AAA Texas 500 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings Picks

1) Matt Kenseth – It’s likely Matt Kenseth will be many people’s fantasy pick for the AAA Texas 500. The main reason he’ll be ranked so highly is because of how strong he’s been on 1.5 mile tracks this season. In the nine races on tracks of this length he has 4 wins, the best average finish (6.3), best average running position (7.3), best driver rating and has led the most laps. Texas has been a very good track for Kenseth. He’s a two-time winner and has a 8.5 average finish over 22 races. The safety in picking him is nearly unparalleled. Since November of 2005 he’s only finished worse than 12th once and has a 5.9 average finish. At Texas earlier this season Kenseth finished 12th. That result isn’t representative of how well he performed. In the race he had top five potential but a late caution during the pit cycle dropped him from 4th to about 13th. In the last segment of the race while he was back in traffic he didn’t perform nearly as well as he did before. In the race he had a 7th place average running position and earned the 4th best driver rating. Recently he tested at Texas and that’s a big plus. On Sunday Kenseth will start the race in 7th. In practice the 20 car was very good. In Happy Hour they worked on fine tuning. In practice #2 his ten lap average ranked as the 4th best and in Happy Hour it ranked as the best.

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2) Jimmie Johnson – Jimmie Johnson is the defending champion of the AAA Texas 500. In last years race he led 168 laps, earned the best driver rating and had a second place average running position. It should be noted that if it wasn’t for late cautions he likely would’ve finished 2nd to Brad Keselowski. This spring at Texas Johnson had a good car but was never a serious contender for the win. In the race he had a 7th place average running position, finished 6th and earned the 3rd best driver rating. In spring 2011 I thought Johnson had the best car at Texas. In that race he finished 2nd, had a 3rd place average running position and led 156 laps. His downfall in that race was when Ryan Newman fought him hard late to avoid going 2 laps down. That allowed Greg Biffle to catch him and get the lead. From a career perspective Texas has been a good track for Johnson. In twenty races he has two wins, 10 top fives and 15 top tens. Another reason to be positive about Johnson is that he tested here recently. Charlotte is a similar track and a few weeks ago Johnson looked like he was poised to get the win. If it wasn’t for a late caution I think he likely would’ve won. In that race he led 130 laps, had a 3rd place average running position and finished 4th. On Sunday he’ll be using that very chassis once again. In the AAA Texas 500 he’ll be starting in third. In practice the 48 car was very good. Even Chad Knaus was happy with how the car performed. They had a few issues in Happy Hour but it’s nothing to get excited about. In Happy Hour their 10 lap average ranked as the third best and in practice #2 it ranked as the 2nd best.

Recommended Reading: 10 Lap Avg. Speed Cheat Sheet, Happy Hour Notes, Happy Hour Speeds, Practice #2 Notes, Practice #2 Speeds, Texas Qualifying Results, Texas Recap Review Scouting Report, Texas PROS Rankings, Texas Pit Stall Selections

3) Brad Keselowski – Brad Keselowski is the most recent winner on a 1.5 mile track. Evaluating drivers based on recent performances on similar tracks is a smart thing to do. Since Atlanta he’s been in the mix of being one of the strongest performers on this track type. That doesn’t mean all of his finishes have been good though. At Texas earlier this season Keselowski started the race in a hole. His setup was off early because before the race NASCAR made his team change the rear end. Because of that every time pit road was open early he was on pit road. Also in the race he had a loose right rear on lap 138 and dropped 2 laps down. He then used pit strategy in the laps remaining which got him back on the lead lap and got him track position. When the checkered flag waved he finished 9th. Last fall at Texas Keselowski had this race won but late cautions took away a near certain victory. In November last season he led 75 laps, finished 2nd and earned the 2nd best driver rating. On Sunday Keselowski will be using his Atlanta chassis. In this car in September he led 31 laps but his motor blew up while he was leading. He’ll be starting the AAA Texas 500 in 2nd. This race has been won from that starting position three times. The Blue Deuce looked really good in Happy Hour. Over long runs they maintained speed well. His 10 lap average in final practice ranked as the 2nd quickest. In practice #2 it ranked as the 3rd best.