Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Dover 2 – AAA 400 (2013 Chase Race #3)

Can Kenseth Be Stopped?

Dover International Speedway–“The Monster Mile”–is just a small, concrete race track but the Sprint Cup cars get going pretty fast around this 1-mile oval. Engines have been known to blow here in the past but the good news is that it shouldn’t be too hot on Sunday for the AAA 400. In fact, race conditions should be similar to how they were during Happy Hour on Saturday–which is the practice I will be focusing on the most. There was one qualifying practice on Friday before qualifying itself, where Dale Earnhardt, Jr. won the pole for Sunday’s race. The full starting lineup can be found by clicking here. Two practice sessions were then held on Saturday, and those speeds can be found here: Practice #2 — Happy Hour. For our in-depth notes of each session, click here: Practice #2 — Happy Hour.

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Final Top 15 Ranking For The AAA 400:
*Chase drivers marked in red*

11. Brian Vickers – Starts 22nd – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Vickers didn’t race here last season, but I’m cautiously optimistic that that won’t matter on Sunday. He showed last week that practice and track position really aren’t all that important (at Loudon nonetheless!) and he’ll have quite a few cars to pass this Sunday as well when the green flag drops, as the #55 ended up just 22nd in qualifying on Friday. Vickers ran 5th here in the spring 2011 race while with Red Bull Racing and followed that up with a decent 14th-place run in the fall. In this year’s spring Dover race, Mark Martin piloted the #55 Toyota to a solid 9th-place finish, and he ended up 14th and 3rd here in the two races last season. My main concern with Vickers this week is that him and his new crew chief might not be on the same page, but they’ve been working together for awhile now so that should be somewhat improved. What I do know is that this car is competitive–at least that’s what the driver said in Happy Hour–and I think Vickers provides an excellent “non-Chase” fantasy pick this weekend (as well as a solid option in NASCAR.com’s Fantasy Live due to his starting position). The #55 Toyota was just 21st on the ten-lap average chart in Happy Hour but they made that run at the end of the session and could’ve been on old tires. Vickers was 6th on the overall speed chart.

12. Joey Logano – Starts 11th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Last week I said I was still clinging to the Joey Logano bandwagon, but now it’s more like I’m hanging on by just a thread. The #22 team had a decent day at Loudon last week, finishing 14th, but that’s not the kind of result fantasy owners want out of a Chase team. That makes it three races in a row that Logano has finished outside of the top 10, his second-longest such streak this season (he went the first four races of 2013 with a best finish of 12th). All of that being said, there’s still hope for Joey this weekend at Dover. He has just one top 5 finish at The Monster Mile in nine career starts but Logano is currently on a three-race streak of top 10s at this venue. He hasn’t had any dominating efforts here at Dover–just one race with a driver rating above 100.0–but you can’t argue with the results. Will he be able to extend the top 10 streak on Sunday? Right now I’m saying no, but you can’t look past at how fast his teammate, Brad Keselowski, is, and you know those two teams will help each other. For all we know, Logano was just experimenting with stuff in practice. He was 12th and 10th on the speed charts Saturday and ended up 18th when it came to ten-lap average, although that run came a little late in the session and he might have been on old tires. A top 10 is possible out of Logano on Sunday, and if it’s worth anything to you he’s running the Nationwide race today (added track time) and won the pole for that event.

13. Kevin Harvick – Starts 12th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**

Another drive who’s running the Nationwide race this weekend is Kevin Harvick, who probably isn’t on many people’s immediate list of contenders when the series stops at The Monster Mile, but he’s shown lately that he can be a solid, off-sequence fantasy pick here. “Happy” finished 8th here in the June race and currently has four top 10 finishes over the last five races at this track. The lone exception? His 13th-place run in this race one year ago. What’s even better is that Harvick hasn’t finished worse than 17th at Dover since the spring of 2008, and he has just one finish outside of the top 15 over that 10-race span. The #29 was kind of disappointing last weekend at Loudon, but this team still has four finishes of 11th or better over the last six Sprint Cup races, and for the last month and a half they have posted a single-digit result every other week (Michigan, Atlanta, Chicago). If that trend holds true on Sunday you’re looking at another good day from Kevin Harvick at The Monster Mile on Sunday. If you’re making a more-informed decision based on practice results, though, you might be disappointed a little bit if you take the #29. Harvick was 11th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour and just 16th-quick on the speed chart. This team made big gains from Practice #2, though, where they ranked 24th, almost as low as Danica Patrick. I expect Harvick to finish right around where he starts on Sunday.

14. Carl Edwards – Starts 4th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: I really don’t know what to expect**

I mentioned a couple of weeks ago (before the Richmond race) that Carl Edwards is suddenly much better on the shorter tracks than he is on the intermediate tracks. While it may have been surprising for some to see him run so well at Phoenix and Richmond this season, Cousin Carl running near the front here at Dover shouldn’t catch anyone off guard. Statistically this is Edwards’ 4th-best track on the circuit; in 18 career starts at Dover, Carl has averaged a finish of 8.6 with twelve top 10s and one victory, which came back in 2007. He finished a disappointing 14th here back in June. While the Chase is looking like it’s going to be a 3-team fight, Edwards could sneak in the conversation if bad luck were to hit Kenseth, Johnson, and Kyle Busch. Five of the last seven races at The Monster Mile have ended with Carl Edwards posting a single-digit finish but I really don’t know what to expect out of him come Sunday. Perhaps the most frustrating thing with this team–especially as of late–is their inability to be consistently fast during qualifying, as well as the fact that it’s almost impossible to analyze Carl’s practice data. It looks like they figured out the qualifying dilemma–at least this week–as Edwards will start from the 4th position in Sunday’s AAA 400. However, the #99 Ford looked like a mid-teens car in practice and this team never made a long run (big surprise). Every week I’m high on Edwards he disappoints, and every week I have him ranked low, he does awesome. I know it’s not scientific but it’s happened all year. I’d recommend seeing if Edwards’ crew chief says anything in the crew chief notes released Sunday morning. He has good track position to start the race, so that has to be worth something.

15. Greg Biffle – Starts 19th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

The Biff gets this final ranking because of his “where did he come” performance last weekend at Loudon. Dover itself has been a good racetrack for Roush-Fenway Racing, but it seems as though past performance doesn’t really mean much for the Roushkateers this season. I didn’t have Greg Biffle in the top 10–let alone the top 5–last weekend at Loudon, and we all know what happened there. Also, in both of Edwards’ wins this season, he wasn’t even on my radar. Happenings like that make it extremely difficult to rank these drivers, so most of the times I find it better to avoid them. Now, with all of that being said, I can’t blame you for taking a chance on The Biff this Sunday. In 22 career starts at The Monster Mile, Greg owns an average finish of 12.5 (good enough for 5th-best among active drivers) along with two victories and ten top 10s. Now for the bad news: Biffle hasn’t posted a finish better than 11th here since 2010. He’s been a mid-teens driver for most of that span, and this team never made a long run in either practice session on Saturday. Still, Biffle had the 8th-fastest lap in Happy Hour after posting the 15th-fastest lap in 2nd Practice. As far as momentum goes, this #16 team hasn’t had a result worse than 16th since Indianapolis back in July, and they have to be walking around with a little more confidence after that great run last weekend at New Hampshire.

A Few Words About Other Drivers:

This may be Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.‘s best track on the circuit at this point in his young Cup career. In his first start here last season, Stenhouse posted a solid 12th-place finish, and back in June he ended up 13th. He’ll roll off the grid in 15th to start Sunday’s AAA 400 and there’s no doubt in my mind that the #17 will be in the teens all day, if they don’t sneak up into the top 10. Stenhouse had the 5th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour. If you’re looking for a great sleeper option, look no further than last week’s sleeper Jamie McMurray. I don’t know what this team has found lately but they’re putting out fast cars almost every week. Check out what I tweeted (click here) about Jamie Mac earlier this week. The #1 Chevrolet had the 6th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour and will start from 7th in the AAA 400. A top 10 isn’t out of the question for McMurray, although he hasn’t finished inside the top 10 at Dover since 2008. All streaks have to end some time. Aric Almirola has the opportunity to surprise some people on Sunday as well. He qualified 5th on Friday and followed that up with the 8th-best ten-lap average during Happy Hour. He ended up 6th and 19th in the two races at Dover last season and was 18th here last spring. Speaking of the spring race, Juan Montoya almost won that event and will start 13th in Sunday’s AAA 400 (he started 14th in the spring). I don’t see him repeating that feat this weekend, but then again he wasn’t even on my radar the last time we were here. The #42 Chevrolet had the 13th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour. Dover is one of A.J. Allmendinger‘s best tracks, as he’s finished 16th or better in five of the last six races here. In the race where he didn’t I thought A.J. had a car capable of running top 5 before he blew an engine. As usual, there’s concern with the #47 team and equipment, but Allmendinger has shown that he can make up for that on talent. He’ll start 17th and could run top 15 despite the middle-of-the-road practice results on Saturday. When it comes to Yahoo!, you should go with Stenhouse for maximum points, but due to it being an allocation league, Allmendinger is the smarter pick. Denny Hamlin said this week that he’s giving his best cars to his teammates, and if you’re still holding on to hope that he’s going to turn this season around, I can’t help you. I’ve been saying to avoid the #11 like the plague for at least the last two months. Mark Martin was viewed as somewhat of an “off-sequence” pick this week by some people but he’s junk. It’s going to take a lot for the #14 to just finish top 15. Finally, we have Ryan Newman, who qualified 3rd for Sunday’s AAA 400. Fools gold–don’t fall for his tricks. If you have him in Yahoo!, take your qualifying bonus points and run! “The Rocketman” has started 8th or better in each of the last three Dover races but hasn’t finished better than 15th in any of them. He hasn’t posted a top 10 at The Monster Mile since 2010 and that won’t change on Sunday. The #39 was 15th on the ten-lap average chart in Happy Hour.