Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Richmond 2 – Federated Auto Parts 400
Is Logano A Legitimate Championship Contender?
This week is the second and final stop at Richmond International Raceway for the 2013 season, and after Saturday night’s race we will know the twelve drivers that will be fighting for this year’s championship. This is also the last night race for a little over a month, which is good news to me. NASCAR ran a condensed schedule this weekend with everything happening on Friday. The drivers practiced in the heat of the day and then qualified in the evening before the Nationwide race. Because of this, I’m putting a little more emphasis on track record than normal, as I don’t see practice speeds as important as normal this week. Still, here’s the results for each session: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. For a more in-depth analysis, be sure to check out the notes for each practice as well: Practice #1 — Happy Hour. Chase hopeful Jeff Gordon won the pole for this year’s Federated Auto Parts 400 and the full starting lineup can be found by clicking here. In case you forgot what happened the last time we visited Richmond, here’s a great post detailing the Toyota Owner’s 400 that was ran back in April (click here).
Richmond is a track that I think has more opportunities to take some risky/sleeper picks that other venues. This week’s race is 400 miles and track conditions will be changing a lot. We’ll see a lot of comers and goers. Practice #1 was when most cars worked on race runs. Some of them took time in Happy Hour to improve on their long runs but most drivers used that second session to see how good of a car they had for qualifying. So, as you probably guessed, the first session speeds are more important this week. Still, that practice was held in the mid-afternoon and the race on Saturday won’t start until 7:45 pm.
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Final Top 15 Ranking For The Federated Auto Parts 400:
11. Juan Montoya– Starts 12th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
The saying in fantasy NASCAR is “run ’em while they’re hot.” While this is true, there needs to be an asterisk next to Juan Montoya’s name, simply because he’s a lot more risky of a pick than most drivers. That being said, I still like him as a solid sleeper pick Saturday night at Richmond. Ever since learning he probably won’t have a respectable ride in the Cup series next year, JPM has been a man on a mission, starting with a 9th-place run at Indianapolis followed by four finishes of 11th or better in the next five races, including his 7th-place run at Atlanta last Sunday night (with 38 laps led I might add). For whatever reason, Montoya is starting to finish races, and really the whole Earnhardt-Ganassi organization is getting on the level they should be at. What I probably like most about Juan this week, however, is that Richmond really hasn’t been a terrible oval for him since coming into NASCAR’s top series: in the last nine races here, JPM has just one finish outside of the top 20 and six finishes of 15th or better, including four top 10s and a career-best result of 4th here back in April. You’re going to be holding your breath the entire 400 miles on Saturday night if you pick him but Montoya is an excellent off-sequence pick this weekend. The #42 Chevrolet had the 11th-best ten-lap average during Practice #1 on Friday
12. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 14th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
It’s not very often that Dale Earnhardt, Jr. says that his race car is “great,” but that’s exactly the case this weekend. During the first practice session of the weekend, Junior really didn’t have anything bad to say about the #88 and backed it up on the speed chart, too, posting the 7th-fastest lap and the 7th-best ten-lap average. He finished 10th here back in April and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see him up there once again on Saturday night. He had a great car here in this race last season, leading 67 laps from the pole before finishing 14th. In the April race at Richmond in 2012, Dale ended up 2nd. He’s a three-time winner at this race track and has a career average finish of 13.8 here, making it his 4th-best track on the circuit. The one thing I don’t like about Junior this weekend is that he’s pretty much locked into the Chase (barring a wreck or something) and probably won’t be pushing the car as hard as normal to get a good finish. In my book, this bumps the #88 down a few spots in the rankings.
13. Jamie McMurray – Starts 7th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
Juan Montoya isn’t the only Earnhardt-Ganassi driver that has been getting better and better since the summer started. In the last nine Sprint Cup races, Jamie McMurray has finished 16th or better in seven of them, although he’s only notched two top 10s during that span (2nd at Kentucky followed by a 7th at Daytona). This weekend the #1 Chevrolet looked decent in first practice, posting the 10th-best ten-lap average despite having just the 30th-fastest lap. In qualifying, however, McMurray was able to put his Chevrolet 7th on the grid, and you know how important track position can be here. All of that being said, however, putting Jamie Mac on your fantasy roster this weekend is extremely risky, and possibly even more risky than putting his teammate on there. In 21 career starts at Richmond, McMurray has just three top 10 finishes, with the most recent coming in 2009 while with Roush. The good news? He’s finished inside the top 15 in two of the last four events here. I think the #1 has the capability to surprise some people on Saturday night but chances are this team will end up with a mid-teens finish once again. Still, in some deeper leagues, it may be worth a shot taking McMurray. For what it’s worth, Jamie is running the Nationwide race this weekend (added track time), and as I’m typing this he has cracked the top 10.
14. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 43rd – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
I never thought I’d put Jimmie Johnson as a “High Risk” driver at a track that he’s won at three times, but here we are. There are just a lot of things to not like about the five-time champion this weekend. First off, Johnson has yet to get into this race car. His wife was giving birth on Friday and Jimmie was there with here while Regan Smith practiced and qualified the #48 machine. This is a good track for Smith and he was able to post the 11th-best lap in 1st practice and actually ended up qualifying around there as well. However, due to NASCAR’s rules, Johnson will have to start Saturday’s race from the back of the pack. I expect by about lap 50 that he will be cracking the top 20. Another thing that I don’t like about the #48 this weekend is that this team is in a slump, and it’s a major one for them. With his problems and subsequent 28th-place finish at Atlanta last Sunday, Johnson has now averaged a finish of 34.7 over the last three Sprint Cup races–not exactly the results you want out of a stud like him. I think there’s way too much value with other drivers this weekend to take a chance in picking Johnson on Saturday night, but he should be a good option in NASCAR.com’s Fantasy Live (assuming he’s credited with the 43rd-place starting spot). Five Time has finished 13th and 12th in the last two Richmond Cup races. The furthest back that he’s started here has been 30th (in 2011) and he ended up 8th that race.
15. Brian Vickers – Starts 20th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: right now I really only like Brian Vickers on the short tracks. As you may recall, he was in Denny Hamlin’s ride here last time around and qualified on the outside pole for the April race. He had a top 10 car for the first third of the race before really falling off, and then Brian got into the wall with about five laps to go and ended up finishing 35th. This weekend Vickers will start mid-pick but I think he has a better car than the one he showed in qualifying. During 1st practice the #55 Toyota was 4th on the ten-lap average chart and ranking there in Happy Hour as well. I think Vickers will be able to run top 15 on Saturday night but not much better. I have him as “High Risk” because his career average finish at Richmond is 25.5 over fifteen starts as well as the fact that this team is still searching for a crew chief. On a positive note, Vickers has finished inside the top 10 in three of his last four Sprint Cup starts.
A Few Words About Other Drivers:
Greg Biffle has disappointment written all over him this weekend. He qualified 9th but never made a long run in either practice session and has just one top 10 in the last thirteen Cup races here at Richmond. It’s not crazy to think that he could drop out of the top 10 in points on Saturday night and really shake up who gets in the Chase. David Ragan is the deep sleeper of the week. He ran 20th here back in April and had the 8th-best ten-lap average during 1st Practice on Friday before qualifying 23rd. It was just two years ago that Ragan finished 4th in both races here at Richmond while with Roush. Martin Truex, Jr. got a new cast for his wrist, and I’m still a little leery about that injury–even more so now that we’re at a short track. If he can get a solid finish on Saturday night I won’t have a problem picking him the rest of the year. He finished 17th here back in April and will start 11th. A top 15 is possible for the #56 team. Carl Edwards has been junk since they unloaded, but it seems like every time that has happened this season he has ended up surprising people on race day. Guess we’ll see if that happens again but I won’t be picking him. He also has nothing to race for considering he’s locked into the Chase. Finally, Aric Almirola is an intriguing option sitting there in 15th after qualifying. Back in April he finished 8th here, and although they never made a long run in practice this week, a teens finish out of the #43 wouldn’t surprise me one bit.
