Jamie McMurray 2014 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
2013 Stats: Points Finish 15th, 1 Pole, 1 Win, 4 Top Fives, 9 Top Tens, Average Running Position 16.3, Average Finish 16.6, Laps Led 71, Driver Rating 81.2
Strengths- McMurray is an underrated short track driver. Don’t overlook him at those venues.
Weaknesses- This may surprise people since he won at Talladega in 2013 but McMurray is an extremely high risk fantasy option on restrictor plate tracks.
NASCAR Printable 2014 Schedule
Intermediate Track Grade- B-, Last season on intermediate tracks McMurray scored the 21st most points. Also on these venues he had a 17.4 average running position and a 18.6 average finish. His highlight of the season on this track type came at Kentucky where he finished runner-up. For the year he only had one other top ten result to his name. A typical expectant finish for him on intermediate tracks would be right around his average finish.
Flat Track Grade- B, When it comes to flat tracks I like McMurray more at the big flats. At Indy he’s a previous winner and has a 14.1 average finish. Also at that venue he’s finished in the top ten 45% percent of the time. Last season he finished 15th. At Pocono he has a 20.8 average finish but since it’s been repaved he’s performed better. On the new Tricky Triangle surface he has a 14th place average finish.
McMurray shouldn’t be trusted nearly as much on the shorter flat tracks. At Phoenix since the track configuration changed he has a best finish of 17th and a 23.4 average finish. If you pick him you should expect a result right around 20th. At New Hampshire in September McMurray finished 5th. It’s important to point out that’s just his second top ten result there since 2005. His New Hampshire average finish is 21.5.
Short Track Grade- B+, McMurry is an underrated talent on short tracks. I like his fantasy value at both Bristol and Martinsville. At Bristol he finished 10th in the spring and since August 2009 his 11.2 average finish ranks as the 4th best in the series. Over that span of races he’s finished in the top ten 67% percent of the time.
At Martinsville I’ve long viewed him as a quality sleeper. Last season he had results of 10th and 7th. Overall at Martinsville he’s finished in the top ten 55% percent of the time. At no other track on the schedule does he have a better top ten percentage.
At Richmond his fantasy value isn’t as strong. A typical day for him there would be a result in the mid to upper teens. Last fall at RIR he finished 4th. In the spring Richmond race McMurray was poised to finish around 10th but he used pit strategy late and was on old tires. As a result he fell back to his 26th place finish position.
Overall on short tracks last season McMurray scored the 9th most points.
Restrictor Plate Track Grade- B-, If you want to roll the dice with somebody who’s capable of winning pick McMurray. In his career he’s won four races on this track type. He’s won at Daytona twice and Talladega twice. Last fall at Talladega he earned his 2nd career victory there. When it comes to picking McMurray it’s important to note the risk involved. At that venue he’s either a hero or a zero. Since 2008 he has three top 2’s but in his other starts since then he’s finished 21st or worse in every race but one.
At Daytona in the summer McMurray finished 7th. That marked his first top ten since he won the Daytona 500 in 2010. To find his next top ten you have to go all the way back to his 2007 win. Typically at Daytona McMurray is a driver who’s hard on luck. His average finish is 23.7 and he’s only finished in the top twenty 36% percent of the time.
Road Course Track Grade- B, Jamie McMurray shouldn’t be to high on your list of fantasy options on road courses. Last season he won the pole at Infineon but turned that into a 25th place finish. At Infineon McMurray has one top ten and it was back in 2004. Since then he’s finished in the teens 77% percent of the time.
At Watkins Glen McMurray has had slightly better results but he’s only finished in the teens or better 64% percent of the time. Last season at the Glen he started in 6th and finished 11th.
Overall on this track type I think McMurray has the skill to get good finishes but it’s likely you’ll have better fantasy options.
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