Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: 2013 Daytona 500

Can Harvick Make It 3-for-3?

The week leading up to the Daytona 500 is like no other one on the Sprint Cup Series schedule. We get a whole bunch of practice data, but really the only thing worth paying attention to is how racing was in the Sprint Unlimited and the two Budweiser Duel races. This year, with the Generation-6 car, the racing is very different: track position at the restrictor plate tracks will be key, as passing isn’t as simple as in the past. This doesn’t mean make your picks based on starting position (the full Daytona 500 starting lineup can be found by clicking here, by the way), though. I just wouldn’t recommend picking drivers who plan to “hang out in the back”.

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 Final Top Fifteen Ranking For The Daytona 500

11. Denny Hamlin – Hamlin, like Harvick, is 2-for-2 at Daytona thus far, but with the former it refers to wrecks. If Denny can avoid them on Sunday though (and prevent the air from spinning his car out again), he could be a threat. He did post a career-best 4th in last year’s Daytona 500. He’s still a risky pick, though, because plate tracks aren’t exactly Hamlin’s strength. Still, he’s aggressive enough to make his way to the front, and having Matt Kenseth as a partner now should be a good thing.

12. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Junior gets this ranking by default. He has the best career average finish here for a reason, and I don’t blame you for picking him. However, I will try to make a case for you not to pick him. There’s more details regarding that near the bottom of this article.

13. Brad Keselowski – Before Keselowski really hit the scene as an “elite” driver (yeah, I said it), everyone knew him as that one guy who won the race at Talladega in 2009 for Phoenix Racing. Yes, he’s a very good pick when we race at the other plate track (he has six top 10s and two wins in eight starts at ‘Dega), but what about Daytona?  The same can’t be said. BK ended up 8th the last time we raced here (back in July 2012), and that has been his only top 10 at this track in seven career starts. Still, Keselowski won’t be a terrible on Sunday, and with Joey Logano–who is a very good plate racer–joining Penske, that should help Brad a little bit, right? One thing I’d like to mention is that BK and Paul Wolfe are the best in the series at strategy, and with the way things around going during Speedways thus far, this year’s Daytona 500 champion could be decided by that variable.

14. Jeff Gordon – Considering he will start this year’s Great American Race from 2nd place, Jeff Gordon hasn’t gotten much media attention, but that’s not very surprising considering his name isn’t Danica and he wrecked out early in the Sprint Unlimited on Saturday. This is Gordon’s third-worst track on the circuit, but his average finish at Daytona is 16.1, which is respectable. He hasn’t posted a top 10 in the Daytona 500 since the 2007 season, but he still knows how to drive these tracks, as evidenced by his six wins here. Once interesting thing to note is that since Homestead-Miami Speedway opened in 1999, the winners of the season-ending race there have went on to record an average finish of 19th in the next season’s Great American Race.

15. Carl Edwards – If the #99 team was planning on getting rid of the bad luck bug from 2012, it hasn’t happened yet; Speedweeks has been pretty rough for Cousin Carl–and his race cars–but all of the wrecks weren’t exactly Edwards’ fault (especially the one in his Budweiser Duel race). He swept the top 10 in both Daytona races last season, and that makes it six finishes inside that mark in the last seven points-paying races here for the 2011 championship runner-up. The only knock I have on not picking Edwards this week is that the Fords doesn’t seem as powerful as the Toyotas and Chevrolets, but it’s not a major difference, so I wouldn’t be too worried about it.

Sleeper/”Outside the Box” Picks

Marcos Ambrose – The Tasmanian posted a career-best Daytona 500 finish here last season, and for some reason he has stuck out to me during Speedweeks. When he stays out of trouble, Marcos tends to have a good finish here. In his rookie year, he finished 16th in the Great American race and then followed that up with a 6th-place finish in the July event. You won’t see his name on many rosters this weekend, so why not take a shot with Ambrose (or even Almirola for that matter)?

Martin Truex, Jr. – When you look at Truex’s record at Daytona, it seems less than stellar, but he does something here that I like this week: get to the front. Martin has led the fifth-most amount of laps (42) over the last four points-paying races at this track (along with the fifth-best average driver rating), and the #56 Toyota has shown some speed (to me anyway) during Speedweeks this year. Also, in the last four Daytona 500s, Truex has finished 12th or better three times (yeah, that surprised me, too). This team will be looking to prove that 2012 wasn’t a fluke season, and a good finish on Sunday would get them off to a good start.

Austin Dillon – The RCR cars and drivers, for whatever reason, are the best picks on the restrictor plate tracks year in and year out. Austin will be making limited Sprint Cup Series starts this season, but he raced his was into the Great American Race on Thursday and will start Sunday’s race in 8th position. I only have a few concerning things about picking the #33 this week: 1.) How good is this pit crew? I think this year they will be more important than they have been in a while at Daytona. and 2.) How aggressive will Dillon be? I’d think he would be content just finishing the race, like the Duel on Thursday, but if he’s riding toward the front, that won’t be a bad thing for fantasy owners.

Those To Avoid

Danica Patrick – For those of you who jumped on the Go Daddy bandwagon earlier this week, I hope you jump/fall off doesn’t hurt too bad. To put it simply, it takes minimal talent to put down a fast qualifying lap at Daytona (give more credit to the car/crew). In her Budweiser Duel race, Danica showed no interest in getting drafting experience, and that’s what’s going to hurt her the most come Sunday. She might lead the first few laps (I’m sure DW is salivating at the possibility of that right now) but NASCAR’s favorite woman will eventually find her way to the back of the pack to “ride it out”, and us TV viewers will be forced to watch the back of the pack as opposed to the leaders. If she makes it to the checkered flag, I could see Patrick starting the 2013 season off with a top 20, so in some deeper fantasy leagues she may be worth a shot.

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – NASCAR’s most popular driver is going to be the most picked this weekend (the last time I checked on Yahoo!, he was on 80% of the rosters) and that is exactly why you should not pick him. As I said before, the restrictor plate races are the ones where fantasy racers can take on the most risk. By not putting Earnhardt on your roster this Sunday, just imagine how many points you can gain on those who do have him if he happens to crash out. Also, don’t forget about Junior’s alternating streak at Daytona I kept mentioning last season–he does a lot better at Daytona during even-numbered years than he does during odd-numbered ones (click here to see the chart). Since 2006, Junior averages a finish of 7.63 during even years and a 29.5 average finish during odd years.

Jimmie Johnson – “Five Time” won the Great American race back in 2006, but since then his record in the Daytona 500 has been abysmal–to the tune of not finishing better than 27th in his last six attempts. Johnson is a threat to win nearly every week, but you won’t find him on many rosters this week. In fact, most experts recommend avoiding the five-time champion (see here).