Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Texas – NRA 500

Two in a Row for Johnson?

This week the Sprint Cup series is at Texas Motor Speedway for the first night race of the season. This track is  1.5-miles in length, and so far the only track we’ve been to with the Gen-6 car at that length has been Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The two venues are somewhat comparable, but not really. Because this is the first night race, NASCAR decided to give the teams extra track time in the form of two testing sessions on Thursday (totaling 3.5 hours). Those speeds can be found here: Test #1 — Test #2. On Friday, two official practice sessions were held, and those speeds can be found here: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. Additionally, ifantasyrace has you covered with in-depth notes for each practice, and those are here: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. In my opinion, Test #2 had the track conditions closest to race conditions and are the most relevant speeds to look at before the race. The Busch brothers will bring the field to the green for Saturday’s NRA 500, and the full starting lineup can be found by clicking here.

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Final Top 15 Ranking For The NRA 500:

11. Martin Truex, Jr. – Starts 5th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

The #56 Toyota has shown some speed here at Texas this weekend, but it’s hard to trust Truex right now because of how inconsistent and disappointing he’s been in 2013 thus far. That being said, you can’t forget that this team was one of the best on the intermediate tracks in 2012 all season long. Additionally, Martin has finished 13th or better in each of the last three Texas Sprint Cup races and he won the pole and led 69 laps in this event last year. After posting the fastest lap (and 5th-best ten-lap average) in Practice #1 on Friday, Truex followed that up with the 5th-best lap in Happy Hour and 4th-best ten-lap average. I don’t think he’s going to be able to stay up near his 5th-place qualifying position all night on Saturday, but a top 10 isn’t out of the question for this #56 team at all. There’s still risk there, though, so keep that in mind before locking in.

12. Clint Bowyer – Starts 10th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Bowyer was another one of those drivers that got a bad qualifying draw and it ended up hurting him. He’ll have quite a few cars to pass when the green flag waves on Saturday night (but less than Biffle), and it’s a good thing that passing looks easier here than at some of the other races this season in the Gen-6 car. Believe it or not, Texas is one of Bowyer’s better tracks on the Sprint Cup circuit. In fourteen career starts here, Clint has recorded eight top 10 finishes and an average finish of 12.8. When you look at his success here recently, though, it gets even better. In the ten events here since the 2008 season, Bowyer has recorded seven top 10s with a best finish of 2nd back in 2011. The #15 Toyota was 12th-fastest in Happy Hour and had the 6th-best ten-lap average, too. During Test #2 on Thursday–which is the most similar session of the weekend compared to what race-time track conditions wil be–Clint had the 3rd-best ten-lap average right behind Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon. He’ll challenge for a top 10 this weekend but I don’t see Bowyer going for the win for the second week in a row. Still, he’ll be a solid pick in most leagues.

13. Aric Almirola – Starts 3rd – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Aric Almirola said during practice on Friday that the #43 Ford was really fast this weekend, which I thought was the typical driver talk in front of the cameras that we get from almost everyone in the garage. But then he went out and posted the 3rd-best lap in Happy Hour, and despite having a less-than-favorable draw in qualifying, qualified 3rd. Last fall, Aric got his career-best finish at Texas, coming home 15th, and in the two intermediate races in 2013 thus far (Las Vegas and Fontana), Almirola has finished 16th and 14th. Texas Motor Speedway has been a strength for the Fords over the years, and that’s just another reason to like the #43 as a sleeper pick on Saturday night. As usual, Almirola isn’t exactly the most reliable in terms of fantasy value, but I think he has a bunch of upside this weekend and could surprise some people. Richard Petty Motorsports tends to go on streaks, so when they’re strong it’s usually a good idea to use them.

14. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. – Starts 17th – Yahoo! C Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

This is an awesome track for the Roush-Fenway organization, and Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. tends to excel at these intermediate venues, so what’s not to like? He’ll start the NRA 500 on Saturday night in 17th place and should be in the top 20 all night long. The #17 Ford was fast in the testing sessions on Thursday but then regressed a little bit on Friday. Still, Stenhouse ended Happy Hour with the 9th-fastest lap and has posted top 20s in both intermediate races this season thus far. It might be a little bit of a reach to think he could pull off a top 10 on Saturday, but a top 15 definitely isn’t out of the question for this team. In allocation leagues (like Yahoo!), I still think you should save Stenhouse for later on in the season, plus there are quite a other picks that should be good, too (Dillon, Bayne, Mears).

15. Paul Menard – Starts 20th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Paul Menard is still quietly putting together a solid start to the 2013 season and still hasn’t finished worse than 21st this year—and I don’t expect that to change on Saturday night. The #27 has posted top 10s in both intermediate track races so far in 2013, and they could have a shot at getting another here Saturday night if they play their cards right. In thirteen career starts at this race track, Menard has only two top 10s to his credit, but on the bright side they have both come within the last five races. He finished 18th and 27th here last season, but should do better this time around. The #27 is becoming a more popular pick when it comes to sleeper drivers on the weekend, and for good reason. The only concerning I can think of is Kevin Harvick’s engine problem and whether or not that will go through the entire RCR organization. I don’t think it will, but I’m not mechanic.

Sleepers To Consider For The NRA 500:

Casey Mears – One of the most pleasant surprises thus far in the 2013 season has been Casey Mears and the #13 Germain Racing team. After his 16th-place finish at Martinsville, Mears has now finished 16th or better in each of the last three races and in four of the last five. You really can’t ask for more out of a low-tier team like this, and you know the old saying in fantasy racing: use ’em while their hot–and I definitely do not expect this team to keep this up all season. The #13 car was impressive during the tests (21st in Test #1 and 8th in Test #2) and followed that up with quick speeds in the two “official” practice sessions on Friday, too (10th and 20th). I fully expect Casey Mears to contend for another top 20 on Saturday night, if not a top 20.

Trevor Bayne – Texas Motor Speedway is one of Bayne’s best tracks and he can usually be counted on for a top 25 finish when he does get into the Cup car for the Wood Brothers. He finished 23rd in this car back in March at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, and in four career starts here at Texas, Trevor has three finishes of 17th and an average finish of 20.2. I think there are some other sleepers that would be a better pick than the #21 on Saturday night, but I wouldn’t blame you for taking Bayne, either, especially in the deeper leagues.

Austin Dillon – The #51 car has been pretty solid all season long (worst finish has been 22nd) and there’s no reason to believe that that won’t continue this weekend with Austin Dillon behind the wheel. He was in this car back in March at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and ended up 21st after starting 27th. During the test sessions here at Texas on Thursday, Dillon was one of the most consistent cars on track: in Test #1, he ended up 11th, and in Test #2 he was 7th-fastest. In Happy Hour on Friday, Austin was 14th on the speed chart. There’s always concern with the reliability of the equipment with this Phoenix Racing team, but they’ve completed all but one lap this season so that concern is becoming less relevant with every passing week. I expect Austin Dillon to challenge for a top 20 on Saturday night.

Those To Avoid For The NRA 500:

Joey Logano – The simple rule with Joey Logano is avoid him whenever he’s not fast off the truck, and that’s the exact case this weekend at Texas Motor Speedway. The highest the #22 Ford was on any of the four speed sheets on Thursday and Friday was 19th, it seemed like they almost got worse as the Friday practices went on. Joey ended up 19th and 11th in the two Texas races last season but I honestly think he’ll have a hard time cracking the top 20 this weekend–at least at the beginning of the race. The Penske teams tend to improve as the race goes on, though, so Logano could surprise me on Saturday night, but I would still avoid him at all costs in fantasy.

Mark Martin – Usually, Mark Martin is really fast in practice and then ends up fading during the race. This week, he hasn’t been entirely impressive and is starting mid-pack. I’m not saying that he won’t be able to compete for a decent finish on Saturday night, but I’ve written off Mark Martin until he can prove to me that he can be reliable. I think it’s much too risky to pick him even though he consistently puts up fast laps.