Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Pocono 2 – GoBowling.com 400
Going In Blind
What was supposed to be a 2-practice Saturday turned into a downpour at Pocono and the Cup teams are essentially going into Sunday’s GoBowling.com 400 with minimal practice in race trim. Pocono Raceway was repaved prior to the 2012 spring race, which means we have three races of data on the new surface to really look at this weekend. For the most part, I will be focused solely on those events as opposed to an overall history at this track. Because the practices got rained out on Saturday, I’ll also be looking at the race at Indianapolis last weekend because that is another big, flat race track. Jimmie Johnson won the pole for Sunday’s race and will lead them to the green. The full starting lineup can be found by clicking here. The results of Practice #1 on Friday can be found here. As usual, Ryan put together extensive notes the practice, and those can be found here: Practice #1.
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Final Top 15 Ranking For The GoBowling.com 400:
11. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 25th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
One driver that has really taken to the new Pocono is Dale Earnhardt, Jr. In the first race after the repavement, Junebug led 36 laps before finishing 8th, which is where he started the day at as well. Last fall, Earnhardt qualified 8th again and led 17 laps in the rain-shortened event but finished 32nd because of mechanical issues. Before those problems, the #88 was running solidly inside the top 5 for most of the day. Fast forward to this season and Junior was fast once again at The Tricky Triangle, posting a 3rd-place finish and his fourth top 10 here in his last five starts. In the three races on the new Pocono pavement, Earnhardt has an average driver rating of 116.4, second to only Jimmie Johnson’s 124.0. The #88 team got a solid top 10 at Indianapolis last weekend and should look to make it two in a row here at Pocono on Sunday. The biggest thing Junior will have to overcome on Sunday is his 25th-place starting spot. There are plenty of places to pass at this track, though, and the #88 showed some decent speed in practice on Friday.
12. Kevin Harvick – Starts 14th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
At Pocono, Kevin Harvick tends to be either really good (he posted three straight top 5s here in 2010 and 2011) or strong but not exactly great, as evidenced by his 14th- and 16th-place finishes in the first two races on the new pavement. Back in June, the #29 Chevrolet came home 9th, and while I don’t have Harvick ranked that high going into Sunday’s GoBowling.com 400, it hasn’t been a good idea to go against the guy getting a top 10 finish over the last two months. I guaranteed a 10th-straight top 10 finish for Harvick last weekend at Indianapolis and we all know how that turned out. I’m not guaranteeing that this weekend, but a top 10 wouldn’t surprise me at all, and I like the fact that Harvick was able to qualify inside the top 15 on Friday. Also, I think it was beneficial that this team worked in race trim for half of the practice on Friday considering the rain out that occurred at Pocono on Saturday. For an elite driver, I don’t think Harvick is the pick this weekend, but I couldn’t blame you for taking him, either.
13. Carl Edwards – Starts 3rd – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
If you haven’t learned by now to not get caught up in Carl Edwards’ qualifying efforts, then I really don’t think I can help you. This team knows how to put a good qualifying setup in the car, but as far as working on race trim and keeping up with the track, they’re struggling. Also, as I mentioned before with Greg Biffle, it’s my own opinion the the Roush-Fenway Fords are lagging a little bit, which isn’t a good thing at a track like Pocono. Last weekend at Indianapolis, as you probably remember, Cousin Carl started 3rd and ran very well for the first half of the race before dropping–ultimately ending up 13th when the checkered flag waved. He started 2nd here at Pocono in June but ended up 18th (although Edwards’ driver rating of 104.1 makes it obvious that he had a lot better car than that). It’s worth noting that Carl has finished inside the top 10 in each of the last three August races at Pocono, but I just don’t see that happening on Sunday. His average finish of 13.5 here is 7th-best among active drivers.
14. Jeff Gordon – Starts 22nd – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Jeff Gordon is a six-time winner at Pocono Raceway and has a Hendrick engine, so to see him up front on Sunday during the GoBowling.com 400 wouldn’t surprise me one bit. That being said, ever since this track has been repaved, Gordon hasn’t exactly been that great. He ended up 19th in the first race on the new surface in 2012, and then here last fall he found victory lane with the help of a downpour of rain (there’s just something about precipitation and Pocono Raceway…). If you look at his Yahoo! race chart from that race (click here), it’s obvious that while Gordon started mid-pack, he had a better car than that. However, I really don’t think he would have won if it wasn’t for the rain. Back here in June, the #24 Chevrolet started 11th and had a mediocre day before finishing 12th. Gordon was 13th in Practice #1 and there are just quite a few other drivers that I like better than him this weekend. It’s worth noting that he has finished 6th or better in four of the last six Pocono races, and that includes two visits to victory lane.
15. Marcos Ambrose – Starts 8th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
SLEEPER ALERT! A fellow fantasy NASCAR enthusiast (on Twitter at @TomahawkChop95) mentioned putting Ambrose on his Yahoo! roster earlier this week, and while I didn’t think it was terrible, I also didn’t think it was the best move, simply because there were so many other (better) options. Well, I have to give Bob a shout-out here because Ambrose looks like he could surprise some people come Sunday. After posting the 7th-best lap in Practice #1 on Friday, he went out and put the #9 Ford 8th on the starting grid for Sunday’s GoBowling.com 400. At the Pocono race earlier this season, Marcos finished a decent 17th, but let’s not forget he ran top 10 here in this event last season (started 5th) and posted a solid 13th-place finish in the first race on the “new” Pocono in 2012. I really think Ambrose could sneak into a top 10 finish on Sunday, and at worst should be around a 15th-place car. He ended up 16th at Indianapolis last weekend.
A Few Words About Other Drivers:
Clint Bowyer starts 16th for Sunday’s race but I don’t see him challenging for a top 10 finish–at least going into the race. He ended up 20th at Indianapolis last weekend and finished 15th here at Pocono in June despite starting 3rd. It’s worth noting that Clint Bowyer hasn’t had a driver rating better than 88.2 at The Tricky Triangle since 2010. Jamie McMurray focused solely on qualifying in practice, which I think will come back to hurt this team on Sunday. He’ll roll off the grid in 12th on Sunday and has finishes of 13th and 10th since the repavement of this track. Brad Keselowski missed my top 15 ranking this week but it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see the 2012 champ running up front at some point during the GoBowling.com 400–but will it be at the end? He starts 11th but has finished outside of the top 15 in five of his seven starts at Pocono. I also don’t like that this #2 team only has one top 10 finish in the last seven Sprint Cup races. A.J. Allmendinger will start 15th on Sunday but should finish in his usual mid-20s spot. I’m not entirely confident about Phoenix Racing’s equipment here, either, because Pocono is hard on engines. Aric Almirola may have caught the attention of some people with his 10th-place qualifying effort on Friday but keep in mind he has started 12th and 13th in the last two Pocono races and has finished 21st and 18th. I’m not expecting anything different. Finally, Jeff Burton was the ultimate disappointment at Indianapolis last weekend but he has finished 15th and 11th in two of the three races on the “new” Pocono, and he’ll roll off the grid in 13th when the green flag flies Sunday. A top 15 wouldn’t surprise me out of the #31 team.
