Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Indianapolis – Samuel Deeds 400

11. Brad Keselowski – Starts 12th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

There are very few drivers in the Sprint Cup series that I have full confidence in to get a finish when they really need it, but Brad Keselowski is one of those drivers, and this Blue Deuce team needs them. They got a solid top 5 finish at Loudon a couple of weeks ago so hopefully that puts some confidence in their minds. BK was decent off the truck on Friday, posting the 12th-best lap, and in Happy Hour he ended up 15th-quick. During that final practice he had the 3rd-best ten-lap average behind Kasey Kahne and Jeff Gordon. In the last two Brickyard races Keselowski has led some laps and finished 9th in each event. As long as Paul Wolfe can adjust on this car throughout the race on Sunday, BK should end up with a top 10 finish. It also doesn’t hurt that they are one of the best teams in the garage when it comes to using strategy during a race. At Pocono, Keselowski finished 16th.

12. Joey Logano – Starts 11th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Well, after being one of the most consistent teams in the garage through the five races in June, Joey Logano and this #22 team have back-to-back 40th-place finishes and might be considered (to some) in a slump. Will this be the week that they get back on track though? I guess we’ll find out soon enough. I really like the fact that Logano ran 10th at Pocono last month, and his record here at Indianapolis is decent: in four starts at The Brickyard, JoLo has two finishes of 12th or better and he qualified 3rd in this race last season before ultimately finishing 33rd (I don’t remember exactly what happened). In the practices this weekend, the Double Deuce was 6th-quickest in the first session and ranked 12th in Happy Hour. I think Joey has a top 15 car going into the race but I think it’s going to take quite a bit to get this #22 Ford in the top 10.

13. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 15th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

The #88 team unloaded their Chevrolet on Friday and the driver was happy and the speed was there (10th-fastest in 1st practice). Just 24 short hours later, Junior found himself 30th on the speed chart in Happy Hour with the left front tire bouncing really bad on the track and the car extremely tight. Cause for concern? Somewhat, but not really. I really like the fact that Earnhardt ran top 5 last month at Pocono as well as the fact that he had a solid run here at Indianapolis last season, finishing 4th with a driver rating of 107.5. This is Hendrick Motorsports and if one of the cars is struggling, they will make changes before the race to bring them up to snuff (or at least put a setup in from another car that is handling better). Dale’s record here at The Brickyard isn’t overly impressive (20.3 average finish in thirteen starts) but he should be a lock for a top 15 finish on Sunday and could get up into the top 10 depending on how well Steve Letarte adjusts on the car. It also doesn’t hurt that Letarte had quite a bit of success here with Jeff Gordon in the past.

14. Carl Edwards – Starts 3rd – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Carl Edwards gets thrown in these rankings simply because he qualified 3rd and I take starting position into consideration at most race tracks. Don’t expect the world out of the #99 this weekend, though, for a couple of reasons: 1. Edwards usually qualifies better than he races. It happens time after time yet Ryan Newman is still regarded as the qualifying master. Cousin Carl is just as bad at starting up front and falling back. And 2. He’s had some decent runs at Indianapolis, but the consistency isn’t there at all. In eight career starts here, Edwards has three top 10s and an average finish of 13.3. The only time the #99 looked fast during the practice sessions on Friday and Saturday was when the car was in qualifying trim. I fully expect Edwards to fall back once the green flag waves on Sunday but he should be able to salvage a top 15 finish when it’s all said and done.

15. Paul Menard– Starts 23rd – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Most people associate Paul Menard and his Brickyard win in 2011 with fuel mileage, and while it is true that that is how he won that race, the team still put themselves in the situation to win and Menard still had to drive the car. Also, he’s not terrible at Indianapolis by any means. He followed up that win last season with a 14th-place effort here, and he finished 14th in the race here the year before his win as well. On Friday this weekend, Paul posted the 4th-best lap in first practice before ending up 18th-quick in Happy Hour. He had the 5th-best ten-lap average during that final session behind some of the “heavy hitters” this weekend. Menard seemed happy with his car in practice this weekend and I like him for another top 15 finish at Indianapolis on Sunday–although I wouldn’t expect much more.

A Few Words About Other Drivers:

Mark Martin‘s record here at Indianapolis is incredible, but I don’t trust him at all right now. Yeah, this team is coming off their win with Brian Vickers at Loudon, but Martin’s disappointing ways are still enough to make me look past that fact as well as his eight straight finishes of 11th or better at Indianapolis. Martin Truex, Jr. finished 8th in this race last season and was 8th-fastest in first practice here on Friday, but that doesn’t negate the fact that he barely even sniffed the top 10 at this track before 2012. I think there are better options than the #56 this weekend, because although Truex may wind up near the top 10 on Sunday, chances are he’s going to finish in the teens. Jeff Burton is coming off of an incredible (for this team) 3rd-place run at Loudon and showed some speed here at Indianapolis on Saturday, posting the 13th-fastest lap in Happy Hour. From 2007 to 2010 he posted three top 10s in four starts here but it’s still Jeff Burton we’re talking about: I’m not expecting a miracle to happen two weeks in a row. Still, he ended up 11th back at Pocono last month, so that’s worth noting. Austin Dillon showed some speed in both practice sessions this weekend and is coming off of his win in the Truck Series at Eldora on Wednesday night. He should be the pick in Yahoo!’s C group (and other deeper leagues) in his first Cup start at The Brickyard. I was expecting a little bit more out of Jamie McMurray this weekend because of the switch to Hendrick engines and the fact that he finished 6th, 1st, and 4th here in the four races from 2008 to 2011, but I just don’t see the speed out of the #1 Chevrolet this weekend. His teammate is blazing fast, though, so maybe a setup change is in order for Jamie before the green flag waves on Sunday? Denny Hamlin is an “elite” driver in fantasy NASCAR and doesn’t look elite this weekend, nor will he get you that great of a finish. There are far more better options than the #11 on Sunday. Clint Bowyer is in somewhat of the same boat in my mind as Denny Hamlin, but I think his Toyota is faster. Still, I’m not expecting much more than a top 15 out of the #15 team. Finally, Greg Biffle has five straight top 10s here at Indianapolis but that will come to an end on Sunday. Not only did the #16 Ford lag behind the rest of the field during the practice sessions on Friday and Saturday, but Biffle qualified 27th for Sunday’s rest. No thank you.