Phoenix The Profit On CNBC 500 Fantasy Confidence Ranking Picks

1. Kevin Harvick – Kevin Harvick is a good fantasy pick following practice for the Phoenix The Profit On CNBC 500. Keselowski thought Harvick had the “stand out car” and Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s crew chief said the #4 car was crazy fast. In Happy Hour Harvick told his team he’s good in 1-2 but he wants more grip on exit. In practice #2 he had the best 10 lap, 5 lap and overall average speeds. On Sunday Kevin Harvick will be starting in 13th in a brand new Stewart-Haas Racing Chevy. Although he’s not starting in the top ten it shouldn’t be viewed as a huge problem. This race has been won from a starting position outside the top ten over 50% percent of the time. On the current track configuration Kevin Harvick has thrived. Over the last four races he has the best driver rating, best average finish (4.3), best average running position (5.8) and has led the second most laps (172). Last fall at Phoenix he had a strong car and became the first driver with multiple wins on the current track layout. In the event he had the best drive rating, a 5th place average running position, led 70 laps and earned the #1 position in the PROS Rankings. In the spring race last season he felt he had a top three car but he had a broken left front rotor that hampered his day (finished 13th). In 2012 at Phoenix he had results of 1st and 2nd. Including the races on the old configuration at Phoenix he’s gone to victory lane four times. Richmond is the most similar track on the schedule and last spring he went to victory lane.

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2. Jimmie Johnson – It’s hard to go wrong when Jimmie Johnson is your fantasy pick at Phoenix. This weekend it appears he has a strong car underneath him. In practice #2 he had the 5th best 10 lap average. In Happy Hour he said his car was driving nice and was rolling  good into turn 3 and is a touch free off turn 4. On Sunday Johnson will start the race in 4th. That’s one position better than where he started the race last fall. In that race he finished 3rd and earned the 3rd best driver rating. He could’ve finished better but he had contact with other cars a few times throughout the race. The strength of his car in the race was being good over long runs. When other cars dropped off over long runs he advanced through the field. On Sunday Jimmie Johnson will be using that very chassis once again. Last spring at Phoenix Johnson finished 2nd and earned the 2nd best driver rating. In each race at Phoenix last season Johnson led 1 lap. On the new Phoenix track configuration minus his fall 2012 tire failure he has a 5.8 average finish and a 9.5 average running position.

Recommended Reading: Phoenix Post Practice Predictions (more fantasy opinion following practice), Practice Notes, Practice Speeds, Qualifying Results, PROS Rankings, Scouting Report

3. Brad Keselowski – On Sunday Brad Keselowski will lead the field when the green flag waves. This race has been won from the pole 11.4% percent of the time. The chassis he’ll be piloting is brand new. This should be taken as a plus especially when you consider the new aero package NASCAR has in place this season. Recently at Phoenix Brad Keselowski has been one of the best drivers. Over the last four races he belongs in the conversation of who the best driver is. In the races over this stretch he’s averaging the second most points per race, has the second best average finish (6.5), the second best average running position (7.5), and the third best driver rating (111.2). Also over that stretch of races he’s the only driver who finished in the top 11 every race. Last fall at Phoenix Brad Keselowski had a good car. He finished 11th, led 29 laps, had a 9th place average running position and earned the 7th best driver rating. In the 2013 spring race at Phoenix he finished 4th, had a 7th place average running position, and earned the 3rd best driver rating. In fall 2012 Keselowski was very competitive. In that race he finished 6th and led 10 laps. In that event he performed better than his result. In that race he earned my #1 position in the PROS Rankings. What happened is that as soon as he took the lead from Kyle Busch with 79 laps to go Jimmie Johnson wrecked the following lap. After that he drove conservative and no longer raced for the win because of the championship implications involved in that race. On Sunday Keselowski will be without his crew chief. Paul Wolfe left to be with his wife who will give birth soon. His team engineer will serve as his crew chief. This weekend I wouldn’t be shocked to see Keselowski win one for his head wrench.