Talladega Aaron’s 499 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Predictions

1. Clint Bowyer – Clint Bowyer is arguably the safest fantasy pick you can make for the Talladega Aaron’s 499. I truly believe he provides you the best chance to get a good finish and avoid “The Big One”. He’s a two-time winner at Talladega and has finished in the top twelve in 9 of the last 11 races. One of his non top twelve finishes came in last falls race. In that event he was the leader at the start of the Green-White-Checker but Matt Kenseth came down on the track and it got Bowyer out of line which lead to his involvement in the “Big One”. Prior to the 2012 fall race he had five consecutive top 7 finishes. In terms of Restrictor Plate Track Type Strength Rankings I have him ranked #2. Another factor I like about Bowyer is that he’s starting to build momentum (external link to FRCS). He’s finished in the top five in four of the last six weeks.

Get the ifantasyrace advantage and read our full fantasy analysis

2. Matt Kenseth – Matt Kenseth is deservedly a very popular pick this week. Last year on this track type he dominated the competition. At Talladega he was very good last season. He finished 3rd in the spring race and won the fall race. This season he’s no longer with Roush Fenway but he still appears to be strong. In the Daytona 500 he led nearly half the race (86 laps) but was sidelined with an engine failure. In terms of Restrictor Plate Track Type Strength Rankings he’s a unanimous #1. The reason why I don’t have Matt Kenseth #1 this week is his track history. Prior to last season his most recent top ten finish here was in 2006.

Looking for a Dark Horse Driver? Here’s six sleeper options

3. Brad Keselowski – Brad Keselowski has been very successful at Talladega. He’s the defending champion of the spring race and he also won here in 2009. In terms of him being a safe pick I believe he comes a close second to Clint Bowyer. As long as he doesn’t have problems here he’s a lock for a top ten. He’s raced here 8 times and has finished in the top ten 75% percent of the time. Currently he has three consecutive top 7 finishes. If your fantasy league rewards points for leading laps he’s a very good prospect. Only once in his career here has he failed to not lead any laps. In the season opening Daytona 500 he finished 4th.

4. Kevin Harvick – Momentum is a magical force in fantasy racing and Kevin Harvick has some by virtue of his win last week. In terms of track type strength he’s very good on this type of venue. I think the era of tandem drafting was a setback for him but now that it’s gone his fantasy value is higher in my eyes. In the Daytona 500 earlier this season Kevin Harvick was the  favorite to win because he won the Shootout and his Duel race. In the Daytona 500 he didn’t get a chance to show his muscle because he was involved in a wreck early. From a career perspective Harvick has been a relativley safe option. He’s finished in the top twelve 54% percent of the time. Last fall at Talladega Harvick had a top five car but got swept up in the late “Big One”.