ability to crank it up another notch as well. Also, don’t forget that Hamlin has Darian Grubb atop the pit box now, and judging by the way this team has been running lately, it’s possible that he has even more success in this year’s Chase with Hamlin than he did in last year’s with Stewart. Possible, but not probable.
3. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 4th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
UPDATE: Dale Earnhardt, Jr. will have to start from the rear on Sunday due to an engine change. This doesn’t affect my views on him–he did the same thing at Michigan and finished top 5. The rule of thumb with NASCAR’s golden boy, at least with me, is that when he qualifies up front, he’s really strong–kind of like Matt Kenseth. Well, not only did Earnhardt qualify up front for Sunday’s Geico 400, he also looked super strong in race trim during practice. The #88 ended up 5th on the overall average speed chart despite running about 20 more laps than all but one driver in the top 10, and also posted the 5th-best ten-lap average during Happy Hour. It’s also no secret that this team has been the most consistent on the intermediate tracks this season, and The Chase Effect should help them even more. Junior ended up 3rd in this race last season and I see him finishing inside the top 5 this time around as well, if not in victory lane.
Those To Avoid For The Geico 400:
Aric Almirola – Many people will be hyping Almirola up this weekend for a few reasons. One: he’s going to start 2nd alongside Jimmie Johnson on Sunday, his best qualifying effort since he won the pole in Charlotte four months ago. Two: the #43 Ford looked pretty good on the speed charts in Happy Hour, ending up 2nd quickest. And finally, three: he has a new crew chief for the rest of the year (Todd Parrott), who had some success with Marcos Ambrose on the intermediate tracks this year. However, I’m not buying it…yet. In the eleven races at Chicagoland in its brief existence, the outside pole sitter has an average finish of 20.8 (thanks to Dan Beaver for that statistic). Almirola may have been able to put down one fast lap in practice, but I’m not sure how much speed he has on the long run, which we will see on Sunday. He was middle-of-the-road on the average speed chart on Friday and ended up 14th out of 24 cars in Happy Hour in terms of ten-lap average. I wouldn’t blame you for taking a chance with Almirola this weekend, but I wouldn’t. Oh, and one more thing: he hasn’t finished better than 20th on an intermediate track since JUNE.
Kevin Harvick – Happy is very hit or miss at Chicagoland, and I’m just not seeing a whole bunch of speed out of the #29 Chevy this weekend. Harvick was 41st fastest in Happy Hour and 23rd on the speed chart in second practice. As far as average speed, he ranked 19th out of the 35 cars locked into the field. In other words, off by quite a bit (for a Chaser). When you add in the fact that he will roll off the grid in 35th on Sunday, I just see no reason to take Harvick this weekend–there are simply too many other, better options. He will probably end up in the top 20 but that’s about all you can expect out of Kevin on Sunday.
Greg Biffle – The entire Roush organization has been off this weekend for whatever reason. The Biff wasn’t quite as bad as Harvick in practice (26th in first practice, 19th in Happy Hour) but that’s really not the kind of speed–or lack of, I guess–you expect to see out of the #16 team on an intermediate track. I’m sure there’s going to be some talking between teams before the race on Sunday, and Biffle will probably finish top 15, but I want a top 5 run out of a stud like this, not top 15. Greg was 25th out of 35 cars on the average speed chart and will start the Geico 400 in 22nd on Sunday. His average finish here is 18.8 over nine career starts with only one top 10, and I don’t expect Biffle to grab a second on Sunday. Greg didn’t make a run of ten consecutive laps or longer in either practice session on Friday.
Carl Edwards – On the outside, it looks like a rebound week for Edwards. However, as you probably know, you need to dig deeper in fantasy racing. I’m really concerned about Roush’s lack of speed throughout the week. Yes, they were able to put down one fast lap, but they’re going to need more than that in the race on Sunday. Edwards didn’t show up on either ten-lap average chart during the Friday practice sessions. Red flag number one. Despite being pretty high up on the overall average speed chart, Carl only ran 68 laps combined during those practices. There’s another half of a red flag (it’s somewhat customary for him). Basically, it’s hard to recommend a driver that has just two top 10s in the last eight Sprint Cup races, and although Edwards does have three top 5s in seven career starts here at Chicagoland, he also has three finishes of 20th or worse. I have a feeling Carl will be a popular pick on Sunday, but I’m not buying it.
