Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Pocono – Party in the Poconos 400
Johnson’s Revenge
This week we’re at the 2.5-mile Pocono Raceway, a venue that is considered a flat track yet the cars will still probably top 200 mph going into turn one. Nicknamed “The Tricky Triangle,” this track is one of the toughest on the circuit to get the driver completely happy, and usually there won’t be any cars that will be perfect in all three turns. Remember, Pocono was re-paved before the two races here last season, and because of that those will be the main stats that I will focus on this week. Qualifying was rained out on Friday so Jimmie Johnson will start on the pole because he is the points leader. The full starting lineup for the Party in the Poconos 400 can be found by clicking here. There were two practice sessions on Saturday and the full results of those can be found here: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. Additionally, Ryan put together a bunch of in-depth notes for various drivers during those two practice and those can be read here: Practice #1 — Happy Hour.
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Final Top 15 Ranking For The Party in the Poconos 400:
11. Ryan Newman – Starts 23rd – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Believe it or not, Pocono is actually a pretty good track for Ryan Newman. I guess it isn’t totally surprising because it is a flat track, but it’s his 3rd-best track on the circuit and his 12.4 average finish here is good enough for 6th-best among active drivers. The Rocketman won from the pole here back in 2003 and has always been a solid fantasy when the series visits the Poconos. Since 2008 (nine races), Newman has never finished worse than 14th and he owns four top 10s during that span, including three in the last four races. Even though Stewart-Haas Racing has been seen as the organization with the most struggles in 2013, Newman actually has six top 10s to his credit already this season. It’s worth noting that in the two races here at Pocono in 2012, “The Rocketman” had the highest percentage of laps ran inside the top 15 (94.5%). In Happy Hour Newman ended up 5th fastest. He has a lot of cars to pass and that’s why I have him ranked outside of the top 10. I do think his car is better than this ranking.
12. Denny Hamlin – Starts 17th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Any time a driver says “we are bad” after a practice, there’s cause for concern. However, Denny Hamlin gets a little bit of a pass at Pocono because he used be a “sure” pick here. In his rookie season, he started on the pole in each of the two events here and dominated them both, ended up in victory lane each time. He went on to post three more top 6 finishes after that, and in 2009 and 2010 he won again at The Tricky Triangle. I’ll go out on a small limb here and say Hamlin knows how to get around this place better than any other driver in the series. There’s a reason that in fourteen career starts here he has led at least double-digit laps in ten of them. Last season Denny posted a 5th-place finish in the spring and followed that up with a 29th-place result in the fall, although he had a much better car than that and just got caught up in an accident. This ranking is probably too low for a guy like Hamlin but he starts mid-pack, wasn’t overly fast during the practice sessions, and then you have to take into account the engine problems that JGR has been having.
13. Jeff Gordon – Starts 11th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I really like what this #24 team is doing right now, and often times in fantasy racing you have to ride the hot hand. Gordon now has two 3rd-place finishes in the last three Sprint Cup events and he has finished worse than 11th just once since Kansas in April. As far as Pocono Raceway goes, Jeff is a six-time winner at the track and was the major beneficiary of the rain that fell her last fall that put him in victory lane. Goedon also won the spring race here in 2011 and has finished outside of the top 10 just twice in the last nine events here. It’s looking like we’re about to be able to trust Jeff Gordon again, so don’t be caught sleeping this weekend. He didn’t put down a great lap in either practice session on Saturday but the rest of the Hendrick cars are fast and Gordon should be too by the end of the 400 miles on Sunday.
14. Joey Logano – Starts 21st – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
After his 5th-place run at Charlotte and his 7th-place effort at Dover last weekend, it’s safe to say that Joey Logano has a little bit of momentum on his side coming into Pocono. Let’s not forget that in this race last season Joey had a very strong car off the truck, won the pole, and eventually found himself in victory lane after bumping Mark Martin out of the way. He followed that effort with a solid 13th-place finish in the fall. Penske Racing has been pretty strong here at Pocono over the years and there’s no reason to think that Logano won’t be a nice fantasy pick again on Sunday. It’s going to take some work from this team to get the #22 Ford into “top 10 material,” but they have shown that they can do that so I’m not overly concerned.
15. Greg Biffle – Starts 13th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
There are two ways you can view Greg Biffle in a fantasy perspective this weekend: 1.) this team is struggling mightily, still haven’t figured out this Gen-6 car, and should be avoided at all costs, or 2.) Pocono has been a good race track for The Biff and this is the weekend he finally gets his season back on track. Right now I’m leaning toward option #2. In the two races here last season, the #16 Ford had the second-best average running position (9.5) despite the fact that Biffle finished 24th and 15th. Obviously those results are misleading. Greg won here in 2010 and has a career average finish of 17.5 at The Tricky Triangle. During Happy Hour on Saturday, the #16 Ford was 11th fastest, and I think The Biff will be a solid top 15 car all day on Sunday. How far he moves up in the field will depend on how well this team adjusts on the car, and so far this season they have shown to be pretty much incompetent in that department.
