Aric Almirola 2014 Fantasy NASCAR Preview

2013 Stats: Points Finish 18th, 0 Poles, 0 Wins, 1 Top Five, 6 Top Tens, Average Running Position 18.4, Average Finish 18.8, Laps Led 11, Driver Rating 74.7

Strengths- Aric Almirola is typically at his best on intermediate tracks.

Weaknesses- I wouldn’t feel comfortable having him on my fantasy team at big flat tracks, road courses, or Daytona.

Intermediate Track Grade- B, Intermediate tracks aren’t bad venues for Aric Almirola. Last season minus the first Charlotte race (accident) he had a 16.5 average finish and had a result in the top twenty 81% percent of the time. To put that into perspective that’s the same top 20 percentage over the same sample of races as Johnson, Kyle Busch, Logano, Bowyer and a few others. It’s important to point out though that Almirola doesn’t get their good results. Last season on this track type he only had three top tens. His two best intermediate tracks where his fantasy value is the highest are Kansas and Homestead. I think it’s clear he’s a big fan of tracks with variable banking.

Flat Track Grade- B-, On the big flat tracks Almirola has an established 20th place fantasy value at both venues. At Indy he has an 18th place average finish and last season he had a 17th place result. At Pocono last season he had results of 20th and 21st. His Tricky Triangle average finish is 21.8.

I like Almirola’s fantasy potential more at the shorter flat tracks. At Phoenix he should be good for a mid teens performance. In the last four races at that venue he has a 15.5 average finish and a 15.8 average running position. At New Hampshire in July he played the pit strategy game at the end and finished 5th. In September he finished 21st. His overall New Hampshire finish is 21.0.

Short Track Grade- B-, Aric Almirola is a capable short track driver. If the race plays into his hands he’s capable of coming home with a solid finish. Unfortunately I wouldn’t feel comfortable betting on him getting a good result. Last season at Martinsville he finished 20th twice. In 2012 he had results of 4th and 8th.

At Richmond last spring he had his best result and finished 8th. That result in a large part can be credited to how the end of the race played out. His other Richmond results are 20th, 26th and 26th.

At Bristol in the summer he finished 15th. The last time he had a better result than that was in 2008.

Restrictor Plate Track Grade- B, Aric Almirola has been a fairly safe fantasy option at Talladega. Over the last six races he has a 15.8 average finish and a 13.5 average running position. Over that span of races his average finish ranks as the 14th best in the series.

In the 2013 Daytona 500 Almirola finished 13th. That’s his overall best finish at that venue. For the most part Almirola carries significant risk there. He’s finished 30th or worse 60% percent of the time. His Daytona average finish is 26.6.

Road Course Track Grade- C, Aric Almirola has yet to have a good race on this track type in his career. At Infineon he has a 25.3 average finish and hasn’t had a result better than 20th. At Watkins Glen he has a best finish of 18th and a 30.0 average finish. Almirola could really use some Marcos Ambrose tutelage on this track type. He should definitely be better at these venues.

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