Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Fontana – Auto Club 400
Worry In The Ford Camp?
The two most surprising happenings of the weekend were on Friday when Greg Biffle blew a motor early in first practice and then when Brad Keselowski decided to change engines before qualifying. Auto Club Speedway is 2 -mile race track that requires a strong motor to run well, so the question running through most people’s minds is probably, “Can I trust The Biff and Kez in fantasy this week, or the whole Ford camp for that matter?” To put it simply, I wouldn’t be too worried about it. The Fords don’t have a recent history of any major problems like the Toyotas do, and Biffle has been as fast as anybody this weekend even with the backup motor. Just remember, the #16 and the #2 will have to start Sunday’s Auto Club 400 from the rear of the field, although this isn’t Bristol so I’m not too worried about it. The full starting lineup can be found by clicking here. Just as a note, Auto Club Speedway and Michigan International Speedway are the only two 2-mile tracks on the circuit.
There were three practice sessions this weekend at Fontana and you know Ryan has you covered when it comes to in-depth practice notes. To view those, click here: Practice #1 — Practice #2 — Happy Hour. If you’re looking for the practice speeds charts, those can be found here: Practice #1 — Practice #2 — Happy Hour.
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Final Top 15 Ranking For The Auto Club 400:
11. Kevin Harvick – Starts 12th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Kevin Harvick is one of just two drivers to post top 5 finishes at each Fontana race over the last two years. So why don’t I have him ranked higher than 11th? Because this team has yet to show this season that they can keep up with the track and get the finish they deserve. Week in and week out Kevin Harvick is running solid and where most fantasy experts think he should be, and then bam! we get to the final round of pit stops and the #29 Chevrolet starts fading–quite opposite of his “Closer” nickname. This weekend, “Happy” didn’t blow anyone away in practice, but he had some decent ten-lap averages (6th-best in Happy Hour, 10th-best in second practice) and the team seemed to be working on race runs in every single practice, which is a good thing. Harvick is currently on a five-race streak of top 10s at Auto Club Speedway and could easily make it six in a row on Sunday, it all depends on how the track changes and how this team responds. I’d consider the #29 a lock for a top 15 finish this week.
12. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 13th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Harvick gets the nod just slightly over Dale Earnhardt, Jr. this weekend based solely on the fact that the #29 was just a tick better than the #88 in ten-lap averages. Junior is off to the best start in his career this season and will be looking to make it five top 10s in a row on Sunday. Will that happen? It’s certainly possible. It sure seems like this team (and driver) have a better grip on this new car than the rest of the field, and it really shows on Sundays. There have been a couple of times this weekend that Earnhardt hasn’t looked that great in the practice sessions only to end up fighting for a top 5 when the race weekend is all said and done. Looking back at last season, the #88 finished a solid 3rd here at Fontana in this event and then won in Michigan–the other 2-mile race track–in June and followed that up with a solid 4th-place finish in August. I’m really not that worried about Junior’s somewhat lack of speed on the charts this weekend. As they say in fantasy racing, you have to run ’em while they’re hot, and only one driver in the garage is off to a better start this season than Dale Earnhardt, Jr. A top 10 is definitely within this team’s grasp if they can make some good adjustments during the 400 miles on Sunday.
13. Joey Logano – Starts 4th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
Joey Logano just has trouble getting the finishes you hope for. It’s been like that for most of his Sprint Cup career, and this season is no different. Whether it be his fault or not, JoLo tends to under-perform. As I said before, though, I do think that Penske’s switch to Ford will benefit them on the intermediate tracks this season, and that should, in turn, help Logano, even though it is his first season with the organization. With Gibbs, Joey had a few good runs at this 2-mile track, posting a 5th-place finish here in 2010 and following that up with an 11th-place finish in the fall race. However, over the last two seasons, he has regressed. Even though Joey qualified well here in 2011 and 2012 (3rd and 8th, respectively), he didn’t race well and ended up 25th and 24th. This weekend, he put down a nice qualifying lap on Friday, and because of the engine changes with Biffle and Keselowski, he will start 4th–but how will he race? Logano wasn’t super fast in either practice session on Saturday and he never made any long runs, which is concerning to me. He has track position to start the race on Sunday, though, and that could help him get a top 15 finish. I just don’t see the #22 challenging for a top 10 at the end of the day, and frankly I think he’s too risky to use this week. On a positive note, I don’t think he’ll be able to catch up to Denny Hamlin, so we don’t have to worry about them taking each other out.
14. Kurt Busch – Starts 8th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
Kurt Busch could be viewed as a sleeper pick this weekend depending on your definition of the term. This team is coming off their first finish better than 20th during this 2013 season (and first top 5), so they should have some confidence and momentum on their side. On top of that, the #78 Chevrolet doesn’t look too shabby. Busch will start 8th on Sunday and was solidly inside the top 15 during all practice sessions this weekend. In terms of ten-lap average, he didn’t show up on any chart, but that’s not a huge deal because a lot of teams didn’t make any long runs. Surprisingly enough, however, Fontana is Kurt Busch’s best track on the circuit. He owns a career average finish of 12.7 here and has finished inside the top 10 in nearly half of his nineteen starts here–including a 9th-place effort in this event last season while driving the #51 car. Regan Smith always showed some potential in the #78 on the intermediate tracks before wrecking, so Kurt could have a strong showing on Sunday as long as the pit crew doesn’t screw up. Busch is a “High Risk” pick because he’s a hot head and could go off at any minute.
15. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. – Starts 29th – Yahoo! C Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Stenhouse hasn’t really picked up the qualifying thing in Sprint Cup yet, but he’s a top 20 machine, and the finishes are the only thing that matter in fantasy racing, right? Fontana is a track that favors the Roush-Fenway organization and Ricky was always strong on the intermediate tracks in the Nationwide series last season (I would give you stats, but NASCAR.com is pretty much impossible to navigate and when you do find what you’re looking for, the site doesn’t work anyway). The #17 wasn’t super strong in any practice session this weekend but Stenhouse logs laps, stays on the lead lap, and is there at the end. He should at least be in the top 20 when it’s all said and done on Sunday, if not the top 15.
Sleepers To Consider For The Auto Club 400:
A.J. Allmendinger – Allmendinger is the ultimate sleeper this weekend, and he’s going to be a popular pick, too. I consider him such a good sleeper simply because there are so many good things to say about this #51 Chevrolet this weekend. First, it’s been fast off the truck and solidly inside the top 10 in all three practice sessions. Second, this race last year was the second-best effort from this team for the season: Kurt Busch wheeled the #51 to a 9th-place finish in the rain-shortened event (although, to be fair, he was running in the teens for most of the day). Finally, the #51 has been pretty strong all year thus far, posting three finishes of 13th or better and a worst result of 21st among three drivers sharing the ride: Regan Smith, Austin Dillon, and A.J. Allmendinger. The only negative thing I have for A.J. this week is that he didn’t qualify very well (he’ll start 24th) and because of that they may have some problems during pit stops, as they pit right in front of Matt Kenseth. It’s very possible that the #20 will be leaving as the #51 enters. Still, it’s not very often you get a sleeper that looks this good, and Allmendinger has finished 14th and 15th in his last two Sprint Cup starts at Fontana.
Casey Mears – I’ve always viewed the intermediate tracks as the #13 team’s strength. Since joining Germain Racing, Casey Mears has finished between 23rd and 29th in three Fontana races, and let’s not forget that this team has two top 15 finishes to their credit in the first four races this season (Phoenix and Bristol). Due to the engine changes of Biffle and Keselowski, Mears will start this year’s Auto Club 400 in 9th position, which is pretty good for this team. That being said, don’t expect Casey to stay up there long (you can’t expect the world from sleepers). Still, a top 20 is still attainable for the #13 team as long as they don’t run into any problems during the race. It’s worth noting that Mears finished 20th in the first Michigan race last season, the other 2-mile track on the circuit.
Jamie McMurray – The Earnhardt-Ganassi cars have better engine packages this year so I’m really liking Jamie Mac and Juan Montoya as sleepers pretty often this season. McMurray will roll off the grid in 15th on Sunday and Montoya will start 10th. I do think the #1 Chevrolet is a tick better than the #42, though. Jamie was 9th in Happy Hour and had a respectable 7th-best ten-lap average during the first practice session on Saturday. JPM never made any long runs this weekend, and although he had could put up a comparable fast lap on the speed chart, I like McMurray better in actual race conditions. The #1 team has finished 13th or better in the last two Sprint Cup events (including a top 10 at Bristol last week) and Jamie has had some good runs here at Fontana in the past (17th in both races in 2010). I think the #1 Chevrolet should be good for at least a top 20 on Sunday and could sneak up into the top 15 when it’s all said and done. It’s worth noting that Montoya has finished 17th or better in five of the last six races at this track.
