Phoenix Subway Fresh Fit 500: Fantasy NASCAR “Top Tier Elite” Picks

Denny Hamlin – My long running Denny Hamlin fantasy mantra is “if it’s short or flat pick Hamlin”. Phoenix fits both of those characteristics to a tee and as a result Hamlin should be on your short list of favorites to win the Subway Fresh Fit 500. Since the track was reconfigured in 2011 he’s arguably been the best driver. In the three races on the new surface he has the best average finish (5th) and is tied for having the best average running position (8.3). Last March at Phoenix Denny Hamlin had a winning performance. He led 61 laps, had a 4th place average running position and recorded the second best driver rating. In the fall he once again had a very strong car. In that race he started in 3rd, had an average running position of 3rd and finished 2nd. Richmond is the most similar track on the schedule and in the Chase cut-off race his car was in a zip code of his own. Two weeks later when the series visited New Hampshire (also similar) he started in 32nd and still managed to lead 193 laps of the 300 lap event. My Prediction is that Denny Hamlin will win the Phoenix Subway Fresh Fit 500. (Yahoo! A Driver)

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Jimmie Johnson – The last time the series raced at Phoenix it didn’t work out well for Johnson. He started deep in the field (24th) and in the last third of the race while running in 7th he had a sudden flat tire and got into the wall (Yahoo! Race Chart, finished 32nd). The narrative on TV in November was that Johnson was struggling, but I think he was just driving smart and points racing. You have to remember he was the points leader entering the event. In the March race at Phoenix last season Jimmie Johnson had perhaps the strongest car in the field. He could roll through the turns better than anyone and when he was leading he could pull away. If he didn’t have lug nut stud issues I think a victory for him would’ve been a near certainty because that problem caused him to make multiple pit stops to correct the issue. When the checkered flag waved he crossed the finish line in 4th. (Yahoo! A Driver)

Kyle Busch – In November Kyle Busch clobbered the field and was dominant for much of the race. He started on the pole, led 237 laps, earned an impressive 143.8 driver rating, and finished 3rd. His downfall started when Danica Patrick cut down Sam Hornish Jr.’s tire which brought out a caution. During that restart Kevin Harvick passed him and waved good-bye. It should also be noted that his car wasn’t the strongest over long runs. Both Brad Keselowski and Denny Hamlin passed him in long runs over the course of the race. Last March Kyle Busch was good once again. He finished 6th and led 52 laps. Rowdy will be very tough to beat in this race. Look for Kyle Busch to be the pre-race pick by many fantasy NASCAR experts and Vegas. (Yahoo! B Driver)

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Clint Bowyer – Clint Bowyer had a good race last November until he messed with the wrong guy. Jeff Gordon wasn’t going to take run in’s with him lightly anymore and took him out. When the initial incident between these two occurred Bowyer was battling Gordon for 5th. Because of the accident he finished back in 28th. In the second half of the race Bowyer had one of the best cars. If there was an average running position based on how well he ran in that half the race I would say it was about 5th. One fantasy attribute you have to like about Bowyer this week is his strength on shorter flat tracks. In my Clint Bowyer 2013 Fantasy NASCAR Preview I said “When it comes to the shorter flat tracks Clint Bowyer is just about as good as it gets. After flat track ace Denny Hamlin he should be on your short list of who to pick next.” When you ignore Bowyer’s Phoenix finishes last year (wreck in November, flat tire issues in March) his average finish in the other shorter flat track races would be an impressive 3.75. (Yahoo! A Driver)

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