Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Darlington – Bojangles Southern 500
Hamlin’s First Race Back: Should You Pick Him?
This week we’re at Darlington Raceway for the annual Southern 500, and unlike most weekends there are a whole lot of extra variables that we, as fantasy racers, have to consider; it’s Denny Hamlin’s first full race back since his back injury, Brad Keselowski and Matt Kenseth’s crew chiefs are both suspended, and there’s rain in the forecast for Saturday night (the last time I checked, there was a 50% chance). Darlington is a venue that truly is a skill track. It’s a tough place to get around for just one lap, let alone the 367 scheduled. The best drivers will rise to the top by the end of the race, so this generally isn’t a week to take sleepers. That being said, sometimes there are surprises.
There were two practice sessions this weekend, both on Friday before qualifying. For the full practice results, you can find them here: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. Also, Ryan does a great job with notes for each practice sessions, and those can be found here: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. It’s worth noting that in Happy Hour teams focused mainly on qualifying, so one could make a very good argument that those speeds aren’t very important this week. Kurt Busch will lead the field to the green on Saturday night, and the full starting lineup for the 2013 Southern 500 can be found by clicking here.
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Final Top 15 Ranking For The Southern 500:
11. Clint Bowyer – Starts 13th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Clint Bowyer’s record at “The Lady In Black” is anything but amazing, but when he actually finishes the race he tends to be good for at least a top 15 finish. He ended up 11th in this race one year ago and in 2007, Clint ended up 9th after a pole run in qualifying. The #15 Toyota ended up with the 5th-best ten-lap average in first practice, so there looks to be some consistent speed there. Also, this team has some momentum on their side, so Bowyer might surprise me this weekend. In the last five Sprint Cup races, the #15 has finished inside the top 5 in three of them. It was reported that Bowyer’s crew chief sounded really confident in practice, if that’s worth anything to you.
12. Kevin Harvick– Starts 10th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Harvick was 9th on the ten-lap average chart in first practice on Saturday and might be able to challenge for a top 10 if he doesn’t fade late in the race, which has happened a lot more often than not this season. He starts 10th, which is good and a little surprising, and it does seem like this team is finally starting to get something going. Still, Richard Childress Racing has been anything but reliable this season, so you have to keep that in mind if you’re going to take any of the drivers from that stable. In sixteen career starts at Darlington, Harvick has averaged a finish of 18.8 with eight finishes inside the top 15. He should be able to make it nine on Saturday night, but I don’t think he’ll be able to add another top 10 to his resume here.
13. Jeff Gordon – Starts 8th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Finally this team is starting to run a little better. Jeff Gordon has now finished 13th or better in the last three Sprint Cup races and he should easily make it four in a row on Saturday night. There’s some risk in taking the #24 this week, but that’s only because Gordon has disappointed fantasy owners all season long (except Martinsville). Jeff is a 7-time winner at Darlington with the most recent victory coming in 2007. He finished 35th here last season but from 2004 to 2010, Gordon finished inside the top 5 in every single race here. It’s obvious that he knows how to get around this track, so it will all depend on whether or not he can bring it home on Saturday. The #24 was inside the top 10 in ten-lap average during the first practice session, so Gordon should be good on the long runs–and it doesn’t hurt that he starts 8th.
14. Greg Biffle – Starts 9th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
This ranking is probably going to end up being too low for The Biff come Saturday night, but this team is struggling to get finishes right now and you have to take that into consideration as a fantasy racer. That being said, the #16 Ford will roll off the grid in 9th on Saturday night and was inside the top 10 in both practice sessions on Friday. Also, Greg’s record here isn’t too shabby: in twelve career starts here, Biffle has averaged a finish of 14th and recorded eight finishes of 12th or better, including two wins in 2005 and 2006. There’s more risk than normal in taking the #16 this weekend but if Biffle can get through the whole race he could challenge for a top 10.
15. Brad Keselowski – Starts 26th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Penske Racing hasn’t been on top of their game this season when it comes to qualifying, so Keselowski and Logano’s poor starting spots can’t be too surprising. Paul Wolfe won’t be at the track this week, so it will be interesting to see how this Blue Deuce team responds. It’s a little worrisome, but then again Brad is a champion for a reason. In four career starts here at Darlington, BK owns an average finish of 9.3 with a career-best finish of 3rd coming here in 2011. He hasn’t finished worse than 15th at this track and I don’t expect that to change on Saturday night, either. Kez worked on race trim in both practice sessions on Friday and he always finds a way to get the finish. There’s quite a few other drivers I would take before Keselowski this week but he could still be a solid pick, especially in NASCAR.com’s Fantasy Live.
A Few Words About Other Drivers:
Regan Smith is going to be a popular sleeper this weekend. He won here in 2011 (I use that term loosely, as Carl Edwards let him win) but has finished 17th or better in his last three starts here. For whatever reason, the #51 team has been terrible at setting this car up for qualifying all season long, so Smith has some work to do on Saturday night. If he can stay on the lead lap, a top 20 is possible. Paul Menard showed some good speed in practice on Friday (as well as the best ten-lap average in the first session) and ended up 15th in qualifying. He could surprise some people but a good finish isn’t guaranteed for him. He ended up 13th here one year ago. Jeff Burton will start 11th in this year’s Southern 500 but I wouldn’t expect that good of a finish. He definitely knows how to race here, but it’s Jeff Burton. He just doesn’t have the aggressiveness to finish strong here anymore. It’s worth noting, however, Burton has top 20s in six of the last seven Darlington races, and that includes four top 10s. Mark Martin isn’t good here anymore, and the #55 car isn’t that fast this weekend, either. A top 20 is within reach but not much more. Juan Montoya will start 12th on Saturday night, and although he does have a 5th-place finish to his credit here at Darlington (back in 2010), he’s far too risky of a pick for me to consider in any league. I was hoping to see more speed out of Aric Almirola this weekend because I like what this team has going right now. He was 19th here one year ago and I expect his top 10 streak to come to an end on Saturday night. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. qualified 14th for his first Sprint Cup start at “The Track Too Tough To Tame,” but this venue is not very nice to rookies. You definitely don’t want to use him in allocation leagues this week, and in other leagues there are just too many other options in his tier that are better picks. Finally, Joey Logano, who finished 10th in this race one year ago, might be one driver to consider in some deeper leagues because he did have the 6th-best ten-lap average in first practice. He’ll roll off the grid in 30th but should move up somewhat quickly once the green flag waves. How far will he make it? It’s not certain, but I think Joey will challenge for a top 15.
