Kansas Hollywood Casino 400 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1. Jimmie Johnson – You can’t go wrong if you pick Jimmie Johnson to win the Kansas Hollywood Casino 400. I’m predicting he’ll have an awesome car on Sunday. Even if Johnson has problems in the race a good finish should be expected. Last year he backed the 48 car into the wall and probably shrunk it 6″ inches and he still finished 9th. Before that incident in the race Johnson had a phenomenal car that was capable of winning. Prior to his accident he led 44 laps and probably had about a 3rd place average running position. Even with his wreck he still earned the 6th best driver rating. This April Johnson had a competitive incident free race. He started mid pack but was able to move up through the field with relative ease. In the race he finished 3rd, earned the 3rd best driver rating and led 9 laps. He’ll be using that very chassis once again in the Hollywood Casino 400. He also used this chassis at Michigan in August and had a good performance before his engine failed. This season on similar tracks Johnson has been good in the races where he’s avoided problems. In 2013 minus the races where he had issues (Charlotte and Atlanta) he has a 5.8 average finish, 5.6 average running position and has finished in the top ten every race. Chicagoland is similar in shape and recently at that venue he finished 5th. On Sunday Johnson will start in 3rd. During testing for Kansas on Thursday it’s said that Jimmie Johnson had the best car because he had the best 10 lap average speed. His fast speeds from the test have carried on over today. In Happy Hour his ten lap average speed ranked as the 2nd best. Also it should be noted that his lap times were pretty consistent. In Friday’s practice session Johnson spun but it’s nothing to hit the panic button about.

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2. Kevin Harvick – Kevin Harvick will start on the pole for the Kansas Hollywood Casino 400. This is his first pole in the top series since 2006.  He’s driving a brand new chassis this week so that could be a big factor in his outlier qualifying effort. If you’re looking for a safe pick for Kansas in an allocation league and you’ve used up your main fantasy studs consider Harvick. This season on 1.5 mile tracks he’s just one of two drivers who have finished in the top fifteen every race. On them this season he has 1 win, an 8.1 average finish and a 9.7 average running position. Earlier this year at Kansas Harvick drove a good clean race. He finished 12th but in my opinion his car was better than that. What happened is that late in the event he elected to go for four tires and almost everybody else did two. In the race he earned the 6th best driver rating and had an 8th place average running position. Last fall at Kansas he finished 11th but it’s important to note he had a 16th place average running position and earned the 18th best driver rating. In practice #2 Kevin Harvick had the best 10 lap average. In Happy Hour he had the 8th best. This race could turn into a high attrition event and I like Kevin Harvick in races that play out that way. He’s a driver who does a good job at avoiding trouble on the track.

Recommended Reading: Happy Hour Practice Notes, Practice #2 Notes, Happy Hour Speeds, Practice #2 Speeds, Starting Lineup, Big Board 10 Lap Average Speed Chart, PROS Rankings, Recap Review

3. Matt Kenseth – Matt Kenseth is a driver you you can confidently make your fantasy pick at Kansas for the Hollywood Casino 400. There’s no rolling the dice with him because he’s virtually the sure thing. On the new reconfigured surface at Kansas he’s 2 for 2. In April Matt Kenseth had a dominant performance. He started on the pole, led 163 laps (61% percent of the race), had a third place average running position and earned a near perfect 146.0 driver rating. In the race he never really had a serious challenger. The only laps he didn’t lead were due to others using pit strategy. Last fall Kenseth earned his final victory for Roush Fenway Racing. In that race he had a 6th place average running position, led 78 laps and earned the best driver rating by a wide margin of 25.4. The main reason you should feel confident about picking Kenseth is how strong he’s been on 1.5 mile tracks this season. On these venues in 2013 he’s scored the most points, won four races, led the most laps, has the best driver rating and an impressive 6.1 average finish. On Sunday Kenseth will start in 6th. Matt Kenseth has not been a fan of the new tire this weekend. He’s typically pessimistic so I wouldn’t overact about. In Happy Hour his ten lap average ranked as the 7th best.