Post Practice Fantasy NASCAR Predictions: Phoenix – The Profit on CNBC 500

Another Chevy Domination at Phoenix

Now the real fantasy racing season starts. Phoenix International Raceway was repaved and reconfigured in the middle of the 2011 season, which gives us five races of data to now analyze. There is really no point in looking at the numbers before that–as it is now a completely different race track–and maybe not even the first race in the fall of 2011. During that event, it was clear that most teams were lost–especially Hendrick. Kasey Kahne won that race (he was driving for Red Bull at the time) and Jimmie Johnson finished 14th without any major problems (if that tells you anything). For all you number crunchers, I have averaged the finishes and driver ratings over the five races on the “new” Phoenix, and those can be found by clicking here.

On Friday, we avoided potential rainfall and got both practice and qualifying in. Daytona 500 champion Dale Earnhardt, Jr. was quickest in that first practice (click here for results) and we’ll have an all-Penske front row leading us to the green on Sunday, as Brad Keselowski took the top spot in qualifying ahead of teammate Joey Logano. Click here for the full starting lineup of The Profit on CNBC 500. Kevin Harvick dominated both practice sessions on Saturday, and you can find those results here: Practice #2 — Happy Hour. Also, be sure to check out Ryan’s notes on each practice here: Practice #2 — Happy Hour.

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Final Top 15 Ranking For The Profit on CNBC 500:

11. Clint Bowyer – Starts 14th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Clint is one of the best flat track racers in the garage, but for some reason he hasn’t found much success at Phoenix International Raceway–both on the new and old pavement. Since the reconfiguration, Bowyer has an average finish of 18.8 in the desert with zero laps led and a best driver rating of 101.0. It should be noted, however, that his 28th-place finish in the fall 2012 race was due to Jeff Gordon wrecking him. Clint was running solidly inside the top 10 at the time. On the old Phoenix, Bowyer attempted 12 events but posted just four top 10 finishes and led a total of 21 laps over all those years. It doesn’t make sense to me either. That being said, sometimes it’s not good to get lost in past history. The #15 Toyota was real fast off the truck on Friday, ending up 7th in that first practice session. Clint wound up a disappointing 14th in qualifying later that day. In the two practice sessions on Saturday, the #15 Toyota wound up 18th and 22nd on the speed charts. Still, I’m cautiously optimistic that Bowyer can challenge for a top 10 this Sunday, and this team needs to get back on track after that blown engine in Daytona last weekend.

12. Ryan Newman – Starts 15th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

“The Rocketman” is with a new team this year, but that doesn’t take away from the fact that he is a very good flat track driver. Also, keep in mind that Jeff Burton had some decent success in this #31 Chevrolet at Phoenix: he wound up 10th in this event last season and also posted results of 4th, 13th, and 17th in Cup races here after the repave. Looking at Newman’s stats, he has six top 10s in the last eight Phoenix races. Five of those events have been on the “new” track, and three of those events ended with “The Rocketman” inside the top 10–although it’s worth noting that all three of those were in the November races. Newman was middle-of-the-road in Practice #2 on Saturday (24th-quickest) but found some speed in Happy Hour, posting the 3rd-best lap. The #31 Chevrolet isn’t that fast, but a top 10 isn’t out of the question.

13. Kurt Busch – Starts 10th – Yahoo! A Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

Kurt Busch is using Ryan Newman’s old equipment this weekend in Phoenix, and the chassis (No. 826) is the same one that the latter finished 10th with in the fall race here last November. This #41 team struggled a small bit in Practice #2 on Saturday (16th-quickest and 15th in ten-lap average) but Kurt found some speed in Happy Hour and ended up 4th on the speed chart. That being said, I don’t think he has a top 5 car by any means. While driving with Funiture Row Racing, the elder Busch brother posted top 10s in two of his three starts at Phoenix, including a 5th here last November. When he starts up front here, he usually finishes up front, too. Kurt will roll off the grid in 10th on Sunday and should be a solid fantasy pick for a 10th-15th-place finish in The Profit on CNBC 500.

14. Kyle Larson – Starts 7th – Yahoo! C Group
**Risk Factor: High Risk**

There are about the same number of things to like about Kyle Larson this weekend as there are to not like about him. Personally, he doesn’t really fit into my gameplan of playing it on the conservative side in week #2, but this speed is somewhat hard to ignore. The rookie went out and qualified 7th on Friday and then went out in Practice #2 on Saturday and posted the 3rd-fastest lap and 9th-best ten-lap average. He was real strong once again in Happy Hour, ending up 2nd behind Kevin Harvick on the speed chart. Remember, this #42 Chevrolet is the same car that Juan Montoya found some mild success with at Phoenix over the last two-and-a-half years; in the five races since the reconfiguring and repavement, Montoya never finished worse than 15th. Talent-wise, I give the edge to Larson, so we could see a really good run out of the rookie here on Sunday. However, he has to be one of the riskiest picks in the garage, especially after that blunder in Daytona last weekend. Larson ran four Cup races in 2013 and had engine failures in two of them. In the others (Texas and Homestead) he finished 23rd and 15th, respectively. In the Phoenix Nationwide races last season Kyle ended up 13th and 32nd. Don’t get too caught up in they hype this weekend; Kyle Larson isn’t going to win The Profit on CNBC 500, and he’s going to need a perfect race to post the top 10 Cup finish of his career.

15. Tony Stewart – Starts 20th – Yahoo! B Group
**Risk Factor: Medium Risk**

“Smoke” is already fed up with reporters asking him about how his leg is feeling, but he knows that if he goes out there and performs those questions will start to go away. The #14 ended up 20th in qualifying on Friday, but I’m confident that Tony can make his way towards the front once “The Profit on CNBC 500” goes green. In Practice #2 on Saturday, Stewart posted the 7th-best lap and wound up 6th on the ten-lap average chart. In final practice he ended up 18th on the speed chart. Keep in mind that in the first race on this “new” Phoenix, “Smoke” had arguably the best car, leading 160 of the 312 laps en route to a 3rd-place finish. He finished 8th in this event last year and could challenge for a top 10 this weekend, too. Personally, I’d still like to see him get a few races under his belt (and good runs) before I take him in fantasy. This #14 Chevrolet is running a brand new chassis this weekend, like many other teams have decided to do.

A Few Words About Other Drivers:

Jamie McMurray is being over-shadowed by his rookie teammate this weekend, but the #1 Chevrolet actually has quite a bit of speed in the desert, not to mention he starts up front (3rd). Jamie was 2nd-fastest in Practice #2–as well as 2nd in ten-lap average–and ended up 7th on the speed chart in Happy Hour. The only problem I have with him is that he just hasn’t been good at Phoenix since the repavement. McMurray was 17th in the first race on the new track and ended up 18th here last fall, but those are his only finishes inside the top 20. He’s a pretty nice sleeper option but it’s quite risky to take him on Sunday. Brian Vickers has never made a Cup start at the “new” Phoenix but he qualified 2nd here in the March Nationwide race last season, ending up 17th and one lap down. I’m not sure what happened to him that race but he did lead 7 laps. Vickers will start Sunday’s The Profit on CNBC 500 in 16th and has a shot at a top 15, and possibly a top 10 depending on how the race plays out. The #55 ranked 9th on the speed chart in Happy Hour and had the 7th-best ten-lap average during Practice #2 on Saturday. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. was my sleeper of the week in Daytona really paid off fantasy owners with his top 10 finish in The Great American Race, and I see no reason why he shouldn’t be considered for your top under-the-radar this weekend in Phoenix, either. In his first two Cup starts at Phoenix in 2013, Ricky wound up 12th and 16th, and in the two races at Richmond (which has similar banking to Phoenix but is shorter) he finished 16th and 10th. You have to believe that with a year of Sprint Cup action under his belt that Stenhouse is only going to be better in 2014. The #17 Ford was lacking on the speed charts Saturday (ranking 26th and 28th) but the Roush-Fenway cars tend to sandbag before the race. Austin Dillon is running the same chassis that Kevin Harvick took to victory lane here last fall, but the #3 car is nothing special this weekend. He’ll roll off the grid in 24th on Sunday and run around there all day long with a shot at a high teens finish. Casey Mears might be worth a shot in really deep leagues. He has some momentum after that top 10 run in the Daytona 500 last weekend and starts 18th in Sunday’s The Profit on CNBC 500. For what it’s worth, he ended up 14th in this event last season. I wouldn’t expect anything that good this weekend but a top 20 isn’t out of the question. Finally, Greg Biffle starts 6th and kind of went under my radar this weekend. He was 17th-fastest in Practice #2 and ended up 13th in Happy Hour. Biffle has finished 13th or better in four of the five races on the “new” Phoenix and should end up around there this Sunday as well.

Drivers To Avoid:

Matt Kenseth – Matt Kenseth is a top, elite driver in the Sprint Cup Series. You don’t expect a top 15 finish out of him (with a small possibility at a top 10)–and that is exactly what you’re going to get if you take the #20 on Sunday. Here last November was where Kenseth gave the 2013 championship to Jimmie Johnson, and he only has one top 10 finish in the five races at Phoenix since the track was repaved and reconfigured. Don’t worry, Kenseth fans, he’ll be back atop the rankings next week when we get to Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Until then, go with someone else in the desert.

Danica Patrick – The reason I’m including NASCAR’s #1 media star in the avoid list is because she posted some decent laps during the practice sessions on Saturday (15th in Practice #2, 16th in Happy Hour) and we continue to hear about her near-top 10 run here at Phoenix in 2012. Some people even think she has a top 15 car for tomorrow. Fools gold…err silver. Danica will start The Profit on CNBC 500 in 33rd, and while she does probably have a shot at a mid-20s finish, the only way she will even sniff the top 15 on Sunday is if there is a bunch of wrecked race cars–which wouldn’t be unusual for Phoenix (video here).