Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Charlotte – Coca-Cola 600
A Seventh For JJ?
NASCAR’s longest race of the season is on Sunday and we have more data to analyze this weekend than usual. The All Star Race was here at Charlotte last Saturday and the cars were on the track for three separate practice sessions this weekend in preparation for the 600-miler on Sunday. With it being such a long race, there are generally some concerns about mechanical failures, but those can’t be predicted. Denny Hamlin put his #11 Toyota on the pole Thursday, barely edging out Kurt Busch. The full starting lineup for the 2013 Coca-Cola 600 can be found by clicking here. To view the practice speeds of the weekend, those can be found here (I wouldn’t pay much attention to the first session): Practice #1 — Practice #2 — Happy Hour. In-depth notes from each session can be found here: Practice #1 — Practice #2 — Happy Hour. And finally, a new ifantasyrace feature debuted this week: Live Happy Hour Analysis, so be sure to check that out.
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Final Top 15 Ranking For The Coca-Cola 600:
11. Joey Logano – Starts 31st – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
The #22 was really, really strong in the All Star Race last weekend and that gave me high hopes for Logano coming into this weekend. Then he went out and qualified 31st on Thursday and my expectations lowered. That being said, Logano had a couple real strong practice sessions on Saturday and his #22 Ford is really good in race trim. He is sneakily becoming one of the better intermediate track racers in the series and because this race is 600 miles, that gives Joey plenty of time to get through the field. Something that will probably hinder him on Sunday night, however, is his pit stall selection. Logano is in stall #2 right behind Denny Hamlin and right in front of Martin Truex, Jr. There could definitely be problems there. Going into the race I think Joey has a top 10 car but whether or not he’ll finish there is up in the air. This is, statistically, the best track on the circuit for Logano.
12. Kevin Harvick – Starts 15th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
“Happy” Harvick has now posted top 5s in two of the last three points-paying Sprint Cup races, but I still don’t have a lot of confidence in this team. Harvick was middle-of-the-road during the practice sessions on Saturday and that’s how this team has been for most of the season. That being said, Charlotte has been one of Harvick’s better tracks as of late, although his career average finish of 18th here suggests otherwise. The #29 was 8th in this race one year ago after winning the 2011 Coca-Cola 600. In fact, Harvick has finished 11th or better in five of the last six Charlotte races. This ranking will probably end up being too low for the #29 but I just think there are better (and safer) options this week.
13. Jamie McMurray – Starts 9th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
Jamie Mac is on my radar almost every weekend because I like how much the Earnhardt-Ganassi organization has turned things around this season. He went out and put the #1 Chevrolet in 9th during qualifying on Thursday and followed that up with some real strong practice sessions on Saturday (10th-fastest in Practice #2 and 6th quick in Happy Hour). Additionally, McMurray had the 3rd-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour after posting the 7th-best in Practice #2. He’s a two-time winner at Charlotte Motor Speedway and finished 21st and 17th here last season despite being in such a major slump. It’s definitely risky to take Jamie but if he doesn’t run into any problems on Sunday night I think he could challenge for a top 10. Keep in mind how strong he was in the Sprint Showdown last weekend and McMurray finished 8th in the All Star Race.
14. Martin Truex, Jr. – Starts 17th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Truex and the #56 Toyota haven’t been extremely fast this weekend, but he’s still one of the better intermediate track racers in the series and is decent here at Charlotte. Last season Truex finished 12th and 10th in the two points-paying races at this track. He’ll roll off the grid in 17th on Sunday night and I expect him to run around there for most of the race. I wouldn’t expect the world out of this team but a top 15 is definitely within reach. Martin was 11th-fastest in practice #2 on Saturday with the 3rd-best ten-lap average. As far as pit stall selection, Truex will have Joey Logano directly in front of him but should have an easy entrance because Dave Blaney is behind him in stall #4.
15. Paul Menard – Starts 22nd – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Menard’s record here at Charlotte isn’t very good (average finish of 23.3 in 12 career starts with just one top 10) but he’s ended up around the top 15 in two of the last four events here and I’m expecting something similar out of the #27 team on Sunday night. Paul ended up 9th-fastest in Happy Hour on Saturday as well as in Practice #2 earlier. He had the 5th-best ten-lap average in the first session and should be able to pass some cars when the green flag drops on Sunday night. He starts mid-pack but there will be plenty of time to make moves. I don’t think Menard can get up around the top 10 in this year’s Coca-Cola 600 but a top 15 is within reach for this team.
A Few Words About Other Drivers:
Mark Martin will roll off the grid in 4th on Sunday but I wouldn’t expect him to stay up there for very long. He’s very good at qualifying here (and in general) but getting the finish is where Martin is lacking. I also don’t like the fact that Rodney Childers can never seem to keep up with the track conditions of a night race. A top 15 is possible but not much more. The Stewart-Haas cars of Ryan Newman and Tony Stewart still don’t have the speed that they should. Newman qualified 10th but it would surprise me if he ended up anywhere near there. I don’t see any reason to put him or Stewart on your rosters. Brad Keselowski didn’t impress me very much in the practice sessions this weekend but I’m sure he’ll still be good for solid top 15, if not top 10, finish. I do think there are better options available, though. Casey Mears could surprise some people this weekend and challenge for another top 20. He qualified 21st on Thursday and was in the teens in both practice sessions Saturday. In deeper leagues he’s probably worth a shot. Mears finished 22nd in the 2012 Coca-Cola 600. Finally, Jeff Gordon put a solid race together back at Darlington, but will he be able to do that again on Sunday? I don’t think the car is that bad this weekend, and he qualified 14th, but Gordon just isn’t trustworthy enough right now, in my opinion.
