Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2013 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
2012 Stats: Points Finish 12th, 1 Win, 10 Top Fives, 20 Top Tens, Average Running Position 11.6, Average Finish 10.9, Laps Led 358, Driver Rating 95.9
Strengths- Dale Earnhardt Jr. is at his best on intermediate tracks, short tracks and flat tracks. His plate racing success is somewhat “sporadic”. Another strength of Junior’s is Hendrick Motorsports. Their the top organization in NASCAR and when change is in the air it’s smart to have a driver from the best organization on your team.
Weaknesses- Dale Earnhardt Jr. has really struggled at road courses. Also he’s struggled to consistently perform on a year to year basis. Last season he had 20 top tens but in the three prior seasons combined he only accumulated 25 top tens.
Intermediate Track Grade- A-, Dale Earnhardt Jr. was very good at intermediate tracks last year. He participated in fifteen of them (missed two with his concussion) and finished in the top ten thirteen times. Despite the races he missed he still tied Jimmie Johnson for the most top tens on this track type. In the two races he didn’t finish in that mark he had results of 11th (Dover) and 17th (Darlington). What really stood out about him statistically last season was his 7.3 average finish (intermediate tracks). That ranked as the best in the series. His highlight on this track type last season was his win at Michigan. What makes me nervous about Junior at intermediate tracks is his history. In the three prior season’s (2011, 2010 & 2009) he averaged just 3.3 top tens a season. Those numbers don’t exactly instill confidence. If it wasn’t for his history I would give him an A.
Flat Track Grade- B+, Junior had some strong performances at flat tracks last season. He had three top tens and a 10.6 average finish excluding the second race at Pocono where he led 17 laps but had motor issues. His best performance of the year in my opinion on this track type was the first race at Pocono. He finished 8th but I think he potentially had the best car (not good fuel mileage strategy). In 2013 I expect Junior to be strong once again on this track type, especially at the shorter flat tracks.
Short Track Grade- A-, Dale Earnhardt Jr. is one of the best short track racers in NASCAR. Last season he scored the 5th most points and had a 11.2 average finish. His 7.8 average running position ranked second to Clint Bowyer. Junior’s not a bad option at any of these three tracks. Currently I would rank Martinsville as his best on this track type. He finished 21st in October following his first race back from his concussion but in the four previous races he had a 4.75 average finish. Hendrick Motorsports is the class of the field there and they will remain that in 2013. Junior was also strong in both races at Richmond last year. In the spring race he finished 2nd and in the fall race he had a strong car but finished 14th because that race didn’t play out traditionally (rain, fuel mileage).
Restrictor Plate Track Grade- B+, It’s been nearly a decade since Junior won at a plate track. His last win at Daytona was in 2004 and his last win at Talladega was in 2005. Last season he scored the 5th most points and had an 11.5 average finish. He was also only one of three drivers who finished in the top twenty every race. The others were Jeff Burton and Matt Kenseth. His highlight on this track type last season was his second place finish in the 2012 Daytona 500. Junior is a Top Tier Elite driver at these tracks but he hasn’t been consistent. In the last six races at Daytona he has three finishes between 2nd and 4th and three finishes between 15th and 24th. In the last five races at Talladega he has two top tens and three finishes of 20th or worse.
Road Course Track Grade- C+, Dale Earnhardt Jr. should never be confused for being a road course ringer. At Infineon he’s never finished in the top ten and at Watkins Glen he hasn’t finished better than 15th since 2005. His respective average finishes at these tracks are 22.2 (Infineon) and 22.7 (Watkins Glen). If somehow your forced to use him at a road course I would give him a slight edge at Infineon. In three of the last six races there he’s finished between 11th and 13th.
How to use Dale Earnhardt Jr. from a Fantasy NASCAR Perspective in 2013? In 2013 I would focus on using Dale Earnhardt Jr. at high-speed intermediate tracks, short tracks and smaller flat tracks. He’s also good at plate tracks but from an allocation standpoint it’s better sticking with him at more predictable venues.
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