Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Watkins Glen – CHEEZ-IT 355
The Road Course Sweep
We’re at Watkins Glen this weekend, the second and final road course stop on the schedule. At these tracks, having a strong race car isn’t as important as it is at many other tracks; talent accounts for a lot here, and often times these races end up coming down to strategy. I tend to view these events as pretty cut and dry when it comes to making fantasy picks. There were two practice sessions on Friday with Martin Truex, Jr. and Carl Edwards posting the fastest laps. The results of those practices can be found here: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. In case you missed the television broadcasts of them, Ryan put together a great list of notes for each session: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. On Saturday, Marcos Ambrose won the pole for Sunday’s CHEEZ-IT 355, and the full starting lineup can be found by clicking here.
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Final Top 15 Ranking For The CHEEZ-IT 355:
11. Matt Kenseth – Starts 10th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Matt Kenseth is surprisingly consistent here at Watkins Glen and could be in the hunt for a top 10 finish in the CHEEZ-IT 355 on Sunday. In the last six events here, he has finished 14th or better in all of them, but his only top 10 came last season when he finished 8th. This weekend he was terribly slow in both practice sessions but was able to put down a pretty good qualifying lap and will roll off the grid in 10th on Sunday. Make sure you note that Kenseth qualified 6th and finished 19th at Sonoma back in June. In allocation leagues there is absolutely no reason to use the #20 on Sunday but in other games you might give Matt a shot–maybe his new teammate Kyle Busch will show him a thing or two about getting around this place a little faster.
12. Brian Vickers – Starts 15th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
The last time that Brian Vickers was behind the wheel of a Sprint Cup car he went to victory lane (Loudon), but I’ll tell you right now that that isn’t going to happen on Sunday. There’s no doubt in my mind that this team has the capabilities of running top 15 at the Glen this weekend, but it would surprise me if Vickers was able to get anywhere close to the top 5. He might be able to sneak into the top 10, but even that would be a little surprising. The #55 Toyota was 8th on the speed chart in Happy Hour and has to get a little boost in these rankings because the other Michael Waltrip Racing cars are bad fast. That being said, Vickers hasn’t had a top 10 finish here at The Glen since 2005 and I don’t see that changing on Sunday. He ran a respectable race at Sonoma back in June, finishing 13th after starting all the way back in 34th.
13. Kasey Kahne – Starts 19th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Kahne has some momentum on his side with his win last week at Pocono, and that has to be worth something. Also, remember that back in June at Sonoma he ended up finishing 6th after starting 15th. He’ll have a few more drivers to pass at The Glen on Sunday but I still have confidence that Kasey can get this #5 Chevrolet toward the front. The real question is how high will he end up? Kahne wasn’t overly impressive in either practice session on Friday but he did end up 13th here last year, his first season with Hendrick. With two straight top 5 finishes, this #5 team seems to be getting on a role, but if you haven’t noticed by now, consistency is not one of Kasey Kahne’s qualities. He hasn’t finished inside the top 10 in nine career starts at Watkins Glen and I seriously don’t see him getting his first career one on Sunday, either. Top 15? Yes.
14. Greg Biffle – Starts 17th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
The Biff gets ranked this weekend because he ran 7th here at The Glen last season and was a top 10 driver at Sonoma back in June this season as well (he finished 8th). The Roush-Fenway Fords are lagging a little bit in the speed department right now, but that’s not extremely important on the road courses, as I’ve mentioned before. I don’t think Greg is going to be able to replicate his recent top 10 runs on these road courses this Sunday but a top 15 out of this #16 team isn’t out of the question. I wouldn’t use Biffle in any allocation league (like Yahoo!) but he might be worth considering in some games out there. In Happy Hour the #16 Ford was 11th on the speed chart after ending up 15th fastest in 1st Practice. This team has finished 17th or better in three of the last four Sprint Cup races and should be a mid-teens pick on Sunday again.
15. Jamie McMurray – Starts 6th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
Jamie Mac seems to be learning some things from his teammate, Juan Montoya. What’s unfortunate for fantasy owners of the #1 Chevrolet is that he hasn’t really gotten the finishes yet. In case you don’t remember the race at Sonoma earlier this year, McMurray won the pole and ran pretty well until about midway through. He ended up finishing 25th but did run better than that. This weekend at Watkins Glen, Jamie went out and qualified 6th on Saturday after a few decent (at best) practices on Friday. I’m giving McMurray a little bump this weekend because of his starting spot. He finished 17th here in 2011 after running 6th at The Glen the season before. If he can stay out of trouble, McMurray should be a top 15 pick on Sunday afternoon.
A Few Words About Other Drivers:
Jeff Gordon is a four-time winner at Watkins Glen so why don’t I have him in my top 15 this weekend? Because he simply hasn’t been that great here as of late. Over the last five events at this track, the #24 has just one top 10 finish compared to three finishes outside of the top 20. This weekend Gordon qualified 28th and was 12th- and 13th-fastest in the two practice sessions. He’ll be a good pick in NASCAR.com Fantasy Live but in other leagues I just think there are far better options available this weekend. Casey Mears is another driver that could be a good play in NASCAR.com’s game. He really screwed up his qualifying lap and will roll off the grid in 30th, but the #13 Ford is a better car than that. Casey ended up 16th at Sonoma back in June and ran 16th here at Watkins Glen last season as well. Joey Logano is a wildcard this weekend in my mind. He has a 5th-place run to his credit here at The Glen (2011) but his three other starts here have all ended with him outside of the top 15. The Penske Fords are good here, though, and Joey ended up 11th at Sonoma back in June. Kevin Harvick might be able to challenge for a top 10 when we get to the closing laps on Sunday but he starts 26th and track position is huge here. He’s finished 15th or better in four of the last five Watkins Glen races. Michael McDowell has some sleeper potential here this weekend because he’s shown speed every day (he qualified 12th). He’s driving for Front Row Motorsports so he probably won’t do his usual start and park thing either. Don’t expect the world but a top 20 is possible. I’m not 100% sure of the situation with the #51 car (whether they will run the full race or not), but Kelly Owens is in that car and qualified 23rd. Ron Fellows and Boris Said should both run the full race but I don’t see either of them being better than the mid-20s. Finally, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. starts 25th on Sunday and if you’re even considering using him at a road course I don’t know why you’re playing fantasy NASCAR.
