Kyle Larson 2014 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
2013 Stats: Average Running Position 26.6, Average Finish 29.3, Laps Led 1, Driver Rating 59.7
Strengths- I think Larson will likely be at his best on intermediate tracks with low grip levels where the high-line comes into play.
Weaknesses- Kyle Larson will have two key weaknesses in 2014. His biggest weakness will be his equipment. Earnhardt Ganassi cars aren’t on par against the big boys. If he was in a Hendrick car or JGR car he has the talent that he could be a break out star. Also Larson lacks experience. In NASCAR’s top series he only has four starts under his belt. He’s likely a prodigy but even the best are prone to struggle in their rookie season’s.
Intermediate Track Grade- B, Kyle Larson has shown flashes of good things to come on this track type in 2013. At Charlotte he was poised to finish in the mid teens or better but his engine blew up. In the season finale at Homestead he finished 15th. In 2014 he’ll be in better equipment then the 51 team provided. I’ll predict more than half his top tens this upcoming season will be on this track type.
Flat Track Grade- B-, It’s hard to see anything great happening for him at these venues in 2014. He didn’t do anything special in the lower series and when you calculate his inexperience and slight equipment deficiency into the equation I think it’s clear you’ll likely want to steer clear of him.
Short Track Grade- B-, I think Larson will have dark horse potential at Bristol but other than that he’s a driver who you will want to steer clear of. In the Nationwide Series he was very impressive in the spring Bristol race and he nearly beat Kyle Busch. Last year in the Nationwide Series at Richmond he had results of 8th and 14th. At Martinsville in the Sprint Cup Series in October he struggled and his day ended early with an engine failure.
Restrictor Plate Track Grade- B-, The drafting package in the Sprint Cup series is different from what it is in the lower series. In the Nationwide series last season he wrecked in the first two races and in the summer Daytona race he finished 6th. In the lower series at Daytona #1 he was running well until he wrecked on the last lap.
Road Course Track Grade- B-, EGR cars have potential on this track type but experience matters at these venues. In the lower series on this track type his average finish was 17.0. In the Nationwide series at Watkins Glen he finished 30th with an engine failure.
How to use Kyle Larson from a fantasy NASCAR perspective in 2014? With all rookies I think it’s best to be patient and see just how good he is with his team. From an allocation perspective it would be best to wait until he has a body of work and visits tracks the second time around.
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