AAA Texas 500 Fantasy NASCAR Mid Pack Predictions
Jamie McMurray – In April at Texas Jamie McMurray finished 16th but that result deserves an asterisk mark. In the race it looked like he had a very good car in the first portion of the race. Through the first 120 laps I would estimate his average running position was around 7th. Then during a round green flag pit stops he got penalized for pitting outside the box. The penalty for that is to get held for 1 lap but NASCAR officials incorrectly held him for 2 laps. Later in the race during a caution NASCAR gave him a wave around to help correct the error. He was never able to truly rebound from the penalty and when the checkered flag waved he finished 16th. In his next two most recent Texas races he had results of 18th and 14th. In 19 starts at Texas he has six top tens but it’s important to note his most recent was in fall 2008. This season on 1.5 mile tracks McMurray has been a quality fantasy option given the tier he’s in. In the 9 races on tracks of this length he has 2 top ten finishes and his 13.6 average result ranks as the 8th best in the series. One slight area of concern though is that in the last three races on 1.5 mile tracks he’s had results of 19th, 16th and 19th. (Yahoo B Driver)
Aric Almirola -Aric Almirola was competitive this spring at Texas. In the race he started in 3rd, finished 7th and earned the 5th best driver rating. His 10.0 average running position from the race underrates him because during an early pit stop he lost a ton of track position. In the second half of the race after he got it back he ran as high as 5th. Last fall he finished 15th but his three other results are all 21st or worse. This season on 1.5 mile tracks he’s been a respectable performer. He has 3 top tens, 5 top fifteens and 7 top twenties. His average finish on these venues in 2013 is 16.1. (Yahoo B Driver)
Recommended Reading: Texas Top Tier Elite, Texas Front Runner Rankings, Yahoo C List Fantasy Preview, Texas Recap Review Scouting Report, Texas Weekly Poll
Marcos Ambrose – Marcos Ambrose had a competitive high single-digit to low double-digit car in April at Texas. His 19th place finish definitely deserves an asterisk mark. In the race he was running in the top ten but shortly after he completed his pit stop during a late pit cycle he spun, lost his track position and wasn’t competitive after that. In the 100 laps prior to his spin I would estimate his average running position was around 8th. From a historical perspective Texas has been an OK track for him. Minus his fall 2012 accident and spring 2009 engine failure his average finish is 15.1. This season on 1.5 mile tracks he has a 15.3 average finish and has had a result in the top ten twice. (Yahoo B Driver)
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