Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Kansas – STP 400

A First For Kyle Busch?

After this race last season, Kansas Speedway was repaved so really the only data we have on the “new” track is the Hollywood Casino 400 here last fall–Matt Kenseth won, by the way. On Friday, Matt also won the pole for Sunday’s STP 400, barely beating out his ex-teammate Carl Edwards. The full starting lineup for the race this Sunday can be found by clicking here. As far as practice goes, the schedule this weekend was a bit different than what we’ve gotten used to this season. There was one session before qualifying on Friday (I consider those speeds worthless) and then two practices early Saturday. For the results of those three sessions, click here: Practice #1 — Practice #2 — Happy Hour. As always, ifantasyrace has in-depth notes for each practice as well, and those are here: Practice #1 — Practice #2 — Happy Hour.

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Final Top 15 Ranking For The STP 400:

11. Paul Menard – Starts 12th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Menard and the #27 car have been solid sleeper picks all season long and that looks to be the case once again this weekend. In Practice #2 on Saturday, Paul was inside the top 10 in terms of fast lap, and in Happy Hour he had the third-best ten-lap average despite never really laying down a fast lap. He qualified 12th on Friday, which is a good start, and it’s worth remembering that Menard finished 3rd here last fall (the first race on the “new” Kansas pavement) after leading six laps. He hasn’t finished outside of the top 20 here since 2009 and that shouldn’t change on Sunday. Depending on how this team keeps up with the track, Paul could have top 10 potential when it’s all said and done. Remember, he finished 10th at Las Vegas earlier this season, which has been the only other 1.5-mile track we’ve raced at during the day.

12. Clint Bowyer – Starts 10th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Kansas is Clint Bowyer’s home track and although he has never won here, he has had some good showings in the past. On the new surface here last fall, Clint qualified the #15 Toyota in 3rd and went on to finish 6th after leading five laps. That was the first time he led here since back in 2006. In nine career starts here, Bowyer has amassed an average finish of 14th and has finished inside the top 10 on four separate occasions. In this event last season, he lost an engine and ended up finishing 36th. You can’t predict mechanical issues but I’m not too worried about that happening this weekend. What’s most concerning is that on the intermediate tracks this season, Bowyer has finished 27th (Las Vegas), 35th (Fontana), and 15th (Texas). Keep in mind, however, that the #15 was very strong in Fontana but had an engine issue. If you’re a fan of streaks, you should look at Clint’s finishes in 2013 thus far. Since Daytona, he has one finish outside of the top 10, and then one finish inside the top 10 the next week. If that continues on Sunday, Bowyer should be a pretty solid fantasy pick, and it doesn’t hurt that his car is decently fast, too. He wasn’t exactly happy with his car in Happy Hour but you could look at that in a positive light by saying that the track is probably going to be much difference during the race on Sunday.

13. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 23rd – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

This team now has had two bad weeks in a row, so I’m sure fantasy racers are getting a little concerned when picking the #88 right about now, but the fact of the matter is that this team has put out top 10 cars every single week this year, and this weekend at Kansas is no exception. Sometimes bad lucks happens, and unfortunately for this team (and Junior’s fantasy owners) it has happened twice in a row. Earnhardt struggled in qualifying just like the rest of the Hendrick Motorsports clan, but he’s used to coming from mid-pack, so I’m not exactly worried about it. In the first practice session, he went out and posted a top 10 lap speed, and in Happy Hour the #88 ended up 14th-fastest. As far as Junior’s history at Kansas goes, he’s never raced on this “new surface” (he didn’t race the fall race last year due to concussions) but he did finish 7th in the spring race and ended up 2nd in the spring race during the 2011 season. Dale has finished inside the top 15 in eight of his thirteen starts at Kansas and he should make it nine of fourteen on Sunday. There’s a little more risk than usual when picking the #88 this weekend (in my opinion) but then again this is very good team and their bad luck will turn around soon. You can’t be concerned with mechanical issues or team mistakes, nor can you try and predict them.

14. Sam Hornish, Jr. – Starts 4th – Yahoo! C Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**

One of the biggest surprises in qualifying on Friday was Sam Hornish, Jr. and the #12 Ford. He ended up 4th-fastest and while I don’t think he’ll finish quite that high, a solid finish isn’t out of the question for Sam. He actually raced here in both races last season and came home with finishes of 19th and 26th. In deep leagues and allocation leagues, Hornish should be a great pick on Sunday. He posted the 2nd-fastest ten-lap average during the first practice session on Saturday and in happy hour he was 11th on the speed chart with the 2nd-best ten-lap average again. The Penske Fords have been strong on the intermediate tracks all season long so I really think that Sam will have a fast car. It’s all going to come down to how he races and whether or not his pit crew is up to par. Hornish was 12th in the Kansas race in the Nationwide series last season and has been solid on the intermediate tracks in that series in 2013, too.

15. Jamie McMurray – Starts 14th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

There are quite a few drivers that I consider almost tied for this 15th-place ranking this weekend, but I’m going to give it to Jamie McMurray because I like how consistent this team has been this weekend. The #1 Chevrolet had the best ten-lap average in both practice sessions on Saturday and Jamie put down the 13th and 15th-fastest laps. Last year at Kansas–which was a very down year for this team–McMurray ended up 14th and 15th, and he’s been pretty good on the intermediate tracks this season, too (his 13th-place effort at Las Vegas is what sticks in my mind the most). Jamie Mac has snuck up one some people in races this season and I think he could do it once again on Sunday. Earnhardt-Ganassi has a stronger engine supplier this year, and it’s showing–then again their teams couldn’t get much worse than what they were in 2012.

Just missing the top 15: Ryan Newman, Marcos Ambrose, Mark Martin, Brian Vickers, Kevin Harvick

Sleepers To Consider For The STP 400:

Elliott Sadler – Sunday will mark Sadler’s first Cup race at a track other than Daytona since he was racing full-time in 2010. The good news is that he has been running pretty well in the Nationwide Series and he’s in solid JGR equipment this weekend with the #81 car. Elliott has made ten career Cup starts at Kansas Speedway and his best finish has been 4th (back in 2004). He’ll roll off the grid in 24th on Sunday and could challenge for a top 20 when it’s all said and done. The only concern I have is that he might be running an experimental engine/setup and those tend to blow up more often than the normal motors. You can’t predict engine failures, though. In deeper leagues Sadler would be a great pick, in my opinion.

Casey Mears – My sleeper pick of Casey Mears at Texas last weekend really backfired on me, but I guess that’s why they call it a sleeper pick, right? The fact of the matter is that this team has finished in the teens more often than not thus far in 2013, and although I don’t see Casey getting quite that far up on Sunday, a mid-20s finish isn’t out of the reach for this team. In this race last season, Mears ended up 26th despite being four laps down. At Vegas back in March (the other daytime 1.5-mile race this year), this team came home with a 29th-place finish, and will probably end up around there on Sunday in Kansas as well. If there’s a bunch of cautions and the #13 can stay on the lead lap, though, Mears may surprise some people again this weekend.

Who To Avoid For The STP 400:

Jeff Gordon – There are so many reasons that you should avoid Jeff Gordon this weekend that I’m not even going to take the time to list them all out. Really the only track that he’s been good and been able to get the finish is Martinsville, and that’s pretty much a given for this guy. Week in and week out this team just runs into bad luck or something breaks mechanically. This weekend, Jeff backed it into the wall during his qualifying lap and the #24 team had to bring out the backup car. In the two practice sessions on Saturday, they searched for speed for the entire two hours and never found it. It’s not a good sign when David Stremme is consistently putting up faster laps than you in practice. Stay away from the #24 until further notice.