Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Homestead – Ford EcoBoost 400 (2013 Chase Race #10)
One More MWR Win For Truex?
Well, this is it. If you’re fighting for you league championship this weekend, good luck, and I hope ifantasyrace helped you along the way. Homestead is the race where you can throw the “Hail Mary” roster out there or play it conservatively. A lot of teams use this race to experiment with setups and engines, and I’d definitely recommend avoiding the latter. This race can also get screwy because you don’t know which drivers have already packed it in for the season and aren’t even trying any more. Pretty much all you can do is pick the fastest cars and hope for the best. Here’s the practice results from Saturday: Practice #2 — Happy Hour as well as our in-depth notes from each session: Practice #2 — Happy Hour. Matt “Too Little Too Late” Kenseth won the pole for Sunday’s Ford EcoBoost 400, and the full starting lineup can be found by clicking here.
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Final Top 15 Ranking For The Ford EcoBoost 400:
*Chase drivers marked in red*
1. Matt Kenseth – Starts 1st – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Let’s just ignore this team’s struggles last weekend at Phoenix, because I’m not exactly sure how that happened. When it comes to Homestead-Miami Speedway, Matt Kenseth is anything but a “sure lock” pick, as his career average finish of 17.6 here is anything but desirable, as well as the fact that three of the last five events here have ended with Kenseth outside of the top 10. That being said, it’s hard to go against the guy that’s sitting on the pole heading into Sunday’s Ford EcoBoost 400, and even harder to go against this #20 team, who have been absolutely unstoppable on the intermediate tracks pretty much all year. Practice-wise, Kenseth was pretty much dominant all day Saturday. He posted the fastest laps in each session, the 4th-best ten-lap average in Practice #2, and the 17th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour (to be fair, that run was made later in the session). It Matt wants any chance at winning this year’s championship, he needs to go out there and get max points. He has the track position going into Sunday’s finale and looks to have the car to do so as well. A top 5 (at least) is to be expected out of the #20 on Sunday, but I’m expecting a win.
2. Martin Truex, Jr. – Starts 8th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Before he emerged as one of the top intermediate races in the Sprint Cup series this year, Truex’s name was pretty much only thrown around when we stopped at Dover and, of course, Homestead. Statistically this is his best track on the circuit, as he sports a 9.9 average finish over 8 career starts. If you take away his race here in 2004 where he had a flat tire and finished 32nd, that average finish jumps up to an incredible 6.7. He’s going to win a race at this venue soon, the question is just when. Truex will start Sunday’s Ford EcoBoost 400 from 8th and should be inside the top 10 all day long. In terms of ten-lap average, the #56 Toyota was 4th-best in Happy Hour and posted the 4th-fastest overall lap. Truex ended up 6th here last season after his 3rd-place run in the 2011 finale. Considering this is his last race for Michael Waltrip Racing, part of me thinks that it’d sure be nice to see Truex end on a good note and maybe even bring this #56 Toyota to victory lane on Sunday. Then again, he really was the one who got screwed (I think “scapegoat” could come into play here) with that whole deal at Richmond, so part of me wants him to destroy this car by running it into the fence and letting Mikey pay for it. For fantasy owners’ sake (myself included), I hope the former happens, and I’d say it has a better chance than option #2.
3. Kevin Harvick – Starts 6th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Lame duck status my ass. Since this team’s blunder at Loudon back in September, they’ve rattled off two wins, three 6th-place finishes, an 8th, and a 12th in the seven races up to this point. Jimmie Johnson pretty much has this championship wrapped up, but just in case something does happen, Matt Kenseth and Kevin Harvick are going to be driving like mad men to capitalize. These are the drivers you want on your fantasy teams. Surprising as it may be, Homestead-Miami Speedway is the best track on the circuit (statistically) for Happy Harvick. He’s never visited victory lane here, but in 12 career starts he owns an average finish of 7.9, 5 top 5s, and 10 top 10s. Harvick has never had a result worse than 20th at this track and I’d bet money that that won’t change on Sunday. In the last three years at Homestead, the #29 team has walked away with finishes of 3rd, 8th, and 8th, despite starting 28th, 21st, and 23rd, respectively. Good news for Harvick fans is that on Friday he qualified 6th for this year’s Ford EcoBoost 400 and was inside the top 5 in both practice sessions on Saturday. His ten-lap average during Happy Hour wasn’t great (21st-best) but that run came later in the session, so that could be the reason.
4. Joey Logano – Starts 3rd – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
You should know the drill with Joey Logano and this #22 team by now: if they qualify up front, they generally have a very good race car that weekend. “Sliced Bread” will roll off the grid in 3rd on Sunday and barring anything major happening should be able to end his 2013 season on a high note with at least a top 10 finish. Logano was solidly inside the top 10 in both practice sessions on Saturday and ended up with the 7th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour. Statistically, Homestead hasn’t been great for him, but he’s improving. After two disaster runs in 2009 and 2010 (24th and 39th-place finishes), he’s posted a 19th-place run in 2011 (after starting 32nd) and a 14th-place result from the pole in this event one year ago. This is one of those tracks that the move to Ford should help Joey a little bit. I wouldn’t get too caught up on his 24th-place average finish here, as he should be much better than that on Sunday. Just looking at recent intermediate track races, Logano has ended up 3rd (Texas) and 4th (Kansas), not to mention his other top 5 runs earlier in the year on the ovals. This team brought chassis PRS-865 to the track this weekend, which is the same one that Logano finished 3rd with at Dover in September.
5. Jeff Gordon – Starts 26th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Except for his win at Martinsville, Jeff Gordon hasn’t been too kind to fantasy owners here as of late. Not all of that is his fault but, still, it’s the finish that matters in fantasy racing. All other things aside, Gordon is a great pick when the series stops here at Homestead. He was finally able to break through into victory lane here one year ago and now has finished 6th or better in five of the last six Homestead races. Will he be able to add another solid run to his resume on Sunday? We shall see, but if he does, he’s going to have to put in some work. The #24 Chevrolet ended up 26th in qualifying on Friday and wasn’t blazing-fast in terms of one-fast-lap during the two practice sessions on Saturday. That being said, he had the 2nd-best ten-lap average in Practice #2 and ranked 8th on that chart in Happy Hour–which is actually pretty good considering he made that run on laps 25 through 34. As long as this team has no mistakes and the driver runs a solid race, there’s no reason to think that Jeff Gordon shouldn’t challenge for at least a top 10 finish in this year’s Ford EcoBoost 400. Speed-wise he has a top 5 car but he has quite a few cars to pass to get up there on Sunday.
6. Jimmie Johnson – Starts 7th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
There’s always concern for the points leader (and other drivers, actually) to not put in full effort at the Homestead race. When you have a lead like Jimmie Johnson does, why risk it? Still, it’s not like he’s going to lie down and purposely run slow. Sure, this #48 team will probably play it conservatively and not lay it all on the line for a win, but Johnson is still going to run near normal. Let’s look at his Homestead races during his championship seasons. 2006 he finished 9th, 56 points ahead of Kenseth; 2007 he finished 7th, 77 points ahead of Gordon; 2008 he finished 15th, 69 points ahead of Edwards; 2009 he finished 5th, 141 points ahead of Martin; and in 2010 he finished 2nd, 39 points ahead of Hamlin. What I like the most after analyzing that is his 2009 race: the #48 team went out and ran top 5 despite having the championship wrapped up before the race even started. I see no reason why Johnson won’t be at least a top 10 car come Sunday evening. On Friday he went out and qualified 7th for the Ford EcoBoost 400, and had the best ten-lap average in Happy Hour after ending up 6th on that chart in Practice #2. The #48 Chevrolet ranked 2nd in Happy Hour in terms of one fast lap. JJ has had problems each of the last two years at Homestead, but you can’t predict mechanical issues, so I’m not worried about it. In 7 of the last 11 races at this track, Johnson has finished 9th or better. He should make it 8 in the last 12 on Sunday. He probably has a car that could win the race but there’s no reason to take the risk.
7. Brad Keselowski – Starts 4th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
Our 2012 champion has never finished better than 13th at Homestead-Miami Speedway but that could easily change on Sunday. He went out there and qualified 4th on Friday and, after struggling quite a bit in Practice #2 on Saturday (27th-fastest), the Blue Deuce posted the 3rd-best lap in Happy Hour behind Matt Kenseth and Jimmie Johnson. This #2 team has finished 11th or better in four of the last five Sprint Cup races, and it’s not a secret that when the Penske Fords have good qualifying efforts, they tend to race just as well. Keselowski finished 15th in this race last season but you have to wonder how much he was really trying considering he had the championship wrapped up. On a positive note, his qualifying effort Friday makes it three straight Homestead races where Bad Brad has started inside the top 5, so now he just needs to get the finishes to go along with it.
8. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. – Starts 21st – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
NASCAR’s golden boy is probably going to go win-less in 2013, but if he’s able to post a top 10 finish here at Homestead on Sunday evening, this season will be the one where he’s had the most top 10 finishes in his 15-year career. Consistency, consistency, consistency. Except for this team’s blown engine at Chicago, the Chase has been excellent for the #88 crew. In fact, over the last 8 Sprint Cup races, only one driver (Jimmie Johnson, of course) has scored more points than Junior, who is averaging 38.9 over that span. In last season’s finale, Earnhardt was finally able to crack the top 10 at Homestead-Miami Speedway–his first such result in 13 attempts–and with the way this team has been running, I could see him adding a second on Sunday. He didn’t post a super-fast lap but his ten-lap average in Happy Hour was good enough for 3rd-best behind Johnson and Biffle. Dale will roll off the grid in 21st when the green flag waves on the Ford EcoBoost 400 but this is a pretty big race track and he will have plenty of opportunities to pass. This team is running the same chassis (no. 88-822) that they finished 8th with at Kansas last month.
9. Kasey Kahne – Starts 13th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
With his runner-up finish in the desert last weekend, Kasey Kahne now has back-to-back top 5 finishes. Obviously this team would love to grab another one here this weekend at Homestead but I’m not sure whether they have the car to do it. Then again, I thought the #5 car was just a top 10 threat last weekend. Kasey has been hit or miss at this track, just like many other venues on the circuit. He has four finishes between 4th and 7th in nine career starts compared to three finishes outside of the top 20 completely. Like many other drivers, Kahne struggled a little bit in Practice #2 (19th quick) before picking it up in Happy Hour (7th-fastest). When it came to ten-lap average, the #5 Chevrolet ranked 18th and 10th during those sessions, respectively. I always have more confidence in KK when he qualifies near the front, so I view him as a little risky this weekend (he qualified 13th).
10. Kurt Busch – Starts 2nd – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**
This team has been so up and down in the Chase that it’s hard to predict exactly what Kurt Busch is going to give you. He ended up 5th at Phoenix last weekend, which was his first top 10 finish since his runner-up result at Kansas back in early October. In the five races between those top 5s, Kurt ended up between 14th and 18th in each of them, so, like I said, kind of unpredictable and with no consistency. In case you forgot, Busch finished out the 2012 season with Furniture Row and was able to post a 9th-place result here at Homestead, his fifth top 10 in twelve career starts at the track. Kurt is really hit-or-miss here, just like most other venues, but he’ll start 2nd on Sunday and has looked pretty good in practice this weekend–at least early in the day. In session #2, the #78 was 4th on the speed chart and in Happy Hour he ranked 24th. This is one of the teams that I think could be running experimental stuff in the car so you may want to keep an eye out for that in the crew chief notes.
11. Greg Biffle – Starts 16th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Practice speeds mean nothing when it comes to the #16 team. They started dead last at Phoenix last weekend and still finished 13th–a mark they have ended up better or at in seven of the last eight Sprint Cup races. They’re not wowing anybody by any means but they’re consistent. It’d just be nice if the #16 was able to challenge for top 5s more often (Biffle only has one top 5 finish in the last 20 Sprint Cup races). The Roush-Fenway cars are all in the same boat in my eyes. Personally I would rank them 16-99-17. Biffle gets a slight nod over Edwards because of the high starting position, and I don’t trust Stenhouse enough just yet–although his 9th-place qualifying effort was nice this week. Going back to Biffle, he has finished 14th or better in three of the last four events at Homestead and should be able to make it four in the last five come Sunday. This #16 team could end up challenging for a top 10 when the checkered flag waves but going into the race I have them pegged as just a top 15 car. One real positive note for The Biff is that he ranked 2nd in ten-lap average during Happy Hour, despite the fact that his crew chief didn’t seem to like his long run speed in Practice #2.
12. Ryan Newman – Starts 15th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Two of the six experts on FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com this week initially had Ryan Newman as the “Avoid” pick, and I’m not really sure why. Sure, he’s not the first guy you think of when we stop at an intermediate track, but he’s consistent and when you take out his Martinsville disappointment, he’s averaging 35.8 points per race over the last four. I’ll take that any day of the week out of a guy like Newman. On top of that, “The Rocketman” has finished 12th or better in each of the last three Homestead races and he qualified 15th on Friday for this year’s finale. The chassis that this #39 team brought to the track this weekend is no. 39-733, which has seen a whole bunch of action in 2013. Most recently, Newman finished 10th with it at Chicago, and this is the same car he won with at Indianapolis. Six of the nine Chase races this year have ended with Ryan Newman finishing inside the top 10 and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see him add a seventh here at Homestead on Sunday. In terms of practice, Newman was his normal middle-of-the-road self on Saturday, and he ended up 19th on the speed chart in that final session.
13. Carl Edwards – Starts 18th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Low Risk**
Cousin Carl actually had somewhat of an off year here at Homestead last season as he finished 12th with a driver rating of 105.9. In the two years prior, Edwards finished 1st and 2nd, posting a perfect driver rating of 150.0 in his win and a 141.3 with his 2nd. Before 2012, Carl was on a 7-race streak of finishes of 8th or better at Homestead. Obviously that came to an end last year but it should still be noted that he’s never finished worse than 14th at this track and has an insane career average finish of 6th here. Practice this weekend was normal for the #99 team: not very telling. He was 14th-quick in Practice #2 before posting the 11th-best lap in Happy Hour. Of course Edwards never made it to the ten-lap average charts so it’s hard to say what kind of car he has on the long runs. Hell, Carl only ran 23 laps in that final practice session. History alone says Edwards will be a good pick on Sunday but how much are you willing to rely on that? He starts mid-pack in 18th. It’s worth noting that this team hasn’t had a top 10 since Charlotte a month ago, although Carl’s near win at Phoenix last weekend has to be a positive in the minds of fantasy owners.
14. Kyle Busch – Starts 11th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I wasn’t even going to have Kyle Busch ranked this week but he went out in qualifying and put down the 5th-best ten-lap average and that is something that can’t be ignored. This #18 has fallen apart, in my opinion, and I think Rowdy is just done with this 2013 season. Even their 7th-place finish at Phoenix last weekend was due more to luck than how good the car was. Here at Homestead, Bush owns a career average finish of 23.1, but that is really brought down by his terrible runs that were due to wrecks or mechanical issues. He finished 4th here last season, and although I don’t see anything like that happening on Sunday, you can never count Kyle Busch out. In eight career starts here he has just two top 10 finishes, though. Because his teammate, Matt Kenseth, is so fast this weekend, you have to think that the #18 would have some of that speed, too, but Busch was in the teens in both practice sessions on Saturday. I guess it’s better to have long run speed, though, which Rowdy looks to have. In most leagues I wouldn’t take Kyle Busch this week simply because you probably have better options (Johnson, Kenseth, Harvick). But in some situations it may be worth a roll of the dice and starting the #18.
15. Paul Menard – Starts 12th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**
I decided to avoid putting a “big name” driver in this spot and instead chose Paul Menard for those of you looking for a deeper pick this last week. This #27 team has quietly been racking up points as of late, finishing 15th and 16th at Texas and Phoenix after their 7th-place run at Kansas and 4th-place effort at Talladega. I don’t think it’s crazy to expect another top 15 finish out of Menard here at Homestead on Sunday, and if everything goes right he may be able to challenge for a top 10. He ran 11th here in 2012, which is a career-best at this track, after finishing 16th in the 2011 finale. On Saturday, Menard regressed a little bit between the two practice sessions and ended up 12th on the speed chart in Happy Hour after posting the 6th-best lap in Practice #2. In terms of ten-lap average, the #27 Chevrolet was 11th in that final session. Paul is a pretty good intermediate track driver and has shown this season that he can usually be relied upon for a solid teens finish when the series stops at venues like Homestead.
A Few Words About Other Drivers:
Denny Hamlin showed last week at Phoenix just how untrustworthy he is and is once again on my avoid list. He has been fast all weekend long but I don’t care. He’ll start 5th on Sunday and had the 6th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour but I still wouldn’t touch the #11 with a ten foot pole. If you’re going with the Hail Mary approach this weekend, though, Hamlin might be your guy. Clint Bowyer sort of got overlooked when I was making my rankings but I’m still not expecting much out of him. He’s finished 6th and 2nd in the last two races here, but honestly it would surprise me if he even broke the top 10 on Sunday. He had the 9th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour but starts 25th. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. had a solid qualifying effort on Friday, winding up 9th, but never really impressed me during the practice sessions Saturday. A top 15 is within reach for this #17 team but not much more I’m afraid. Mark Martin was consistently fast during the practices Saturday and had a couple of decent runs here lately. In this event last season he finished 16th and could be good for another teens finish if he can stay out of trouble. He starts 22nd. Kyle Larson showed pretty good speed in both practice sessions Saturday (15th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour) but there are concerns in terms of his equipment and how long it will last. On a positive note, he finished 23rd at Texas earlier this month and could have a similar run here at Homestead if all goes well. I will say this: he will be fun to watch next year when he’s in decently reliable equipment. Elliott Sadler qualified 10th but I just see this team struggling to stay anywhere near there on Sunday. He might be able to squeak out a top 20, but even that’s pushing it, in my opinion. Trevor Bayne is usually good for a top 20 finish when he runs the Cup race, but if you’re going strictly off of practice speeds, the #21 is a mid-20s car. With wrecks and mechanical issues, though, Trevor might be able to sneak up into the teens. Finally, this is Juan Montoya‘s last race in the Sprint Cup series, and although he was 10th on the speed chart in Happy Hour, I just don’t see the #42 having long run speed this weekend. Also, his last top 20 finish at this track came back in 2008, and not to mention he’ll start 27th on Sunday.
