AAA Texas 500 Fantasy NASCAR Top Tier Elite Picks
Matt Kenseth – It will be hard to go wrong if you pick Matt Kenseth to win the AAA Texas 500. This is a venue that he excels on. He’s won twice and has a 8.5 average finish. He’s finished in the top five 55% percent of the time and in the top ten 68% percent of the time. Since fall 2005 he has thirteen top ten finishes and has only had a result worse than 12th once. This spring at Texas he had top five potential. He started in 20th and by lap 40 he was in the top ten. Then over the next 200 laps I would estimate his average running position was 5th. In the race with about 50 laps left he was a victim of a caution during the pit cycle. That dropped him from 4th to about 13th. Over the last stretch of the race when he was back in traffic he didn’t perform as well as he did prior to the caution. When the checkered flag waved he finished 12th. In the race he had a 7th place average running position and earned the 4th best driver rating. This season on 1.5 mile tracks he’s been a strong performer. On tracks of this length he has four wins, a 6.3 average finish (best in series), and a 7.3 average running position (best in series). My prediction is Matt Kenseth will win the AAA Texas 500. (Yahoo A Driver)
Jimmie Johnson – Jimmie Johnson is the defending champion of the AAA Texas 500. Last year he started on the pole, had a 2nd place average running position and led the most laps (168). In the race it’s important to mention he was aided by late cautions and if it wasn’t for them he wouldn’t of been able to challenge and defeat Keselowski at the end. In the spring 2012 race he had the car to beat but Ryan Newman held him up allowing Greg Biffle to catch him late. In that race he led 156 laps, earned the second best driver rating and finished second. At Texas this spring he had a good car but was never truly a threat to win. In the race he started in 7th, had a 7th place average running position, finished 6th and earned the 3rd best driver rating. From a career perspective Texas has been a good track for Johnson. In twenty races he has two wins, 10 top fives and 15 top tens. Charlotte is the most similar track on the schedule and a few weeks ago he came close to winning. In the race he led 130 laps, had a 3rd place average running position and finished 4th. This season on 1.5 mile tracks in incident free races Johnson has typically performed like a 5th place driver. (Yahoo A Driver)
Recommended Reading: Texas Recap Review Scouting Report, Texas Weekly Poll, Texas Front Runner Rankings, Yahoo C List Fantasy NASCAR Preview, Texas Mid Pack Predictions
Kyle Busch – In April at Texas Kyle Busch made his 300th career start. It was a memorable race for him. He started on the pole, led the most laps (171), finished first and earned the best driver rating. In the race he didn’t necessarily have the best car though. If it wasn’t for a late caution and a quick pit stop to get him back the lead he likely would’ve finished 2nd to Martin Truex Jr. Last fall at Texas he had a great car. He started in 3rd, finished 3rd and led 80 laps. From a career standpoint Texas has been a good track for him. He’s finished in the top five 38% percent of the time and in the top eleven 56% percent of the time. This season on 1.5 mile tracks when he’s had “incident free races” he’s won a third of the time and has finished in the top five every race. Kyle Busch should be a very attractive fantasy option in the AAA Texas 500. (Yahoo B Driver)
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