Denny Hamlin 2014 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
2013 Stats: Points Finish 23rd, 5 Poles, 1 Win, 4 Top Fives, 8 Top Tens, Average Running Position 15.7, Average Finish 21.0, Laps Led 363, Driver Rating 82.4
Strengths- Denny Hamlin is an elite talent on short tracks and flat tracks. When he’s 100% he’s arguably the best driver in the series on both of those track types. Hamlin is also a very strong performer on intermediate tracks where the surface has aged.
Weaknesses- One weakness for Denny Hamlin heading into 2014 is his health situation. It improved greatly at the end of 2013 because of a new treatment. I hope that continues but there’s a risk that somehow it might lose its effectiveness over time. In terms of a predictable on track weakness Denny Hamlin has struggled on road courses over the past four seasons.
Intermediate Track Grade- A-, Towards the end of 2013 Denny Hamlin really improved performance wise on this track type. He capped off his season with a win at Homestead. In the other Chase races on this track type despite his results he typically performed in the top ten. From a season long perspective Hamlin had many good performances on this track type but lots of good results were dashed due to circumstances in the race whether it was an engine failure, flat tire, speeding penalty or an accident.
In 2012 Hamlin scored the 7th most points on this track type and won two races. In 2014 I expect him to perform like he did in 2012. Look for Hamlin to have his best performances on this track type at venues where the surface has aged. His last three wins on this track type have all come at venues where the surface is arguably the roughest (Homestead, Atlanta and Kansas prior to the repave ).
Flat Track Grade- A-, My long running Denny Hamlin fantasy mantra is, “If it’s short or flat pick Hamlin”. A healthy Denny Hamlin is as good as it gets on this track type. He’s an excellent default fantasy pick at all of the flat tracks minus Indy. Assuming he’ll be healthy in 2014 I expect big things from him. Fantasy wise I’m going to overlook his results on flat tracks from 2013 because what I seen on the track wasn’t a healthy Hamlin.
In 2012 on shorter flat tracks Hamlin had two wins, led 444 laps and had a 1.5 average finish. If his crew chief didn’t make a crucial mistake in the summer New Hampshire race then he would’ve won that race also.
On the big flat tracks Hamlin is always a popular fantasy pick at Pocono. I would argue he’s a little bit overrated there because he’s only finished in the top ten in two out of the last five races there. For whatever reason Indy hasn’t been the friendliest track to Hamlin. In 2012 he won the pole, led 26 laps and finished 6th.
Short Track Grade- A, If Hamlin’s health were guaranteed to be 100% I would give him an A+ on this track type. He’s an excellent default fantasy pick at all three short tracks. His most recent win on this track type was in the 2012 summer race at Bristol. That race was the first event held on the ground down surface. Last season at Bristol Hamlin had good performances but came home with disappointing finishes in the 20’s twice. In the spring Bristol race he was very impressive. He led the most laps, had a 4th place average running position but had problems right at the end. In the summer Bristol race he won the pole, led 23 laps but also had problems late.
Martinsville is arguably Hamlin’s best short track. He’s a four-time winner and has a 8.8 average finish. Performance wise he’s better than his average finish because it’s skewed up from two poor results. In 2013 Hamlin only raced at Martinsville once. In October he won the pole, led 14 laps and finished 7th.
Richmond is Denny Hamlin’s home track. He only raced there once in 2013 and it was a forgettable performance. From a career perspective he’s been a phenomenal performer there. He’s a former winner and has a 8.9 average finish.
Restrictor Plate Track Grade- B-, Things didn’t go smoothly for Denny Hamlin on this track type in 2013. He performed well in the Daytona 500 and likely had a top five car but he slipped back to his eventual 14th place finish late in the race. In the other races on this track type in 2013 he had a result in the 30’s.
Road Course Track Grade- C, Road courses have been very trying venues for Hamlin recently. I believe in his talent on this track type but his results are his results. In his last four races at Infineon he has a 32.25 average finish. In his last four races at Watkins Glen he has a 31.5 average finish. Early in his career Hamlin was very solid on this track type. At Watkins Glen he started off his career with four straight top ten results. In three of his first four races at Infineon he had a result in the top twelve.
How to use Denny Hamlin from a fantasy NASCAR perspective in 2014? Assuming everything is fine with Hamlin which is part of the premise of this preview you’ll want to pick him at short tracks, flat tracks and intermediate tracks where the surface has aged.
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