Auto Club 400 Fantasy NASCAR Top Ten Confidence Ranking Picks

1. Matt Kenseth – What happened in Vegas won’t stay in Vegas. At Sin City Kenseth emerged victorious and became the first driver to win in the Gen 6 car at an intermediate track. In my opinion that’s a pretty big deal especially heading into this weekend. On Sunday he’ll be starting near the front which has been a rarity for him (qualified 5th but starting in 3rd). Historically when he’s started up front he’s run well. Auto Club Speedway has been a good track for Kenseth. He’s won here three times and has a 10.3 average finish.

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2. Kyle Busch – Kyle Busch was dominate in this race last year until Tony Stewart eventually caught him. In the  race he led 80 laps, had a second place average running position and finished 2nd. On Sunday Kyle Busch will start on the front row alongside Denny Hamlin just like last year. If he can have a repeat performance I would be happy. Every week though just like normal Kyle Busch carries inherent risk. He hasn’t had a race this year that’s been trouble free. I did like that he practiced coming down pit road today though. I believe he has three speeding penalties already this year. I would hate to see #4 tomorrow.

3. Denny Hamlin – Starting on the pole is a plus for Hamlin but don’t make it out to be everything. He started on the pole last year but only led the first lap until Kyle Busch passed him (also led 1 lap later in the race). Last year in this race Hamlin was very good, his third best PROS Rankings reflects that. In practice today very little information is known about Hamlin because he didn’t run 10 consecutive laps. I wouldn’t be to concerned about that though because Hamlin tends to run better on tracks where  tires drop off quickly. Right before Michigan (sister track) was repaved Hamlin owned the place. In the last six races on that old surface he had four finishes in the top three.

4. Jimmie Johnson – You would be foolish to bet against Jimmie Johnson at Auto Club Speedway. On Sunday he’ll be starting in 18th but he’ll find his way to the front. Outside of Martinsville and Dover this is arguably his next best track. He’s won here five times and currently has 10 consecutive top tens (at Auto Club). On Sunday I think he’ll be a lock for #11. In Happy Hour Jimmie Johnson had the 7th best 10 lap average. That’s nothing to get excited about but I trust the #48 team. At Las Vegas (very important) this team shown speed with the Gen 6 car.