Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Phoenix – Subway Fresh Fit 500

This week the Sprint Cup Series is in the desert at Phoenix International Raceway, which was repaved and reconfigured between the two 2011 events. In other words, we’ve only seen three races on this new track, and if you like to look at past history, those are the ones I would place the most emphasis on. The reconfiguration really tightened the field (in my opinion), and those who were great here before don’t really have a major advantage any longer.

The great and mighty (please sense the sarcasm) NASCAR.com decided to deprive us of average practice speeds this year, so we really only have 10-lap averages to look at other than one fast lap. The good thing is Ryan does a great job at making notes for each practice and those can be found here: 1st practice — 2nd practice — Happy Hour. The full starting lineup for the Subway Fresh Fit 500 can be found by clicking here. Please remember that Denny Hamlin and Kurt Busch will start from the rear of the field.

Final Top 15 Ranking For The Subway Fresh Fit 500:

11. Carl Edwards – Starts 15th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Cousin Carl turned some heads in Happy Hour when he posted the 4th-best lap, but I didn’t exactly see any long run speed out of this team (the #99 was 16th-best on the ten-lap average chart). As usual, Edwards ran a lot less number of practice laps than most people this weekend, which can skew his numbers a little bit. He was able to grab a runner-up finish here in the first race on the “new Phoenix,” but Edwards hasn’t been able to crack the top 10 in either of the races here since–although, to be fair, 2011 didn’t really accurately represent Carl and this #99 team. Judging by fast laps, we could see Edwards in the top 10 by the end of the race on Sunday, but I think a top 15 is much more likely.

12. Denny Hamlin – Starts 43rd – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Hamlin was a favorite among most (if not all) of the fantasy experts coming into the weekend, but his blown engine on Saturday probably put some doubt in the minds of some, including mine. I’m not really worried about Denny starting in the back because he’s shown that he can fly though the field on short tracks before (and there’s no doubt we will hear all about it in the pre-race commentary on Sunday). What concerns me more is that the backup engine wasn’t quite as strong as the primary, for whatever reason. Hamlin posted the 15th-fastest lap in Happy Hour and never made a run of ten consecutive laps, so it’s hard to get a grip on how this car will be on a long run. Still, it’s Denny Hamlin and it’s Phoenix, and you just can’t look past that. He won this race last season and followed that up with a 2nd-place run in the fall. You also can’t look past at the issues that the Gibbs organization has had to start this season. If you have a better replacement for Hamlin this weekend, I think I’d let the #11 rest.

13. Matt Kenseth – Starts 9th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

I had Kenseth as a “Should Be Strong” pick coming into the weekend, and that was looking pretty good on Friday after he posted the fastest lap in practice and then qualified 9th. After that, this team seemed to regress. Matt ended up 10th-fastest in second practice and fell back to 20th-fastest in Happy Hour. In that final session, however, the #20 ended up 6th-best on the ten-lap average chart, which is good. Earlier this week I said I thought the move to JGR would really help Kenseth here at Phoenix, but with the engine issues going on, it has to put some concern in the mind’s of fantasy racers. As I said, you can’t predict mechanical failures, but there’s a little more risk picking the #20 this weekend, in my opinion. It might be worth staying away from the JGR Toyotas until they become more reliable…

14. Jeff Burton – Starts 20th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

There are a bunch of drivers that you could put in the 14 and 15 rankings this weekend, but I’m going to go with some drivers that look good to me and have been alright on the “new Phoenix”. Jeff Burton, surprisingly, hasn’t been bad here in the last three races: he finished 4th here in 2011, and in last year’s fall race he ended up 13th. In the spring race, Burton had an engine problem, finishing 33rd, but he led 11 laps that day. If you look at his race chart (click here) Jeff was a solid top 15 car for most of the race that day. He ended up 12th on the ten-lap average chart in Happy Hour and 8th on the same one in the second practice session. The #31 Chevrolet will roll off the grid in 20th on Sunday afternoon and if Burton can keep the car clean all day, he should challenge for a top 15 by the time the checkers wave.

15. Paul Menard – Starts 16th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Menard wasn’t great by any means in this event last season (he finished 31st after starting 20th), but you can’t look past the fact that he has 9th-place finishes in the other two races on the “new Phoenix”. This Sunday, Menard will roll off the grid in 16th, and I have a feeling he will be running inside the top 15 for most of the day as long as nothing bad happens. The #27 Chevrolet had the 9th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour despite being only 25th-fastest, and in the second practice session Paul was 21st. There’s a bit of risk in taking the #27 this weekend, but I think Paul could surprise some people. Or he could disappoint. Guess we’ll find out soon enough.

Sleepers To Consider For The Subway Fresh Fit 500:

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. – Stenhouse is a Roushkateer, which makes most people consider him a great intermediate track driver, but he’s actually been pretty throughout his career on the short and flat tracks. Ricky posted a solid 12th-place qualifying effort on Friday and but wasn’t overly impressive in either practice session on Friday, which was a little concerning. I think this team is capable of a top 20 in the Subway Fresh Fit 500 but I wouldn’t consider them a threat for a top 15 going into the event. Things change a lot during the race, however, so I think Stenhouse is worth a shot if you’re looking for a sleeper.

Kurt Busch – The elder Busch brother hit the wall in qualifying (he still posted the 25th-fastest lap) and the team decided to go to a backup car for Sunday, meaning the #78 will have to pass 40+ cars to get to the front of the field. If this wouldn’t have happened, Kurt probably would have been ranked, but that’s not the case so I’ll have to consider him a sleeper. Phoenix has been a pretty good track for the 2004 champ, and he brought this #78 Chevrolet home with an 8th-place finish here in the fall. The backup car showed some speed in Happy Hour–including the 3rd-best ten-lap average–and if this team can use some strategy to get through the field, Busch might surprise some people on Sunday.

Those To Avoid For The Subway Fresh Fit 500:

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Of all the Hendrick drivers, Junior has been the one that’s been the slowest to adapt to this new Phoenix track. He finished 14th in this race last season but was outside the top 20 in the other two events–and it doesn’t look like NASCAR’s favorite driver is going to get his first top 10 on the new track this weekend. He has struggled (not mightily, but still struggling) in all of the practice sessions this weekend, and didn’t post a run of ten consecutive laps in any of the three, a huge red flag. A top 10 is possible out of Earnhardt on Sunday but that’s not what you want out of a racer like him on a team like this.

Danica Patrick – Speaking of popular, it could be a long weekend for the majority of NASCAR nation. Danica posted a solid 17th-place finish here last fall, but in my personal opinion that finish had more to do with luck than it did speed/skill. The Go Daddy Chevrolet will roll off the grid in 40th on Sunday afternoon, and if Danica can stay on the lead lap she might be able to capture a top 25. But do you really want to take that kind of risk at this point in the season? I know I don’t. Don’t get caught up in the top 10 at Daytona hype.

Joey Logano – I had a small glimmer of hope Joey Logano coming into the weekend, but after seeing how much this #22 team has struggled, that hope is now gone. Sliced Bread has finished 11th or better in two of the three races on the “new Phoenix” but it’s going to take a lot for that to be three of four after Sunday. Joey qualified 32nd on Friday and wasn’t able to post a speed better than 18th-fastest in any of the three practices of the weekend. The #22 Ford was 14th in ten-lap average in Happy Hour but that’s not enough for me to recommend Logano this week.