Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Chicago – GEICO 400 (2013 Chase Race #1)

11. Kevin Harvick – Starts 4th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

Harvick is a two-time winner at Chicagoland Speedway and has actually had pretty consistent and good runs on the intermediate tri-oval tracks this season. It also doesn’t hurt that this team has finished 11th or better in three of the last six Sprint Cup races. Harvick hasn’t finished worse than 16th on this type of track since 2011 (check out this chart here) and that shouldn’t change on Sunday. He’s consistently been a top 10 threat on these tri-oval intermediates in 2013 and in half of his starts here at Chicago, Kevin has finished inside the top 5. Will that happen again on Sunday in the GEICO 400? I personally don’t think so but it’s not out of the question, as this team has shown to be able to adjust on the car throughout the race and come on strong in the end. Going into Sunday I think the #29 is a top 20 car but should be much better than that at the end of the 400 miles.

12. Brad Keselowski – Starts 4th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Any type of logic would tell you that Brad Keselowski isn’t going to be as good as advertised this weekend. This team just can’t seem to get any breaks whatsoever as of late, even when they’ve had good cars. However, I’m willing to look past that on Sunday because Penske has been great here at Chicagoland as of late. BK finished 5th here two years ago and found himself in victory lane last season en route to his championship win. On Friday, Penske swept the front row and Keselowski will start from 2nd. One thing you should know about BK is that when he qualifies up front, he usually has a really good car for the race. The Blue Deuce never really put down a super fast lap during the two practice sessions on Saturday but Brad was 5th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour and that’s something I really like to see because I can guarantee we’re going to see a lot of green flag runs on Sunday. One thing worth noting is that on this intermediate tri-oval track type, the #2 team has finished 36th, 33rd, and 35th in the last three events (Charlotte, Kentucky, and Atlanta). I think they break out of their little slump this weekend even though they didn’t make the Chase. Heck, that might even give them motivation to run even better in preparation for the 2014 season.

13. Greg Biffle – Starts 4th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**

I still don’t trust Greg Biffle, plain and simple. Yeah, he qualified 7th for Sunday’s GEICO 400, but really that doesn’t mean much to me. This #16 team has been so disappointing on the intermediate tri-oval tracks this season that it’s just becoming frustrating for fantasy owners. The Biff ended up 4th at Texas earlier this year but all of his finishes on this type of track since haven’t been better than 15th, although that result came earlier this month at Atlanta. At Chicagoland specifically, Biffle has just one top 10 finish in ten career starts, and that came back in 2008. For whatever reason, Roush-Fenway Racing just hasn’t found much success at this venue despite their usual strength on this track type. The #16 was middle-of-the-road in terms of speed in Practice #2 before posting the 5th-fastest lap in Happy Hour. However, Biffle never made a long run during that final practice session and only ran 36 laps, which makes me believe that they don’t have that great of a long run car. I’d consider the #16 “fools gold” this weekend and even this ranking might be a little too high for this team.

14. Brian Vickers – Starts 4th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

Here’s a fun fact: one driver in the Sprint Cup series has at least six attempted starts and a lowest career finish of 14th at Chicago, and unless you’re a major Brian Vickers fan I’m going to guess that he wasn’t the first person to come to mind. You could say that this is one of his better tracks, and the career average finish of 9.5 doesn’t lie. Only two other drivers (Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson) have a better average result here at Chicagoland than Vickers. Now for the concerns. This #55 team is still working with a new crew chief, and the chemistry between the team could cause problems for a while. However, Vickers has had top 10s in three of his last five Sprint Cup starts, and that includes his win at New Hampshire and his 10th-place run at Atlanta. He got off on the wrong foot Friday by qualifying 25th, but really the entire Michael Waltrip Racing organization was off during qualifying. By the end of Happy Hour, Brian was really happy with his car on the long runs, and that’s what’s going to matter come Sunday. He had the 3rd-best ten-lap average during that final practice and should challenge for at least a mid-teens finish by the end of the 400 miles on Sunday. I’d consider Vickers a great option in NASCAR.com’s Fantasy Live considering his price.

15. Juan Monotya – Starts 4th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

As far as sleepers go, Montoya probably should have been on a lot of people’s radars even before his qualifying effort on Friday (the #42 Chevrolet will start Sunday’s GEICO 400 in 3rd). In six career starts here at Chicago, JPM has finished between 10th and 16th in four of them and his other three starts ended with him in 18th and 23rd. Momentum-wise, Montoya is the second-hottest driver over the last five Sprint Cup races, average 36 points per race over that span, behind only Joey Logano’s 38 points per (yeah, I couldn’t believe it either). On the intermediate tri-ovals in 2013, JPM most recently finished 7th at Atlanta but really that’s the only good finish in a field of mediocrity. On Saturday, he was inside the top 5 during both practice sessions but the speed really fell out of this car on the long run. I think the #42 could contend for a top 10 again this weekend if the team can figure that problem out, but as usual there’s a high level of risk in picking Montoya, especially on an oval. I’m expecting that once the green flag waves on Sunday that JPM falls back from his high starting spot and settles in around 15th or so. Where he will finish depends on what the team does to the car.

16. Carl Edwards – Starts 8th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**

Coming into this season, one driver that was considered a great pick on nearly every intermediate track was Carl Edwards. With the way this season has been unfolding, however, that might be coming into question. With his win last weekend at Richmond, Edwards now has two victories in 2013 after his disappointing 2012 campaign. However, those wins came on a couple of short, flat tracks (Phoenix was the other), and really the #99 team has barely even contended on the bigger venues. We’ve raced on six intermediate tri-oval race tracks this season, and Edwards has just two top 10 finishes–back at Vegas and Texas in March and April. Looking at his record here at Chicagoland specifically, Carl has three top 5 finishes in eight career starts and has averaged a finish right around 16.6. The #99 Ford wasn’t anything special during the practices on Saturday (16th-fastest in both sessions) but they did make a 10+ lap race run near the end of Happy Hour, which is something that this team usually only does when they have something to work with that weekend. This season it’s been almost impossible to get a good grip on what kind of car this team has during practice, and when they’ve looked fast they’ve raced bad, and when they’ve looked slow they’ve raced well. My gut tells me that the #99 will be a good pick on Sunday but it could really go either way. It’s worth noting that Wendy Venturini reported that there could be possible engine problems with this car, so keep an eye out for any news about that. Personally, I don’t like to be worried about that as a fantasy owner, so I’d consider Edwards “High Risk” this weekend. If you have another solid option to replace him, I would.

A Few Words About Other Drivers:

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. can sure as hell put down one fast lap at Chicagoland Speedway, but will he have a car that can maintain that speed on the long runs? The #17 Ford had the best ten-lap average in Practice #2 on Saturday, and Ricky has finished in the teens in all but one of the intermediate tri-oval races this season. He qualified top 5 on Friday and could sneak away with another top 10 finish this weekend (yeah I said it). Denny Hamlin is junk once again so expect his streak of finishes without a top 15 to climb to thirteen on Sunday (yes, it’s been twelve-straight Cup races since Hamlin has finished better than 18th). Ryan Newman has five top 10s in the last six Chicago races but you can file him under “There Are Many Other (and Better) Options” this weekend. He does have two straight top 5 finishes now, though, and has finished inside the top 15 in all but one of the intermediate tri-oval races this season. If you want an off-sequence pick on Sunday, go with Newman.  Paul Menard qualified 11th and was right around that spot during the practice sessions on Saturday as well. The #27 could end up top 15 when it’s all said and done on Sunday, and it’s worth noting that he has three straight finishes of 20th or better here at Chicagoland, including a 15th-place run last season. A.J. Allmendinger qualified 13th on Friday and has ended up 15th or better in his last three starts in this #47 car (Watkins Glen, Atlanta, and Richmond). That being said, I still don’t trust this team/organization on intermediate tracks and they were terrible during the practice sessions on Saturday. Jamie McMurray would have been a much better sleeper pick this weekend if it wasn’t for his 27th-place qualifying effort on Friday. It doesn’t mean you should avoid him by any means, it’s just an added bonus with guys like this. Jamie Mac has been pretty good on these intermediate tri-ovals in 2013 as a matter of fact (check out this chart) and was 10th in 2nd Practice here on Saturday. He never put up a good ten-lap average, though, so that takes my confidence down on him yet another notch.