Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Dover – FedEx 400
Can Kurt Continue His Strong Run Of Races?
This week we’re at “The Monster Mile,” Dover International Speedway, for the FedEx 400. Track position is pretty important here because cars start getting lapped so quick, and it’s worth noting that in 9 of the last 10 races here, the winner has started inside the top 10. Additionally, almost half of all of the Dover race winners have started in the first two rows. Denny Hamlin won the pole for Sunday’s race, and the full starting lineup for the race can be found by clicking here. There were three practice sessions on Friday, and I would rank them by importance in the order that they were ran. Happy Hour speeds are the ones I’ll be focusing on the most. Click here for each session’s speeds: Practice #1 — Practice #2 — Happy Hour. Also, be sure to check out Ryan’s in-depth practice notes for each session: Practice #1 — Practice #2 — Happy Hour. Finally, we did a LIVE Happy Hour analysis again this week, and that can be found by clicking here.
This week you can get EVERYTHING that ifantasyrace.com has to offer for just 99 cents! Click here to join now.
Final Top 15 Ranking For The FedEx 400:
11. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 12th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
With the Hendrick cars so fast on Saturday, Junior was kind of skipped over by most people because he was the slowest. That being said, he still has a pretty good Chevrolet underneath him and should challenge for a top 10 in the FedEx 400 on Sunday. Earnhardt was 4th in this event one year ago and followed that up with a solid 11th-place finish in the fall. He’ll roll off the grid in 12th when the green flag waves Sunday, which is a lot better than where he normally qualifies here. In final practice, Junior ended up 10th-fastest and never made a long run. He didn’t show up on the ten-lap average chart in Practice #2 either, which is a little concerning to me. Still, he has finished 12th or better in three of the last four Dover races and needs a good bounce-back week after his 39th-place finish at Charlotte last week. I don’t think the #88 will be that great on Sunday but a top 10 isn’t out of the question for this team.
12. Carl Edwards – Starts 18th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
This #99 team doesn’t make long runs in practice, and while I don’t think that’s the best move at a track like Dover, it obviously works out for them because Cousin Carl has the best average finish at this track among active drivers (8.3). He’s only won here once (back in 2007) but his consistency at The Monster Mile is amazing. In the last thirteen events here, Edwards has only finished outside of the top 11 once, and that was in this race last season (he ended up 26th–Carl’s worst finish here and only result outside of the top 10). The Roush-Fenway Fords don’t seem real strong this weekend (as a group), but the #99 is the fastest. He’s using chassis RK-802, which was ran at Richmond where Carl finished 6th. I’ll say this about Edwards this weekend: he’s better than his 20th-place ranking in Happy Hour. How much better? I’m not exactly sure, but it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if he was challenging for a top 10 at the end of the 400 miles on Sunday.
13. Kurt Busch – Starts 13th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
Kurt Busch paced Happy Hour on Saturday, but if you paid attention to his lap times it was quite evident that this car isn’t that good on the long runs. A fuel run at Dover was right around 65 laps last season, and although Busch could pass some cars early on in the run, he’ll eventually lose those positions (and probably more) as the run goes on–if the team doesn’t help the car before the race. Everyone is on the Kurt Busch bandwagon right now but he’s still a risky pick in fantasy. Yeah, this team has had a few good weeks in a row and he’s finishing races, but they’re still a single car operation and Kurt could still explode at any minute. If he makes it through the whole race on Sunday, I expect a top 15 out of Busch, but not much more. He has surprised me in the past, though… Kurt won here in 2011 while still driving for Penske.
14. Jeff Gordon – Starts 20th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Jeff Gordon is an interesting pick this week. This team started getting a little momentum right around the Richmond through Darlington races, and then last week at Charlotte the #24 Chevrolet ended up 35th. Historically this has been a pretty good track for Jeff Gordon, though, as he’s won four times and has finished inside the top 10 in over half of his 40 career starts. Gordon ended up 2nd in the fall race here last season, but before that his last top 10 came in 2009. During that five-race streak of finishes outside of the top 10, though, Gordon ended up between 11th and 13th in four of the races. He knows how to get around this place and the #24 was pretty strong in Happy Hour, posting the 5th-fastest lap and 4th-best ten-lap average. Like teammate Jimmie Johnson, Gordon will have a few cars to pass when the green flag waves, but a top 10 is within reach for this team if everything goes right. However, Gordon is still hard to trust right now, and this team isn’t hitting on all cylinders.
15. Jamie McMurray – Starts 10th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
One surprise during the two practice sessions on Saturday was the #1 Chevrolet and Jamie McMurray. In each, he ranked inside the top 5 in ten-lap average, and Jamie even posted the 6th-fastest lap in Happy Hour. He hasn’t had a top 10 here at Dover since 2008–and I don’t expect that to change on Sunday–but a top 15 definitely isn’t out of the question for this team. Over the last five races here, McMurray has averaged a finish of right around 18th. He’ll roll off the grid in 10th on Sunday, so that should help him during pit stops at keeping track position. As far as other “short” tracks (Dover is kind of different), McMurray has posted top 10s this year at both Bristol and Martinsville. He could surprise some people again on Sunday, but I don’t think he has the speed in the car to pull off a top 10 in the FedEx 400.
A Few Words About Other Drivers:
Greg Biffle and the #16 team is completely lost once again and should be avoided at all costs. As I said before, the RCR drivers just flat-out struggled in Happy Hour. Jeff Burton is on the avoid list (as usual) and I think there are better sleeper options than Paul Menard, too. Mark Martin will start the FedEx 400 from 6th but I still wouldn’t take him. He hasn’t had a top 20 since Kansas in April and wasn’t blazing fast in practice like he is during the weeks I give him some consideration. Martin finished 3rd here last fall but remember that race came down to fuel mileage. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. popped into the top 10 during Happy Hour, but that was one fast lap and his long run speed didn’t impress me at all. He starts 23rd and if he can stay on the lead lap, Stenhouse might be able to pull out a top 15. He ended up 12th here last fall (again, fuel). It’s still hard for me to get a read on the Stewart-Haas cars in practice, so I’m not sure what to think of Ryan Newman, who will start 5th. He’s won here at Dover three times but hasn’t posted a top 10 since 2010. He’s still a bit too risky for me to recommend him. Juan Montoya starts 14th and showed some speed in both practice sessions on Saturday, but his record here is terrible: 23.6 average finish and one top 20 in the last six events. Austin Dillon is in the #51 this weekend and should finish around where he starts (25th). The Petty teammates of Marcos Ambrose and Aric Almirola were a couple of my sleepers coming into the weekend, but they start so far back (30th and 33rd, respectively) that I’m not even considering them anymore. They could be decent picks in NASCAR.com Fantasy Live, and in that case I would take the #43 over the #9. Casey Mears starts 17th on Sunday and if you need a deep sleeper, he’s your guy. The #13 Ford was around the top 20 in both practice sessions on Saturday, and as long as this team doesn’t make mistakes (this isn’t very likely to happen), Mears could snatch a top 20. It’s nowhere near being guaranteed, though.
