Kurt Busch 2013 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
2012 Stats: Points Finish – 25th , 0 Wins, 1 Top Five, 5 Top Tens, Average Running Position 20.9, Average Finish 23.2, Laps Led 19, Driver Rating 71.0
The 2004 champion is one of the most talented drivers in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series. He’s capable of performing good at any type of track. In 2013 he’ll have a much better chance to run competitively once again. The #78 team is looking for wins and I think this will be a good fit for both him and the organization (Furniture Row Racing).
Strengths- Kurt Busch is good at all the different track types. He’ll have sleeper potential at nearly every venue. I think his best races will be at plate tracks, road courses, short flat tracks and high-speed intermediate tracks.
Weaknesses– Himself. Kurt Busch is his own worst enemy. He can do everything on the track except control himself. Also if he has a problem in a race the chance for recovery is slim. Another weakness is the organization he’s joining. It’s a step up from his previous employer but it’s still a one car team. With the arrival of the Generation Six car this will put them in a box in terms of fine tuning the 2013 car.
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Intermediate Track Grade- B, I think the #78 team has a lot of upside on this track type in 2013. Kurt Busch is one of the best intermediate track drivers and I like the way he finished 2012. In the last two high-speed intermediate track races of the season he finished 8th and 9th. Those finishes should be taken very seriously for fantasy consideration because in those races he was driving the #78. The rest of his finishes on this track type should be taken with a grain of salt because Finch Racing simply isn’t a competitive organization. In 2013 I think the core of his finishes on this track type will fall between 8th and 15th.
Flat Track Grade- B, Historically Kurt Busch has been a great flat track driver. If he drove for a top-tier team I wouldn’t hesitate to pick him at New Hampshire, Phoenix or Pocono. Last season for Furniture Row Racing he drove the #78 at Phoenix and finished 8th. The rest of his races from last season shouldn’t have an impact on his fantasy value on this track type in 2013.
The only flat track that I question his fantasy credentials at is Indy. At that square-shaped track he only has 1 top five and hasn’t finished better than 10th since 2004. At the other flat tracks I think he’ll compete for top tens. His best flat track is New Hampshire. He’s won there three times and has finished in the top ten in nearly half his starts. I also like him at Phoenix. He nearly won the first race on that track following the reconfiguration but ran out of gas while leading. At Pocono he has two wins and 9 top fives.
Short Track Grade- B-, 2012 wasn’t a very good year for him at short tracks. His average finish was 25th and in four of these races he finished 28th or worse. There is hope though. His best finish on this track type came at Martinsville in the fall when he was driving the #78 (finished 15th). One concern I have about him at these venues is that even in top-tier equipment he’s had struggles at Martinsville and Richmond.
Restrictor Plate Track Grade- B+, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again but Kurt Busch is the best plate racer who’s never won a points paying race (Sprint Cup Series). Last season he had a tough time at these venues. He averaged just 11.25 points per race. In the Daytona 500 he crashed on lap #2, in the Talladega spring race he spun late (running good), in the summer Daytona race he crashed and in the fall Talladega race he ran out of gas while he was leading (crashed and parked). For the season I would estimate he probably wrecked at least 6 plate cars. In 2013 we should expect some good performances from him at these venues. The difference this year is that he’ll finish some of these races.
Road Course Track Grade- B, Kurt Busch should be competitive at the serpentine tracks in 2013. In 2011 he finally got his win at a road course at Infineon. This last season he backed it up by nearly winning again at that venue in the unsponsered #51. Another reason for optimism is that Furniture Row Racing with Smith behind the wheel finished in the top ten at Watkins Glen in August.
How to use Kurt Busch from a Fantasy NASCAR Perspective in 2013?
In 2013 I think his best fantasy value will be at plate tracks, road courses and short flat tracks. If you’re in an allocation league he’ll also help you save starts at high-speed intermediate tracks.
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