Jeff Burton 2013 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
2012 Stats: Points Finish 19th, 0 Wins, 2 Top Fives, 6 Top Tens, Average Running Position 19.6 , Average Finish 19.6, Laps Led 38, Driver Rating 72.3
Strengths- Burton is unquestionably at his best at plate tracks. He also has fantasy potential at short tracks and smaller flat tracks.
Weaknesses- If it wasn’t for plate tracks the #31 team would’ve had only 2 top tens last season. That should be an adequate warning sign. Burton also has an affinity for bad luck.
Intermediate Track Grade- C+, Burton’s fantasy value has really diminished on this track type. Last season in the seventeen intermediate track races he failed to finish in the top ten and had just two top fifteen finishes. Another troubling stat is his 21.6 average finish. These tracks make up the core of the schedule and the performances he had last season were unfathomably bad for a fully funded team in an organization that had a driver make the Chase. His only hope for improvement next season is if RCR really gets the handle on the Generation Six car.
Flat Track Grade- B-, Burton didn’t perform well at flat track venues last year. His average finish was 21.6 and his best finish was 13th. In four of these seven races he finished 21st or worse. Those aren’t results that fantasy racers can stomach. From a career perspective New Hampshire ranks as Jeff Burton’s best track. He’s a four-time winner there but hasn’t finished in the top ten since 2008. In the eight races since then he’s finished between 12th and 16th six times. Currently I would rank Phoenix as his best flat track. Since it was repaved he’s had finishes of 4th, 33rd (ran well until he blew up at the end) and 13th. I would steer clear of Burton at the big flat tracks (Pocono & Indy).
Short Track Grade- B-, From a historical perspective I would consider taking Burton at any of the three short tracks. He’s won at each of those venues earlier in his career. History won’t win you a fantasy NASCAR league though, recognizing recent trends will. Last season he finished 6th in the spring race at Bristol but that was his first top ten in the last five races there. In the Chase cut-off race at Richmond he also finished 6th and that was his first top ten in the last five races there as well. At Martinsville he finished 22nd in both races and has only finished in the top fifteen twice in the last nine races.
Restrictor Plate Track Grade- A-, Burton is one of the better plate racers in NASCAR. Last season on this track type only Matt Kenseth scored more points than him. For the season he had a 6.8 average finish and scored 38 points per race. Also last season Burton was the only driver besides Kenseth who finished in the top ten in all four plate races. At Daytona he had finishes of 2nd & 5th and at Talladega he finished 10th twice. If you’re a loop data fan you have to like Burton at Talladega. Since loop data has been recorded (2005) no driver has a higher driver rating at that venue. If you’re fantasy NASCAR league is allocation based he’s a great driver to pick on this track type.
Road Course Track Grade- B-, Jeff Burton had mixed results on this track type last season. At Infineon he finished 11th and at Watkins Glen he finished 30th. His results in recent years on road courses altogether have been mixed. His 11th place finish in June at Infineon snapped a three race streak at that venue of finishes of 21st or worse. His 30th place finish at Watkins Glen in August snapped a two race streak of back to back 9th place finishes.
How to use from a Fantasy NASCAR Perspective in 2013? Burton’s best chances for a good day are at plate tracks, smaller flat tracks and short tracks. At other venues his risk level is high.
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