Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2014 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
2013 Stats: Points Finish 5th, 2 Poles, 0 Wins, 10 Top Fives, 22 Top Tens, Average Running Position 11.5, Average Finish 12.6, Laps Led 342, Driver Rating 98.45
Strengths- Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s #1 strength last season was his consistency. In 2013 he had a career high 22 top tens. Look for him to have his best days on flat tracks, short tracks and intermediate tracks.
Weaknesses- Don’t look for Dale Earnhardt Jr. to win often. Since 2007 he’s only won twice and both victories were at Michigan. Part of the reason for his lack of wins is that he doesn’t close the deal at the end of races.
NASCAR 2014 Printable Schedule
Intermediate Track Grade- A-, Intermediate tracks are good venues for Dale Earnhardt Jr. and last season he scored the 13th most points. That ranking is weighed down by some really bad results. At the end of 2013 this team was very impressive on intermediate tracks. If it wasn’t for an engine failure at Chicagoland and some sort of problem at Charlotte he would’ve finished in the top ten in every Chase race. In the Chase minus his Chicagoland engine failure on this track type he had a 6.0 average finish and a 5.2 average running position. Those numbers aren’t that dissimilar from Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth.
Flat Track Grade- A-, Only six-time champion Jimmie Johnson scored more points on flat tracks than Dale Earnhardt Jr. in 2013. On this track type he had a 6.1 average finish and only had one result outside the top ten. Also on these tracks last season he had a 10.3 average running position and was one of three drivers who finished in the top fifteen every race.
On the big flat tracks in 2013 he had a phenomenal season (4.7 average finish). At Pocono last year he had results of 5th and 3rd. Recently at Pocono he’s been a very strong performer. In five of the last six races he’s had a top ten result. In the one race he didn’t have a top ten he had a car that was in contention for the win until he had problems. From a career standpoint Indy hasn’t been the best venue for him. His last two Indy results are 6th and 4th. Prior to that he only had two other top tens at Indy.
On the small flat tracks last season Junior scored the 2nd most points and had a 7.3 average finish. At New Hampshire he had results of 6th and 14th. Typically at New Hampshire he either gets a top ten or a teens finish. At Phoenix in 2013 he swept the top five. His 2013 results are his only top ten finishes on the new surface.
Jeff Gordon 2014 Fantasy NASCAR Preview
Short Track Grade- A-, Dale Earnhardt Jr. is a very capable short track driver. In 2013 on this track type he scored the 5th most points. On these tracks he had a 11.8 average result and finished in the top ten four times. It’s important to point out that he had zero top five results.
Bristol has been a solid track for Earnhardt Jr. Last season he was one of just four drivers who finished in the top ten both races. Prior to 2013 Earnhardt Jr. had five straight results between 11th and 16th.
Martinsville is the one short track he’s never visited victory lane. Last fall he finished 8th. In the two prior Martinsville races he had problems in the race and had results in the 20’s. Before those two races he had four straight top tens. Hendrick cars always do good at Martinsville so don’t be afraid to pick him there.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s fantasy value at Richmond is around 10th. In the last four RIR races he has a 9.8 average finish and is one of just four drivers who have finished in the top fifteen every race. His Richmond results last season were 13th and 10th.
Restrictor Plate Track Grade- A-, Typically on plate tracks I describe Dale Earnhardt Jr. as a driver with overrated fantasy value. I stand by those remarks. His last win on this track type was nearly a decade ago. Last season on plate tracks Dale Earnhardt Jr. had one of his better season’s in a long time. In 2013 he scored the 2nd most points in the series on this track type. On these tracks he had a 7.3 average finish and only had one result outside the top ten. His highlight of the season on these venues was his 2nd place result in the Daytona 500.
Road Course Track Grade- B-, Road course racing isn’t a strength of Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s and it never will be. These just aren’t good venues for him. Since 2006 at Watkins Glen he has a 27.5 average finish. His 72.0 driver rating ranks as the 23rd best in the series over this stretch of races. Last season he was involved in an accident and finished 30th.
At Infineon he’s never finished in the top ten. He’s not as bad here as many people would probably think. In 43% percent of his starts he’s finished between 11th and 13th. Last season he finished 12th.
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