Homestead-Miami Ford EcoBoost 400 Confidence Ranking Picks
1. Kevin Harvick – It will be hard to go wrong if Kevin Harvick is your fantasy pick for the Homestead-Miami Ford EcoBoost 400. He’s a good fantasy option for people who are leading their league and for those who are going for the “Hail Mary”. The main benefit of picking Kevin Harvick is the safety picking him provides. He has five consecutive top tens at Homestead and his average finish over this stretch ranks as the second best in the series (4.8). From a career standpoint he’s also been remarkably consistent. On the current track configuration he has a 6.8 average finish and has only had a result outside the top ten once. This season on 1.5 mile tracks Kevin Harvick has been very good. In the 10 races on tracks of this length he has 2 wins, 8 top tens and is one of two drivers who have finished in the top fifteen every race. Also on 1.5 mile tracks this season his 7.2 average finish ranks as the second best in the series. He’ll be piloting a brand new chassis in the season finale and will start the race in 6th. When Harvick qualifies well it’s a safe bet he’s got a really good car. In practice today Kevin Harvick didn’t show blazing speed but he’s happy with his car. That’s typically not the case so the competition could really be in trouble this week. In Happy Hour his spotter said that was the happiest Happy Hour they had in a long time. At the end of practice #2 he liked his car following a long run.
2. Martin Truex Jr. – When it comes to running the high-line around tracks Martin Truex Jr. is one of the best drivers in the series at that discipline. Homestead has variable banking and Truex has thrived running the upper groove. Last year at Homestead his car was extremely strong. His PROS Rankings for the event ranked as the 2nd best. In the race he earned the third best driver rating, led 11 laps and finished 6th. If the race didn’t come down to fuel mileage he would’ve finished 2nd to Kyle Busch. Late in the race with 20 laps to go he was hot on Kyle Busch’s heels for the lead. In the 2012 race there was a minor issue with his car. It was setup solely for the high-line and when he changed grooves to run lower on the track his car wasn’t nearly as strong. From a career perspective Homestead is arguably Truex Jr.’s best track. Minus his first race where he had tire problems he has a 6.7 average finish and hasn’t had a result worse than 11th. For the season on 1.5 mile tracks Truex Jr. has been a strong performer, but in the Chase he hasn’t been nearly as good. In tracks of this length in the playoffs he has a 18.3 average finish and a best result of 14th. On Sunday Truex Jr. will be starting the race in 8th. In practice the 56 car was one of the fastest. In practice #2 he had the best 10 lap average. In Happy Hour his ten lap average ranked as the 4th best. His car is so good that he even caught Chad Knaus’s attention for being one of the fastest cars. Look for this team to go for the all out “Hail Mary” in Truex Jr.’s final race for the organization.
Recommended Reading: 2014 Printable Schedule, Post Practice Predictions, Average Speed Cheat Sheet, Happy Hour Speeds, Happy Hour Notes, Practice #2 Speeds, Practice #2 Notes, Qualifying Results, PROS Rankings, Recap Review Scouting Report, Pit Stall Selections
3. Matt Kenseth – On Sunday Kenseth will be starting on the pole for the season finale. This race has been won from that starting position twice but never on the current track configuration. Last season at Homestead Kenseth finished 18th. In the race he had about a 7th place car but how the end of the race played out wasn’t favorable for him. In his next two most recent Homestead races he had results of 4th and 9th. In 2007 he won the season finale. On 1.5 mile tracks this season Kenseth has been a phenomenal performer. On them he has a 4 wins, 6 top fives and is one of only two drivers who have finished in the top fifteen every race. In terms of loop data statistics on these venues he has a 6.1 average finish, led the 2nd most laps, ran the 2nd most fast laps, has a 7.7 average running position and has the best driver rating. In practice this weekend Kenseth has looked good enough to win. My main concern about him is that I don’t view him as a clutch performer. In fact I would say he’s an anti-clutch performer if anything. In practice #2 his ten lap average ranked as the 4th best. In Happy Hour it ranked as the 17th best.
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