Kyle Busch 2013 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
2012 Stats: Points Finish 13th, 1 Win, 13 Top Fives, 20 Top Tens, Average Running Position 11.2, Average Finish 13.3, Laps Led 1,346, Driver Rating 101.5
Strengths- Kyle Busch is one of the most talented drivers in NASCAR. He’s capable of having a good day on any track type. He’s also an employee for the organization that I think will be the strongest out the gate with the Generation Six car.
Weaknesses- Kyle Busch is a victim of equipment failure much to often. No competitive driver had more engine problems than him last season. The switch to TDR engines was supposed to make that problem go away. Kyle Busch has also proven to be his own worst enemy in the past much like his brother Kurt Busch. Don’t fall for the mistake that problem has gone away. It only takes an instant for it to resurface.
Intermediate Track Grade- A-, Kyle Busch performed well on this track type last season. His driver rating ranked as the second best (106.0) and he led the second most laps (936). His 9.4 average running position ranked as the third best. You don’t accomplish these feats if you’re not good. In only one race on this track type was he “truly” uncompetitive and that was the first race of the season at one of these venues (Las Vegas). In six of the last seven races on this track type he finished 8th or better. If he could just improve another notch then he could potentially win +4 races on this track type a year. What I don’t like about Kyle Busch on this track type is that a couple of times a year he’ll manage to find trouble.
Flat Track Grade- A-, If it wasn’t for bad luck than Kyle Busch likely would’ve ranked as a top five driver on this track type last season. In the races he didn’t have problems he had finishes of 2nd (Indy), 3rd (Phoenix) and 6th (Phoenix). In the races that he had bad luck he performed well until his fortunes turned.
Bad Luck Races With Explanations:
New Hampshire (July) – Won the pole, led 72 laps but had problems on pit road that doomed him to a 16th place finish (Yahoo! Race Chart)
New Hampshire (September) – Started 2nd, led 48 laps but had engine problems (Yahoo! Race Chart)
Pocono (June) – Ran well but had engine problems (Yahoo! Race Chart)
Pocono (August) – Ran well until an early parts failure sent him into the wall (Yahoo! Race Chart)
Short Track Grade- A+, Kyle Busch is one of the best short track drivers in NASCAR. He’s capable of winning at all three tracks and he’s a good default pick at Bristol and Richmond. At Martinsville he’s a good out of sequence pick.
At Richmond Kyle Busch is pretty close to being “Super Man”. His average finish is 5.4 and he’s won the last four spring races. In his career he’s only finished 15th or worse three times and the last two of them came in races where he was under pressure (don’t pick him when he’s under pressure).
Busch has been phenomenal at Bristol. He’s won nearly a third of his starts and in August on the newly reconfigured surface he finished 6th.
At Martinsville Kyle Busch belongs in the conversation of the best driver who’s never won there. Last fall he finished 2nd in and in three of the last five races there he’s finished 4th or better. In the two races that he failed to finish in that range he had top ten cars (didn’t finish in the top ten though).
Restrictor Plate Track Grade- B+, Kyle Busch is almost always a factor in the plate races. He has a knack for the draft and last season he scored the fourth most points. If it wasn’t for mayhem at the end of the Daytona July race then he could’ve potentially ranked as the second best driver behind new teammate Matt Kenseth. In 2011 Busch scored the 21st most points.
Last season Kyle Busch was particularly good at Talladega. At that 2.66 mile track he had finishes of 2nd and 3rd. From a historical perspective I view him as a high risk driver there. In sixteen total races at Dega he’s finished 25th or worse nine times. His average finish there is 22.1. When it comes to plate tracks I trust him more at Daytona. He has one win there and has come close multiple times only to get wiped out at the end. Altogether I would say Busch has moderate risk at these tracks.
Road Course Track Grade- A, Marcos Ambrose is the best road course driver in NASCAR and Kyle Busch belongs in the next tier. If it wasn’t for oil on the track at Watkins Glen in August then Kyle Busch would’ve won his second race there. He led nearly half the race (43 of 90) but the combination of a slick track and Brad Keselowski’s bumper were his undoing. In 2011 he also came close (led 49 of 90) but his car wasn’t good enough at the end. In the last seven races at Watkins Glen Busch has seven straight top tens and has started in the top ten in seven straight races. He’s a former winner at Infineon but since his 2008 win he hasn’t finished better than 11th. I wouldn’t be to nervous about him there though. He has the talent and has finished 11th or better half the time.
How to use Kyle Busch from a Fantasy NASCAR Perspective in 2013? You can use Kyle Busch at almost any track. My best advice would be to tell you the tracks to stay away from him. My avoid list for him would be Talladega, Kansas and Infineon.
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