Marcos Ambrose 2014 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
2013 Stats: Points Finish 22nd, 1 Pole, 0 Wins, 0 Top Fives, 6 Top Tens, Average Running Position 19.5, Average Finish 19.9, Laps Led 71, Driver Rating 73.41
Strengths- Marcos Ambrose is unquestionably at his best on road courses. On that track type he’s arguably the best road course racer in the series at the moment. Ambrose also has sporadic success on intermediate tracks from time to time.
Weaknesses- One major problem for this team is that they don’t perform well consistently. Dating back to September 2012 they’ve only had consecutive top tens once. Since 2011 some of his stats have nearly halved. In 2011 he had 5 top fives and 12 top tens. Last season he had zero top fives and just 6 top tens. This team needs to find something competition wise because that negative trend is very real.
Intermediate Track Grade- B-, From time to time Marcos Ambrose is capable of coming home with good finishes on this track type. Predicting when he’ll get a good result though is the tough part. The venues where he’s capable of having success are Michigan, Charlotte, Atlanta, Kansas and Kentucky. Among those tracks Michigan is his safest track. Since it was repaved he’s finished in the top ten 75% percent of the time. Overall I wouldn’t rely on Ambrose on this track type. In 2013 he had a 18.8 average finish and only had a result in the top fifteen 35% percent of the time. I think in 2014 this team will perform at a similar level but I think the competition will be tougher which will degrade his fantasy value slightly.
Flat Track Grade- B-, Marcos Ambrose had a safe successful season on the big flat tracks last season. He had a 15.0 average finish and scored the 15th most points. At Indy last season he had his all-time best result and finished 16th. Since Pocono was repaved Ambrose has really taken well to that track. On that new surface he has a 13.0 average finish.
Small flat tracks have been an area of weakness for him. At New Hampshire he’s only finished in the top ten once and has finished 18th or worse 80% percent of the time. That’s not good in my book. In the last three races at Phoenix he’s had results of 18th, 18th and 26th.
Short Track Grade- B-, A third of Marcos Ambrose’s top tens came on this track type in 2013. He finished 8th at Martinsville in the spring and finished 8th at Bristol in August. At short tracks in terms of strength for him I would rank them Bristol, Martinsville and then Richmond. At Bristol he has a 15.9 average finish and has had a result in the top ten 50% percent of the time. Currently in the night race he has three consecutive top tens. At Martinsville this spring he qualified 2nd, led the first lap and finished 8th. That marked his only top ten at Martinsville. At Richmond Ambrose had some early success in his career but not much lately. Since 2011 minus his engine failure this spring he has an unskewed 21.6 average finish.
Restrictor Plate Track Grade- C+, Last season on restrictor plate tracks Ambrose had a 24.25 average finish. In the first two races on this track type he fared OK and came home with finishes of 18th and 14th. In the Daytona night race he looked good and ran near the front late until eventual winner Jimmie Johnson got aggressive and took him out. In the Chase Talladega race he was involved in an accident and finished 39th. In 2012 Ambrose had a similar trend on this track type where he finished well the first two races but had problems in the second trip to venues. Overall on this track type I think he’s a very high-risk option.
Road Course Track Grade- A, Marcos Ambrose has been very successful at road courses throughout his career. His strength at these venues is being aggressive and working his way up through the field. At Watkins Glen in 2013 he was going for his third straight win but a caution trapped him back in the field and shortly after that he got caught up in a wreck. If that didn’t happen he very well could’ve won the race. In that event he started on the pole and led more than half the race (51 laps). Prior to his wreck his average finish in his first five Watkins Glen races was 2nd. At Infineon he hasn’t been quite as successful. Aggressiveness doesn’t work over long runs there and it’s hurt him. Minus his first race where he had transmission issues than he would have a 5.8 average finish at Infineon.
[button link=”http://fantasyracingcheatsheet.com/nascar/drivers/marcos-ambrose/77″ style=”tick”]FantasyRacingCheatSheet.com Marcos Ambrose Page[/button]
