AAA Texas 500 After Happy Hour Fantasy NASCAR Predictions

1). Jimmie Johnson – Jimmie Johnson hasn’t won at a 1.5 mile intermediate track this year but heading into the AAA Texas 500 he’s certainly looking pretty good on paper. He’s starting on the pole and that’s a big advantage in this race. Earlier this year at Texas there was very few cautions which made starting near the front very important. Qualifying first also gives him precious pit stall #1 which will help him under caution. The #48 car was very fast in practice today. In Happy Hour he had the best 15 lap average and the second best 10 lap average. His combined average speed between the two practices ranked as the 5th best. Earlier this year at Texas Johnson had a great car. He led 156 laps and finished 2nd. I think he would’ve won the race but a lapped Ryan Newman held him up on the track which allowed Greg Biffle to quickly catch him and pass him. From a career standpoint Johnson has been very good at Texas. He has 1 win, 5 second place finishes, and a 9.7 average finish. Really all that you need to know is that Jimmie Johnson is in Chase Championship mode and he’ll be tough to beat. Jimmie Johnson will drive the same chassis he finished 3rd with at Charlotte a few weeks ago. Lots of Experts Picked him to win so he should be really good. (Yahoo! A Driver)

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2). Brad Keselowski – You can never count out Keselowski. Like he says he’s not racing a stats book. That’s good because if he were to look in one he would see that he has a 25.3 average finish at Texas. Luckily you can’t always trust a stats book because they need asterisk marks sometimes. This spring he finished 36th but he was much better than that. He had a top ten car but he had engine / fuel problems (Yahoo! Race Chart). Brad Keselowski had a very good car in practice today. He said “Dang this thing is good!”. As a fantasy racer that’s exactly what I want to hear. His car was also good on the speed charts. He had the fastest single lap speed in both sessions today and in Happy Hour he had the second best 15 lap average. Charlotte is the most similar track the series visits and a few weeks ago Keselowski arguably had the best car but he ran out of gas late in the race. When it comes to fuel management skills I still rank him near the top of the list. Yesterday in practice he practiced shutting off his car in the turns to save gas. In the Chase this team has been terrible at qualifying but in this race they’ll be starting in 8th for the third consecutive time here. Not starting deep in the field will allow him to stay in sync with the competition and avoid taking unnecessary gambles. Keselowski has an interesting chassis selection this week. He’ll be driving a car he finished 6th with at New Hampshire. (Yahoo! A Driver)

AAA Texas 500 Average Speeds

3). Clint Bowyer – It’s hard not to like Clint Bowyer this weekend. He’s arguably been the safest pick a fantasy racer can make week in and week out in the Chase. In the playoffs he only has one finish outside the top ten and it was at Talladega. Clint Bowyer has a very good car in the AAA Texas 500. He had the best average speed today and the third best 15 lap average speed in Happy Hour. Being good over long runs will be vital in this race and the #15 team has that base covered. Charlotte is the most similar track on the schedule and a few weeks ago Clint Bowyer emerged victorious. At Texas he’ll be returning that same chassis. He didn’t have the best car at Charlotte but he demonstrated his fuel management skills. This race could easily become a fuel mileage race and in 2012 he’s won three races where he hasn’t been able to do burnouts because they had just enough fuel to cross the finish line. This team is underrated at that craft. (Yahoo! B Driver)

Drivers To Avoid in the AAA Texas 500

 Tony Stewart – I think Tony Stewart isn’t very happy this week. His reported body language tells that story at least. He didn’t run 10 consecutive laps in either practice today. His combined average speed ranks as the 18th best and if he were to run more laps he would be even further down that list. At Texas earlier this year Tony Stewart looked lost. He finished two laps down in 24th. Tony Stewart will be starting in 21st in the AAA Texas 500.

Ryan Newman – I would recommend you avoid Ryan Newman this week. He’s starting deep in the field (36th) and historically when he’s done that he’s struggled. The #39 also seemed slow in practice. They didn’t run many laps and in Happy Hour he never completed 10 consecutively. I’ve never viewed Newman as a good driver over long runs so this worries me.