Phoenix AdvoCare 500 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Ranking Picks

1. Jimmie Johnson – It’s hard to go wrong if Jimmie Johnson is your fantasy pick to win the Phoenix AdvoCare 500. Earlier this year at Phoenix he had a great car that was fast over long runs. In the race he finished 2nd, earned the 2nd best driver rating, had the 2nd best PROS Ranking and had a 5th place average running position. Last fall his championship aspirations went down the drain here. In that race he started mid pack and in the last third of the event while running in 7th he had a flat tire and got into the wall hard. Spring 2012 at Phoenix he arguably had the best car. In that race his strength was being good over long runs and rolling through the center of turns. In that race he had a 7th place average running position, finished 4th, earned the 3rd best driver rating and led 55 laps. If he didn’t have lug nut stud issues I think he would’ve won the event. On Sunday in the Phoenix AdvoCare 500 Jimmie Johnson will be starting on the pole (qualifying results) in a brand new chassis. This race has been won from this starting position 11.7% percent of the time and Johnson accomplished this task in 2008. In practice the 48 car was really good. Johnson was happy with how his car worked on the track and when that’s the case the field is in trouble. In practice #2 he had the best 10 lap average and in Happy Hour his ten lap average ranked as the 4th best. Over a 15 lap run he had the best average speed. My prediction is Jimmie Johnson will win the Phoenix AdvoCare 500.

[box type=”tick”]Get the ifantasyrace advantage and get the edge on your competition as the season comes to a close[/box]

2. Kevin Harvick – Last fall at Phoenix word emerged in the garage area that Kevin Harvick would be leaving RCR at the end of 2013 and would be headed to SHR. That distraction certainly didn’t hinder him because in this very race last year he walked away as the winner. By no means would I say he had the best car. If it wasn’t for a late caution that helped him get the lead on a restart there’s no way he would’ve beat Kyle Busch. In March last year he ran out of gas on the last lap and still finished 2nd. This spring at Phoenix he had a high single digit car but finished 13th. In the race he had a 7th place average running position and earned the 5th best driver rating. Richmond is the most similar track on the schedule and he was strong there this season. He won the spring race and finished 11th in the Chase cutoff race. In the  Phoenix AdvoCare 500 Harvick will be driving his 3rd place Chicagoland chassis. He’ll be starting the race in 9th. In practice Kevin Harvick was very impressive. In Happy Hour his ten lap average ranked as the best. In practice #2 it ranked as the 2nd best. I think this car is very close to being right where Kevin Harvick wants it to be. Only small tweaks were done to his car today. In practice #2 he had the 2nd best 15 lap average half way through practice. In Happy Hour his 15 lap average speed ranked as the 7th best.

Recommended Reading: Post Practice Predictions, Speed Cheat Sheet, Happy Hour Speeds, Happy Hour Notes, Practice #2 Speeds, Practice #2 Notes, Phoenix Starting Positions, PROS Rankings, Recap Review Scouting Report

3. Kyle Busch – Last fall at Phoenix Kyle Busch had the field covered. If it wasn’t for a late caution he would’ve won last years AdvoCare 500. He started on the pole, led 237 laps, earned a 143.8 driver rating, and finished 3rd. He lost the race when a late caution came out and Kevin Harvick passed him on the high-side. In March 2012 he finished 6th and led 52 laps. This spring at Phoenix Kyle Busch had the type of performance he would like to forget. Before the race started he changed engines and as a result he had to start in the back. He was able to move up through traffic pretty well but on lap 48 while he was in 15th he spun. He had a hard time getting back on the lead lap and later in the race he brushed up against the wall. When the checkered flag waved he finished 23rd. This season on similar tracks Busch has been a strong performer. He was very good in both New Hampshire races and in the April Richmond race he arguably had the best car. On Sunday Kyle Busch will be starting the race in 4th. Busch had a fast car in practice today. In the respective practice sessions his ten lap averages ranked as the 7th and 5th best. Over a 15 lap run in Happy Hour he had the 10th best average speed.