Jamie McMurray 2013 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
2012 Stats: Points Finish 21st, 0 Wins, 0 Top Fives, 3 Top Tens, Average Running Position 19.4 , Average Finish 20.1, Laps Led 58, Driver Rating 73.0
2012 was another difficult year for McMurray. For the first time in his Sprint Cup career he failed to finish in the top five (in a race). He also recorded just three top tens. That was his lowest top ten total since his 2006 pre-rookie season.
McMurray’s problems in 2012 can be chalked up to the Earnhardt Ganassi Racing organization. This company clearly wasn’t competitive. After mid-June neither McMurray or Juan Pablo Montoya earned any more top tens for the season. For two fully funded teams this simply shouldn’t be the case. One troubling aspect about this team is that they didn’t get better down the stretch. From September until the end of the season he had just one top fifteen finish and it was a 15th at Kansas.
There are two reason’s for optimism for the EGR organization in 2013. Next season the Generation Six car will come into play. This could prove to be a great equalizer especially early in the season. I don’t see how this new car could hurt EGR. The worst case scenario is that they’ll perform like they have been. Another reason for optimism next year is that they’ll have Hendrick horsepower under their hoods. I don’t think horsepower was their main deficiency last season but this move certainly couldn’t hurt.
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Strengths- Jamie McMurray is a great skill track driver. He typically does his best at tracks where the driver is the difference maker. His best chances for having a good race will be at restrictor plate tracks and short tracks.
Weaknesses– McMurray has never been a consistent driver. Because of this attribute it’s hard to rely on him in fantasy NASCAR.
Intermediate Track Grade- B-, McMurray wasn’t as bad of a fantasy option as many people think at intermediate tracks in 2012. He only had one top ten but in 82% of the races on this track type he finished between 14th and 24th. McMurray also done a good job avoiding bad finishes at these venues. Only twice did he finish lower than 32nd at these tracks.
Flat Track Grade- C+, McMurray isn’t a viable flat track option. Last year at these venues he had one top ten and it was in the first race at Pocono (last top ten of the season). In August at Pocono he finished 17th. In the other flat track races last season he had results of 20th, 22nd, 23rd, 26th and 37th. With finishes like that it’s pretty clear he shouldn’t be on your team when the series visits flats.
Restrictor Plate Track Grade- B, McMurray has six career wins and half of them came on this track type. Not to many other current active drivers have won that many races on this track type. If you need a wild card driver at these venues he’s worth a look. Unfortunately he’s far from a safe pick. Since he won the Daytona 500 in 2010 he has a 24.6 average finish at that track. To find his next most recent top ten at this track you need to go back to 2007 when he won the summer race. At Talladega McMurray has a 20.0 average result and has finished in the top five in about a quarter of his races.
Short Track Grade- B-, In 2012 on short tracks McMurray had finishes of 7th, 14th, 17th, 17th, 20th and 22nd. His only top ten came in the spring Bristol race and that track under that configuration no longer exists. In terms of fantasy value I like McMurray the most at Martinsville. It’s a skill track and he’s finished in the top ten in half his races there.
Road Course Track Grade- B-, Road Courses aren’t McMurray’s strength. He’s not terrible at them but his record speaks for itself. At Infineon he only has one top ten and at Watkins Glen he has two (top tens). Since 2007 he’s only earned one top ten at these venues. At Infineon McMurray has been a consistent performer. In seven out of the last eight races at that venue he’s finished between 13th and 19th. At Watkins Glen he has an up and down record that fantasy racers can’t rely on.
How to use Jamie McMurray from a Fantasy NASCAR Perspective in 2013? I would focus on using McMurray at plate tracks and Martinsville. If you’re in an allocation league he might be worth a look at intermediate tracks.
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