Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Charlotte 2 – Bank of America 500 (2013 Chase Race #5)
Three’s A Crowd, Mr. Pole Sitter
We have our last scheduled night race of the 2013 season coming up on Saturday night with the Bank of America 500 at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Qualifying was on Friday and Jeff Gordon will lead the field to the green alongside last week’s winner Kevin Harvick. The full starting lineup for Saturday night’s race can be found by clicking here. There was a practice on Friday but I see no reason to even look at those speeds because all cars were in qualifying trim. Two practice sessions were then held on Saturday, and those results can be found here: Practice #2 — Happy Hour. I consider the final practice speeds to be a little more important between the two. As usual, Ryan posted his in-depth notes for each practice, and those can be found here: Practice #2 — Happy Hour.
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Final Top 15 Ranking For The Bank of America 500:
*Chase drivers marked in red*
1. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 4th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Chad Knaus may not be completely happy with this #48 Chevrolet, but when this team ends practice ten minutes early, you know they have a damn good car. It also doesn’t hurt that Jimmie Johnson has won six times at this track, although the most recent visit to victory lane was during the 2009 season. This team really struggled in this year’s Coca-Cola 600 but any problems that they had back then seem to have gone away because there’s no reason to think the #48 won’t challenge for the win on Saturday night. Johnson ended up 6th on the ten-lap average chart during Happy Hour while posting the 8th-best single lap, and in Practice #2 he was 10th-fastest with the best ten-lap average. He used to be an absolute lock in fantasy when the series stopped at this race track, and although that isn’t necessarily true right now, I wouldn’t bet against this team when they have to opportunity to take the points lead with five races to go. The #48 has finished 6th or better in five of the eight races on tri-oval intermediate tracks in 2013.
2. Kevin Harvick – Starts 2nd – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
What’s not to like about Kevin Harvick this weekend? He’s coming off of a dominant win at Kansas one week ago and is the most recent winner at this race track as well. This team has also finished 6th or better in three of the four 2013 Chase races and 11th or better in five of the last six Cup races overall. Harvick is now within striking distance of joining Matt Kenseth and Jimmie Johnson in the championship hunt, and with Talladega coming up (as well as the #20’s struggles at Kansas) I may have jumped the gun a little bit by saying this is a two-man Chase a couple weeks ago–although I’m still sticking to that statement. The #48 and the #20 will be continue to get a whole lot of focus until one of them makes a major mistake, but if you want a solid pick other than those two, Kevin Harvick is your guy. Six of the last seven Charlotte races have ended with Harvick finishing 11th or better (including two wins) and there’s no reason to think that he won’t make it seven of the last eight on Saturday night. The #29 Chevrolet ranked 2nd on the speed chart in Happy Hour, and although his ten-lap average wasn’t out-of-this-world (15th-best) it wasn’t ran at the beginning of practice like everyone else’s so that could explain that. “Happy” was 5th in ten-lap average during Practice #2 on Friday. Harvick hasn’t finished worse than 13th on this track type (intermediate tri-oval) in 2013 and the #29 team brought the exact same chassis to Charlotte this weekend that than ran in Kansas one week ago.
3. Kurt Busch – Starts 10th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
The elder Busch brother got a little bump in my mind last weekend after he almost won in a backup car. Where the hell did that come from? I’ve said all season long that the #78 is a safer pick when the series is at an intermediate track, and when he has the speed in practice, Kurt is usually a good bet to challenge for a top 5. In this year’s Coca-Cola 600, he led 8 laps and ended up finishing 3rd after starting 2nd. He qualified 10th on Friday for the Bank of America 500 but I don’t think Busch will have a hard time passing people. The #78 was quickest in Happy Hour, both in terms of one fast lap and ten-lap average. In Practice #2, Kurt was 2nd-fastest behind brother Kyle and really lagged in the ten-lap average department, although that could have been due to the fact that he ran that late in the session. Kurt has finished 6th or better in each of the last four races on intermediate tri-oval tracks in 2013 and unless he gets caught up in a wreck Saturday night, he should make that five in a row. The only reason I consider the #78 a “Medium Risk” is because it’s Kurt Busch.
4. Jeff Gordon – Starts 1st – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Jeff Gordon is a five-time winner here at Charlotte but he hasn’t really shown it as of late, at least when it comes to his finishes. The #24 Chevrolet wound up finishing 35th in this year’s Coca-Cola 600, but it should be noted that they were running inside the top 5 before they got caught on pit road during a caution flag and eventually caught up in an accident. Gordon was 7th and 18th in the two races here last season, and although that isn’t overly impressive, what this team continues to do on a weekly basis is: with his 3rd-place finish at Kansas last Sunday, Gordon now has six finishes of 7th or better in the last seven Sprint Cup races, and I’d say he has a pretty good shot at making that seven of eight on Saturday night. Although the driver wasn’t too happy with the car when final practice was over on Friday, I put a decently high value on momentum and this team has the most right now. The #24 Chevrolet was 10th-fastest in Happy Hour with the 11th-best ten-lap average. On a more positive note, however, Gordon laid down the 3rd-fastest lap in Practice #2. This team has finished 8th or better in each of the last four races on this track type in 2013. In 41 career starts at this track he has finished inside the top 10 more often than not (21 times).
5. Kyle Busch – Starts 9th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
If Kansas is every taken out of the Chase, that will be like music to Kyle Busch’s ears. It’s almost unbelievable just how bad he is at that race track, at least in the Sprint Cup Series. I’m telling you that so your confidence in the #18 isn’t shot. Rowdy has never won here at Charlotte, but it’s going to happen soon because he’s damn good here. In five of the last seven points-paying races here, Busch has ended up inside the top 5, and in ten of the last twelve he has ended up 8th or better. Yeah, he’s that good/consistent. Speed-wise the #18 Toyota is looking pretty good this weekend. Kyle went out and qualified 9th on Friday, which is actually better than what he normally does here. In Practice #2 on Saturday, the #18 ended up on top of the speed chart and had the 2nd-best ten-lap average. They lost some ground in Happy Hour but Busch was still able to post the 5th-best lap and 9th-best ten-lap average. Rowdy has ended up 1st or 2nd in two of the last three tri-oval intermediate races and there’s no doubt in my mind that he will be a challenger for a top 5 come Sunday, if not his first visit to victory lane at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
6. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 6th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
The #88 Chevrolet was a solid top 15 car here back in May before the engine blew, and as long as the powerplant underneath the hood holds strong on Saturday night, I’m expecting a good run once again out of Junior in the Bank of America 500. This team have had solid race cars every single week in this year’s Chase and have only disappointed fantasy owners once (blown engine at Chicago). Also, in six of the last seven Cup races, Earnhardt has finished 13th or better. He usually falls apart after starting the season strong so this has to be a good sign for Junior fans, both right now and for next year. Due to his concussion last season, Dale didn’t race in this event, but he did end up 6th in the 2012 Coca-Cola 600 after ending up 7th in the 2011 event. Statistically he has been a better pick in the spring race at Charlotte but Junior should still be a solid choice come Saturday night. He had the 3rd-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour and ranked 6th on that chart in Practice #2, although he could never really lay down one blazing fast lap (not a huge deal). For what it’s worth, Earnhardt is making his 500th Sprint Cup start on Saturday night and drivers, for whatever reason, tend to perform well on milestones like that. It’s also his birthday this week, which is another time that drivers seem to bump their performance up a notch. Don’t ask me why, it just always seems to happen. Matt Kenseth won at Loudon a few weeks ago and that was his 500th start. Also, when Junior starts near the front, good things happen. I’m expecting a solid top 10 finish out of the #88 Saturday night, and maybe a top 5 with a little luck. Another stat I found interesting was that in 6 of the last 11 races on tri-oval intermediate tracks, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. has finished 7th or 8th.
7. Matt Kenseth – Starts 20th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Surprisingly, Matt Kenseth is struggling a little bit this weekend. For a little bit there I was thinking that it was impossible. The #20 Toyota ranked 23rd on the speed chart in Happy Hour with the 13th-best ten-lap average, although you have to wonder whether the team was just trying something new because his teammates had no trouble finding speed. Kenseth was a lot better in Practice #2 (8th-fastest) where he worked on getting the balance of the car to his liking. This team has some spots to overcome when the green flag waves on Saturday night, too, as they’ll start mid-pack–something that hasn’t happened in a while. The last time Kenseth qualified worse than 12th was at Pocono back in early August. Another thing I’m not overly impressed with (and a reason I have the #20 under the “Medium Risk” category) is that the finishes haven’t come for Kenseth at Charlotte as of late. They’ve been pretty good, but not as great as we’ve come to expect. He ended up 15th in this year’s Coca-Cola 600–although to be fair he led 113 laps and just had bad luck–and was 10th and 14th in the two races here in 2012. This team slipped up at Kansas last weekend and it looks like they have the potential to possibly do that again come Sunday night. I have no doubt that Kenseth will be able to get a top 10 finish, though.
8. Greg Biffle – Starts 3rd – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
If there’s one thing that defines this team, it’s resilience. The #16 Ford was absolute junk on Saturday last weekend at Kansas but the team worked on it the entire race and came home with a top 15 finish. There were about 25 other drivers I liked more than Biffle to finish in the top 15 that race. That makes it ten straight Cup races in which The Biff has finished 16th or better and I’d bet money that he makes it eleven in a row come Saturday night, specifically because Charlotte has been a pretty good track for this driver, especially as of late. Greg finished 4th in both races at CMS last season, and although this team struggled mightily here back in May–Biffle started 7th but quickly fell back before finishing 31st–they did lead a total of 393 laps in the four races here during the 2011 and 2012 seasons. On the intermediate tri-ovals in 2013, the #16 has been pretty much a top 15 car every race, and that’s what I expect on Saturday night as well–and maybe a little more. The Biff was 22nd-quickest on the speed chart in Happy Hour but had the 8th-best ten-lap average, which is something we normally don’t see out of these Roush-Fenway Fords. We’ve come to expect more out of The Biff on this type of track over the years but he can be relied upon for to get a decent finish on Saturday night (translation: risk-wise, there’s not much there with the #16). I may be a little too optimistic but I think Greg can get his 9th top 10 at Charlotte this weekend.
9. Kasey Kahne – Starts 5th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Kahne is a four-time winner at Charlotte Motor Speedway, probably should have won here back in May, and has finished 8th or better in each of his last four starts at this track. Sounds pretty good, huh? I agree, but I can’t get over the fact that this team has been absolutely mediocre for the last two months. Kahne started and finished 15th last Sunday at Kansas, making it seven Cup races in a row without a top 10 for this #5 team. The good thing, however, is that four of the last five have been top 15 results, so it’s not like he’s completely tanking. Still, you expect more out of a guy like Kasey. So, what are we looking at this weekend at Charlotte? The #5 Chevrolet was 13th-fastest in Happy Hour and had the 14th-best ten-lap average after winding up 14th-best in Practice #2. When you look at his past record here and take into account that he starts 5th on Saturday night, I can’t blame you for picking Kahne, but personally I’m still being cautious when it comes to the #5. I’ve been burned way too many times by this driver. Charlotte has been great for Hendrick Motorsports in general so that gives me a little boost in my confidence regarding Kasey Kahne this weekend, although there is still some risk there–as usual.
10. Ryan Newman – Starts 7th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
You never really know what you’ll have with Ryan Newman on intermediate tracks, so there’s some risk in picking him on Saturday night. However, what I like is that he’s posted top 15 finishes in seven of the last eight races on intermediate tri-oval tracks. Also, the #39 wasn’t terrible in practice on Saturday. In Happy Hour, Newman was 11th on the overall speed chart and had the 2nd-best ten-lap average. He wasn’t quite as quick in Practice #2 but I’m not overly concerned with that because this is a night race and Happy Hour was ran later in the day on Saturday. Another positive is that “The Rocketman” ended up 6th in this year’s Coca-Cola 600 and has finished 14th or better in three of the last four races at Charlotte. If you’re looking for a somewhat “out of the box” pick this weekend, go with Ryan Newman–just don’t expect much more than a top 10 result. This team has four top 10s in the last six Sprint Cup races and could make it five of the last seven on Saturday night. Starting 7th won’t hurt Newman, either.
11. Martin Truex, Jr. – Starts 17th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Truex’s crew chief, Chad Johnston, said during Happy Hour that the lap times the #56 Toyota was running were better than anyone else’s. I beg to differ, but still the car is fast and Martin has a good shot at getting a top 10 come Saturday night. Truex ranked just 12th on the speed chart in Happy Hour but had a top 5 ten-lap average, which I like. He was also really good in Practice #2 with those two statistics (6th and 3rd, respectively). The MWR driver finished 10th in this event one year ago and followed that up with a solid 9th-place effort in this season’s Coca-Cola 600 after starting 17th, exactly where Truex will start in the Bank of America 500. The only thing that puts a small amount of doubt in my mind this weekend is that this team hasn’t been overly competitive in the last month of Sprint Cup action. Still, Martin is a great intermediate track driver and, up until the last two, his record on the intermediate tri-ovals in 2013 was very impressive (single-digit finishes in every race). This track is good overall for Michael Waltrip Racing and if this #56 team can adjust on the car all night and keep up with the track, they could possibly end up challenging for a top 5. I’m going to be more conservative and say Truex just challenges for a top 10.
12. Joey Logano – Starts 12th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Here’s a fun fact: Joey Logano has a better career average finish at Charlotte Motor Speedway than any other active driver in the Sprint Cup series. Last week at Kansas he showed once again that he’s one of the best drivers on intermediates right now and there’s no reason to think that he shouldn’t be a solid top 10 pick on Saturday night. Eight of Logano’s nine career starts at this track have ended with him inside the top 12, and although he’s never really had a dominating effort here–driver average-wise–he gets the results and that’s all that fantasy owners need. Joey has led just 3 laps in his career here at Charlotte but that could change this weekend if the team gets lucky with strategy. It’s unfortunate that this team suffered engine failure at Chicago to kick of the Chase because they could be right in the thick of the championship hunt right now. Generally qualifying is a good sign as to what kind of car Logano really has. When he’s really fast off of the truck, he usually has a damn good car. The #22 ended up 12th after qualifying on Friday, which isn’t terrible but not as good as I expected. It’s worth noting that he started 31st here in May and ended up finishing 5th, but that race also had 100 more miles.
13. Brad Keselowski – Starts 23rd – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Perhaps the most frustrating thing with Brad Keselowski right now is that they are almost trying too hard, and fantasy owners are getting the raw end of that deal. He led 52 laps at Kansas last weekend but still ended up 17th, his seventh finish outside the top 10 in the last eight Sprint Cup races. The positive thing, however, is that this team is bringing really fast race cars to the track almost every week, and eventually the finishes will come with that. Will Keselowski finally put together a full race this Saturday night at Charlotte? Once again the Blue Deuce looked solid in practice this weekend, ending up 3rd-fastest in Happy Hour with the 10th-best ten-lap average. The team had very similar results in Practice #2. BK has a career average finish of 18.3 at this track and had a mid-teens car here back in May before his wreck with Danica. In this race last season, Keselowski arguably had the best car (he led 139 laps) but ended up finishing 11th after running out of fuel late. How much of that performance can be attributed to “The Chase Effect,” though? Brad has only one top 10 in eight career starts at Charlotte and that was in the 2012 Coca-Cola 600. Still, it’s hard to look past how good the Penske Fords have been on these intermediate tracks in 2013, although I wish Keselowski would have qualified better (and Logano for that matter).
14. Clint Bowyer – Starts 14th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
This team still isn’t running as well as they can so I’m being a little cautious with my ranking of Clint Bowyer this weekend. Statistically, this is a decent track for the Michael Waltrip Racing driver. He has one victory–in this event last season, actually–but just five top 10s and, even worse, just two top 5s, in 15 career starts. In Happy Hour the #15 Toyota ranked 4th-fastest on the speed chart and a had a pretty good ten-lap average, ending up 7th among those drivers. Bowyer was a little slower in Practice #2 but that doesn’t really concern me because Happy Hour speeds are more important this weekend. He has finished inside the top 15 in four of the last five points-paying races at Charlotte, and I have no doubt that that will happen again on Sunday. However, I want more than a top 15 out of a Chaser, especially with just six races remaining in the season. I also can’t get over the fact that this team hasn’t been running to potential since the whole thing at Richmond. One of these weeks they’ll put together a great run and I’ll forget about that, but until then I’m still going to associate Bowyer with a little bit of risk. Practice data tells me he’s a top 10 car going into Saturday night, but with racing just having a fast car won’t get the finish.
15. Carl Edwards – Starts 15th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Carl Edwards is a really solid pick here at Charlotte Motor Speedway, and he could probably be ranked higher than this, but I’m just not seeing a whole bunch of speed (at least on long runs) out of the #99 Ford this weekend and he starts mid-pack. Carl was 7th on the speed chart in Happy Hour after posting the 9th-best lap in Practice #2. He never made a ten-lap run, as usual, so whether or not that speed will maintain as we go through a green flag run is kind of up in the air. On a positive note, Edwards ended up 11th here in the Coca-Cola 600 back in May and hasn’t finished worse than 16th in a points-paying race at this track since the 2009 season. I wouldn’t expect that to change on Saturday night. Carl Edwards will finish between 7th and 15th in this year’s Bank of America 500, and I’m betting that it’s going to be more toward the latter. However, I’m usually wrong when it comes to predicting the kind of race the #99 team will have–at least this year.
