Greg Biffle 2013 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
Greg Biffle 2012 Stats: Points Finish – 5th, 2 Wins, 12 Top Fives, 21 Top Tens, Average Running Position 10.3, Average Finish 10.2, Laps Led 721, Driver Rating 99.5
Strengths – Biffle like his Roush Fenway teammates Carl Edwards and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. will be at his best on intermediate tracks in 2013.
Weaknesses – Don’t get your hopes up if you pick Biffle at a short track. With the exception of Bristol I would avoid him on that track type.
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Intermediate Track Grade- A-, Biffle’s best chance for visiting victory lane will be at intermediate tracks. Fifteen of his eighteen career wins have come on these venues. Last season on this track type he won at Texas and Michigan. At the start of 2012 Biffle was probably the best intermediate track driver. Around the mid-point of the season though his good performances started to diminish. Last season at intermediate tracks Biffle scored the third most points and had a 9.3 average finish. Look for Biffle to be strong at these tracks again in 2013.
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Flat Track Grade- B+, Biffle deserves fantasy pick consideration at flat tracks. I like him at three of the four venues. The only track where I have reservations about him is New Hampshire. In the last eight races there he has three top tens accompanied by five finishes between 16th and 18th.
Indy ranks as his best flat track. Last year at that venue he finished 3rd and currently he has five consecutive top 8 finishes there. His Indy career average finish is 12.1.
Last year Biffle was good in both Pocono races but his finishes don’t reflect that. In the June race he finished 24th but it’s important to note he lost a cylinder in that race. Before that problem ensued he was running well (Yahoo! Race Chart) and led 19 laps. In the August Pocono race Biffle was also running well but got swept up in the late Jimmie Johnson – Matt Kenseth collision at the front of the field (Yahoo! Race Chart).
In the three races on the reconfigured Phoenix layout Biffle has been strong. His average finish since than is 7.6 and last year he finished in the top ten in both races.
Short Track Grade- B, Short tracks are a weakness of Biffle’s. With the exception of Bristol I would avoid him on this track type. Martinsville has been a tough track for him. He finished 10th in October but that was only his third top ten in twenty races. His overall average finish there is 21.4.
In the mid 2000’s Biffle had five consecutive top tens at Richmond and last September he had his first top ten since 2006. That’s an eleven race stretch between top tens. When you make fantasy picks you need to aim higher than that.
Biffle’s best fantasy value on short tracks is Bristol. His average finish there is 12.2 and he’s finished in the top ten in over half his starts. Last August on the new surface he started in 3rd, led 41 laps after having an up and down race.
Restrictor Plate Track Grade- B+, Biffle was a plate racing ace last year. He was strong in every race and had a series best 5.8 average running position. In terms of points accumulated he ranked 3rd behind Matt Kenseth and Jeff Burton. The car is changing this year and some plate racing rules are also changing. The rules changes are mostly geared towards eliminating the two car draft. Last season’s rules did a pretty good job taking that away for most of the competitors but the Ford’s could tandem draft just long enough to push themselves to the front and stay there. The new rules could possibly take away that element for them. The biggest setback for Biffle at plate tracks next year will be that Matt Kenseth isn’t his teammate anymore. These two worked really well together on this track type.
Road Course Track Grade- B, Biffle had a good season at the two road courses last season. He had finishes of 6th (Watkins) and 7th (Infineon). Biffle is a capable driver at both tracks but his risk level is somewhat high. In the last six races at Watkins he has three top tens but he also has three finishes of 21st or worse. Overall at Watkins Glen his average finish is 23.8. Biffle has been a better fantasy option at Infineon. In the last nine races there he has four top tens and seven finishes inside the top fifteen.
How to use Greg Biffle from a Fantasy NASCAR Perspective in 2013? About half the schedule is based on intermediate tracks and as a result I would use him at those tracks exclusively if you’re in an allocation league. If you’re not limited by a certain number of starts I would recommend you give him a look at big flat tracks and restrictor plate tracks.
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